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Williams%R, SAR X-over 15 minute candles

  • #6,501
  • Dec 19, 2024 10:54am Dec 19, 2024 10:54am
Finally got a reversal after bearish divergence on a double bottom, best trade of the day and I am done. I'm going to convert some dollars to pesos as last 2 days have moved peso down against the dollar.
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  • #6,502
  • Dec 20, 2024 2:55am Dec 20, 2024 2:55am
hi, this is first post in this thread, however I was checking on it for several month. I really liked the original idea about Williams%R and Sar over, but I see that strategy changed a bit and got better. Do you mind telling me what exactly you use to trade(which indicators and how?) I feel like the only thing remaining is sl rules(below swing low if long and vice virsa). Also, I never tried trading it because mostly people trade e-mini future contracts, however I trade Us30, Ger40 and XAU/USD only, do these have good record using this strategy. Thanks in advance.
  • #6,503
  • Dec 20, 2024 8:02am Dec 20, 2024 8:02am
Quoting Ju4ara
I really liked the original idea about Williams%R and Sar over, but I see that strategy changed a bit and got better.
If you like the original idea, then you should read the beginning pages of this thread and explore that system.

The current method is not better than the original in that the new method is very difficult to understand trade and money management, which is what you are really asking after with your post.

If stop loss and trademanagement are not obvious to you after looking at the charts posted here over the past several months, that should tell you that this method isn't for you. I know it isn't for me. I'd have no idea how to work it. There are many easier edges out there for you, starting with the original PSAR/Williams%R method.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #6,504
  • Dec 20, 2024 8:38am Dec 20, 2024 8:38am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} There are many easier edges out there for you, starting with the original PSAR/Williams%R method.
I agree that Ju4ara should use whatever they are comfortable with, but I've never seen any system that has an edge in and of itself, it's all about the skill of the trader.

I actually did a mechanical backtest of the initial strategy a while back and unsurprisingly there was no edge there.

I wouldn't know where to begin with whatever the strategy is supposed to be right now, particularly because the entries seem to all be at the start of a candle before the move in that candle occurs and gives a signal.
NinjaTrader/cTrader Coder, @backtested on telegram
  • #6,505
  • Dec 20, 2024 8:59am Dec 20, 2024 8:59am
Quoting backtested.
{quote} I agree that Ju4ara should use whatever they are comfortable with, but I've never seen any system that has an edge in and of itself, it's all about the skill of the trader. I actually did a mechanical backtest of the initial strategy a while back and unsurprisingly there was no edge there. I wouldn't know where to begin with whatever the strategy is supposed to be right now, particularly because the entries seem to all be at the start of a candle before the move in that candle occurs and gives a signal.
You are right, the edge is always the trader, not the strat. Making a bot trading with mechanical conditions such as ADX crossing 50, RSI crossing 50, and HA candles being shaven is extremely easy to do, but in reality you dont see that much people making money with bots.

Thats why I dont agree with Vidvad in the sense that I dont think there is a really better system than anyone, I think a really good trader can make money with any system, the keys are good management, and that is part of the trader
  • #6,506
  • Dec 20, 2024 9:00am Dec 20, 2024 9:00am
Quoting backtested.
{quote} I agree that Ju4ara should use whatever they are comfortable with, but I've never seen any system that has an edge in and of itself, it's all about the skill of the trader. I actually did a mechanical backtest of the initial strategy a while back and unsurprisingly there was no edge there. I wouldn't know where to begin with whatever the strategy is supposed to be right now, particularly because the entries seem to all be at the start of a candle before the move in that candle occurs and gives a signal.
I am convinced that the secret to making any method profitable is fixed stop loss, fixed take profit. If you want to trail a stop loss you had better have objectively defined rules to do so and the data to back up that trailing offers sufficient opportunities with a frequency that allows positive expectation. Also, overtime, certain edges can become dull or lose their positive expectancy. The method at the beginning of this thread worked very well when currency futures were moving 100+ pips per day during the NY session. Now? Maybe it can work on the index futures like NQ or YM. However, the follow through on those indexes is not as consistent as one would need for the original method to work on an M15. However, on an M1? I could definitely design a money management scheme to take profits regularly with the original method.

