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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #381
  • Edited 6:15pm Jul 25, 2007 6:01pm | Edited 6:15pm
Quoting dedhed
Considering that you weren't being addressed in the post, SL, I don't know how in the hell as simple a statement as 850>500 caused such a lengthy post on ATR and stop size- it appeared to me that Jacko was merely stating that 850 is greater than 500, and that multiplying that difference between the two time the number of contracts would have increased his earnings by the proportionate amount. Why that simple statement triggered such an outpouring of dreck on your part, I don't know, but welcome to my ignore list.
Hi Dedhed and all concerned =)

1. This is a public thread in a public forum. Opinions and information are exchanged freely and without censorship as long as abiding the rules. I saw - this is my personal perception - jacko needlessly making the assumption he was "missing out" and explained why this needn't be so.

2. I pointed out how using the SAME amount of RISK can make more money with less pips. I know what jacko meant, but my point was about the profitability at fixed risk, not fixed stake / lot size. It's obvious that using the same fixed amount of lots per pip that more pips make more money.

3. If a simple example of risk based money management - which to me was quite an enlightment when I first read and realized this - that serves as a way to optimize profit is cause for personal distress, I apologize.
It wasn't my intent to cause panic. Rather I was - as jacko always says and I love him for it - just trying to help

And ironic that I would be perceived as causing insult and therefore accused of false address when the person feeling insulted wasn't even the one I was trying to reach with my explanation

Also quite odd how outlinging an optimization of making as much money as possible is dreck. Perhaps our aims differ in this trading environment.

Take care,

SeekingLight

P.S. The "Why?" was meant as in "why kick yourself / punish yourself if you haven't done anything wrong" -> then why I think there's really not that much of a difference in money to be made there if that sort of sizing is used
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #382
  • Jul 25, 2007 8:13pm Jul 25, 2007 8:13pm
Hi Guys,

From Rule 1 in the FAQ.
'Debate is healthy and constructive; fighting is not. All members should treat others with respect and kindness on the forums.'

You have stated your opinions now let's get back to constructive and smart attitudes.

This thread is really good and I do not want it messed up. I was already concerned that Jacko was worried about getting flamed with the timing of his post in the last trade exit.

The FF strives hard to maintain it's high standard and where traders should feel comfortable to discuss and debate...but always with respect.

Cheers
Antra
  • #383
  • Jul 26, 2007 1:14am Jul 26, 2007 1:14am
Quoting jacko
This is me thinking out loud (or in writing).

Have just been having a review of the euro. Looks like the Euro is starting to roll over. This may be the start of another shallow correction, to around 1.3650? Have just tightened my SLs on my "buy and holds" (bought at 1.3300 and 1.3500 ) to 1.3750. May tighten SLs even closer in next 24 hours. Time to lock in some very substantial profits I think.


This is NOT a recommendation to any impressionable newbie to short the market. It is a recommendation to WAIT to find a better price to buy and profit from the long term UP trend.


But....I could be wwwwwwrong. (I have trouble saying that word...LOL)


.
Dudes, Another great slam dunk by the Master. he is a freakish trader. about a week ago he said to Mark and me that he thought that the market was stalling and that 3850 might be a short term top. he hit the taget by ONE pip.
thanks to him I have just ordered my new car.
I am a trader. this is going to be my life. I am a trader.
Thanks Jacko.
  • #384
  • Jul 26, 2007 1:23am Jul 26, 2007 1:23am
Quoting jacko
Hi SeekingLight,

It was just an "intuition" thing that the market was rolling over. Hard to define...I still think that this market is bullish, but I also thought that the shallow correction would be around 150 pips and, with the large number of "buy and hold" contracts that I was holding I didnt want to lose that much of my profit.

I can get back into this market in about 4 seconds (per broker trading platform) so I wasn't concerned about making a mistake and not being able to get back in to the bull trend.


.
Jacko has this thing called a thing that the market is "rolling over". it is hard to show but I am staring to get an idea of wwhen it happens.
Jacko, can you explain it?
  • #385
  • Jul 26, 2007 3:17am Jul 26, 2007 3:17am
Quoting newbietrader101
Jacko has this thing called a thing that the market is "rolling over". it is hard to show but I am staring to get an idea of wwhen it happens.
Jacko, can you explain it?
Hey newbie, you're even starting to write like Jacko lol, but i could be wwwwrong of course.

Cracking thread Jacko, long may it continue.

M
  • #386
  • Jul 26, 2007 3:42am Jul 26, 2007 3:42am
Hmm ... great call by jacko ...

SeekingLight

Quote
Simply because I am confounded...why did you close out ALL positions if just a day or two ago you were aiming for 1.4+ on the long term positions?
I'm not jacko but if I understand his method correctly, what jacko is doing is
1) get out before the retracement to protect profit. (market never go up straight)
2) get back in after the retracement to ride on the bull to 1.4+. (buy the dips)

His bullish view remains intact.

Please correct me if I'm wrong, jacko. (I could be wwronggg..... )
  • #387
  • Jul 26, 2007 3:55am Jul 26, 2007 3:55am
Cool down, guys...

If Jacko says that euro is stalling and that st top might be at 3850, take it rather as a challenge than "wisdomw from the great oracle" - no pun Jacko ;-) - and try to figure it our yourselves why things might be as Jacko claims.

The first one is pretty obvious when you look at the euro 4H chart, euro is really stalling. The explanation to the second one you find when you draw a trendline on D or W hcart starting from May 06 - or even Aug 05.

So next time you'll be able to make your own forecasts...

Quoting newbietrader101
Dudes, Another great slam dunk by the Master. he is a freakish trader. about a week ago he said to Mark and me that he thought that the market was stalling and that 3850 might be a short term top. he hit the taget by ONE pip.
thanks to him I have just ordered my new car.
I am a trader. this is going to be my life. I am a trader.
Thanks Jacko.
  • #388
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:49am Jul 26, 2007 4:49am
Quoting luqmanz
Hmm .. on second thought .. that's actually a better idea ...
Thanks for reminding me.

3300 seems like a strong support though because it seems to me the history is repeating.

2500 was a resistance in Sep 2005 - it became a support in Jun 2006
2900 was resistance in August 2006 - it became a support in Jan 2007

Fiber is