The current method makes no sense to me and honestly, I don't see how rocky is making a regular profit from it. The entries and exits seem to be nearly random.

Even with discretion, that discretion must operate inside a technical frame that provides objective guidance to the trader.

As far as the "skill" of a trader, the only skill required is the mental and emotional equipoise that lets you trade your plan without fear, greed, FOMO or any other of the main drivers of trading erros causing the trader to go on tilt.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #6,507
  • Dec 20, 2024 9:08am Dec 20, 2024 9:08am
Quoting roanfox
{quote} You are right, the edge is always the trader, not the strat.
The edge is the strategy. However, most traders lack the ability to trade according to any strat's rules.


Quoting roanfox
{quote} Thats why I dont agree with Vidvad in the sense that I dont think there is a really better system than anyone, I think a really good trader can make money with any system, the keys are good management, and that is part of the trader
You are mistaken. You agree with me completely. If you were to go to my journal's recent posts, this is exactly what I have been saying: I can be profitable now with any method that has an edge. There must be an edge to exploit. Edges are exploited, as you say, by having a money management scheme designed to exploit that edge. But you can't just take ANY method and say it has an edge, because there are some methods that are complete garbage. Some methods are fine for one market but would be a disaster applied to another market.

There are consistently profitable systems, and some are definitely "better" than others. But again, we agree that the trader and his or her ability to follow the system using a money management scheme designed to exploit that system's edge are what matters.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #6,508
  • Dec 20, 2024 9:20am Dec 20, 2024 9:20am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} The current method makes no sense to me and honestly, I don't see how rocky is making a regular profit from it. The entries and exits seem to be nearly random.
Almost like he can see the future isn't it?

Quoting vidvad
{quote} Even with discretion, that discretion must operate inside a technical frame that provides objective guidance to the trader. As far as the "skill" of a trader, the only skill required is the mental and emotional equipoise that lets you trade your plan without fear, greed, FOMO or any other of the main drivers of trading erros causing the trader to go on tilt.
Call it skill, call it discretion, whatever you like. This is the real edge.
I do agree that the mental/emotional strength to stick to the plan is very important and not easy, but many people act as if this is the main (or only) thing you need to have to maintain an edge and I just don't think that is true.
NinjaTrader/cTrader Coder, @backtested on telegram
  • #6,509
  • Dec 20, 2024 9:37am Dec 20, 2024 9:37am
Finally, few people come to realize that all Rocky does is draws circles around the PA and places numbers that come to his mind.

Think about it, never a losing day in the last 4 years.

100% of you would have a never loosing day if you learn how to draw circles and numbers on the chart.

Rocky is a nice guy but have a strange hobby of drawing circles, placing numbers on the charts and give unintelligible responses to rookie questions.

Did I mention Rocky is a nice guy? Cheers
  • #6,510
  • Edited 10:30am Dec 20, 2024 9:41am | Edited 10:30am
Dow Futures 5 Min. TF

In the meantime, here is what real live trading looks like, at times, frustration, after getting stopped out on the first trade and getting BE on my 2nd trade within 5 points, PA went my way for my goal of 200 points, I left behind - Real Trading.
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  • #6,511
  • Dec 20, 2024 10:24am Dec 20, 2024 10:24am
Quoting backtested.
{quote} Call it skill, call it discretion, whatever you like. This is the real edge. I do agree that the mental/emotional strength to stick to the plan is very important and not easy, but many people act as if this is the main (or only) thing you need to have to maintain an edge and I just don't think that is true.
I think it isn't helpful to deny that certain market variables exist which can be objectively identified and define an edge. An edge, as Mark Douglas notes, is simply the existence of a set of variables such that when these variables appear, there is a higher probability of one thing happening than another. For example, when a 9 ema crosses above a 20 ema, at that moment, there is a higher probability that price will continue higher than that it will reverse lower. That is an edge.

What is needed in addition to the edge is how and when does one enter in the direction of the edge and what stop loss and take profit does the historic data suggest is necessary and sufficient to make a profit over time.

One needs the edge, one needs money management, and then one needs the mental discipline to trade that edge with that money management.

I had a bit of an epiphany about six weeks ago. I trade three different systems, all based primarily on price action and very little dependence upon indicators to define my variables.

Since my epiphany, my trading has gotten more and more profitable and is more consistent than it has ever been. Again, I have been discussing this from time to time in my journal. The more recent posts there (since mid-November) will give someone a good sense of the nature of that epiphany and how maybe one might be able to trigger such an epiphany for himself.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #6,512
  • Dec 20, 2024 10:39am Dec 20, 2024 10:39am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} The edge is the strategy. However, most traders lack the ability to trade according to any strat's rules. {quote} You are mistaken. You agree with me completely. If you were to go to my journal's recent posts, this is exactly what I have been saying: I can be profitable now with any method that has an edge. There must be an edge to exploit. Edges are exploited, as you say, by having a money management scheme designed to exploit that edge. But you can't just take ANY method and say it has an edge, because there are some methods that are complete...
I agree, but what I really was referring to is that the Edge for me is the whole package (strategy, management, mentality), but its just a personal way of seeing it, in a general consensus the edge is the strategy that gives you a better probability chance of something happening. I dont really trade a specific setup or system, I realized that when my trading really came to the place of being profitable, is because I saw information in the charts that showed me a higher probability of going in one direction, which I later had to find the correct place to execute that allows me in terms of mantaining that probability the best RR I can get, and finally having the right mentality in managing that position, specially in the first 5 or so minutes where I can really tell if this is a good trade.

I think traders usually make the mistake of focusing too much at the start of the journey (I know I did) on the edge, strategy, etc. But barely any time in developing good management and mental skills for this, thats the reason why you have all this traders being succesful in the beginning but having one bad day and blowing the account inmediately, they let their emotions take control of the wheel.
  • #6,513
  • Dec 20, 2024 10:56am Dec 20, 2024 10:56am
Quoting Ju4ara
hi, this is first post in this thread, however I was checking on it for several month. I really liked the original idea about Williams%R and Sar over, but I see that strategy changed a bit and got better. Do you mind telling me what exactly you use to trade(which indicators and how?) I feel like the only thing remaining is sl rules(below swing low if long and vice virsa). Also, I never tried trading it because mostly people trade e-mini future contracts, however I trade Us30, Ger40 and XAU/USD only, do these have good record using this strategy....
If you like the original Idea try it. Does it work on the instruments you mention no idea I've never traded them. I trade ES only now.
  • #6,514
  • Dec 20, 2024 11:00am Dec 20, 2024 11:00am
Good discussion... I agree with Vidvad....

One needs to have a methodology with edge.. otherwise you will never become consistent and profitable.

In my opinion you need Edge in three areas that encompass the entire picture of trading.

Those three areas are often called the three-legged stool of trading...

The 3M s of trading...

Method

Money management
Mindset
It takes a lot of work to discover your Edge in all three of those areas and execute it consistently...

No matter how good you are you will always have failures in all of these areas.

I just posted over in the flying Dutchman thread a tweet by Lance Breitstein.

He talks a lot about Edge (not in my post).. and how he finds there's a higher probability of Edge on a lower time frame...

Just based on the probabilities of it's easier for, (I hate to use the word predict..) but it's easier to predict what may happen on the chart in the next few minutes versus say the next 4 hours or day.. etc

And using that edge to be able to scale in size so you can actually make money scaling up trade size

Anyways in that post I put up.. it talks about hindsight and how so many of the trolls poo poo somebody's chart because it's from the past or doesn't show a live executed trade..

Quite honestly if that's your thinking then you're missing the picture..

Hindsight is where you are going to find your Edge for both your method and your money management through back testing the charts.. studying the charts.. and then through forward testing...

Just my rambling two pesos on the subject...

Cheers!
Master your Mind,,,Master the Market
  • #6,515
  • Dec 20, 2024 11:01am Dec 20, 2024 11:01am
Quoting backtested.
{quote} I agree that Ju4ara should use whatever they are comfortable with, but I've never seen any system that has an edge in and of itself, it's all about the skill of the trader. I actually did a mechanical backtest of the initial strategy a while back and unsurprisingly there was no edge there. I wouldn't know where to begin with whatever the strategy is supposed to be right now, particularly because the entries seem to all be at the start of a candle before the move in that candle occurs and gives a signal.
I've never back tested a trading system in my life, personally think back testing is useless. No on entries I enter near close of candles. As far as edges I do believe a system can offer an edge but that's not going to make system profitable Money management, PA and discipline make money.
  • #6,516
  • Dec 20, 2024 11:09am Dec 20, 2024 11:09am
Quoting vidvad
{quote} I think it isn't helpful to deny that certain market variables exist which can be objectively identified and define an edge. An edge, as Mark Douglas notes, is simply the existence of a set of variables such that when these variables appear, there is a higher probability of one thing happening than another. For example, when a 9 ema crosses above a 20 ema, at that moment, there is a higher probability that price will continue higher than that it will reverse lower. That is an edge. What is needed in addition to the edge is how and when does...
Everything is risk vs reward so "a higher probability that price will continue higher than that it will reverse lower" doesn't itself determine an edge.
If it's as simple as you make out then it has nothing to do with mentality, just code a bot and let it trade for you.
I don't doubt that it's possible to make a bot that can be left alone for long periods of time (i.e. to objectively identify an edge), but I think it would be significantly more complex than any manual trader's rules.
NinjaTrader/cTrader Coder, @backtested on telegram
  • #6,517
  • Dec 20, 2024 11:33am Dec 20, 2024 11:33am
Quoting rockypoint
{quote} No on entries I enter near close of candles.
Can't be that near the close because this is what this one trade from yesterday would have looked like entering and exiting at closing price (regular 1 min candles shown).
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NinjaTrader/cTrader Coder, @backtested on telegram
  • #6,518
  • Dec 20, 2024 11:47am Dec 20, 2024 11:47am
Quoting backtested.
{quote} "a higher probability that price will continue higher than that it will reverse lower" doesn't itself determine an edge.
It isn't open for debate to be fair. That is the very definition of an edge.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #6,519
  • Dec 20, 2024 12:02pm Dec 20, 2024 12:02pm
Quoting bluesteele
The 3M s of trading... Method Money management Mindset
I knew instinctively the need for money management that included taking profits and not just having a stop loss in place for many years. It just made sense to me that if all you did was place a stop loss while leaving profits to chance, you basically were trading with a solid plan to lose and no plan to win.

With respect to method, I didn't think I had a problem with this. I thought I coud evaluate different methods fairly accurately and indeed, this was true. I am a skilled evaluator of tested edges.

However, I never fully understood the nature of edge, the true power of an edge with mathematical certainty attached to it. It wasn't until I experienced what I call my "roulette epiphany" in mid-November that I had that "Aha" moment I needed. Once I had that, it was as though someone had "flipped the switch" inside my mind that allowed the perfect operation of any method with money management and a carefree mindset.

Once I really understood the power a mathematical edge, the true singularity of edge as having its own existence independent of money management and mindset that all three M's of trading came together for me in a way they had never done before.
Life itself is a privilege, but to live life to the fullest is a choice
  • #6,520
  • Dec 20, 2024 12:03pm Dec 20, 2024 12:03pm
Quoting vidvad
{quote} It isn't open for debate to be fair. That is the very definition of an edge.
No it isn't.
A statistic such as X is more likely than Y does not determine an edge if you don't consider risk vs reward.
If you could say something like it's more likely to go up by X points than down by X points under certain conditions then yes that would be an edge.
NinjaTrader/cTrader Coder, @backtested on telegram
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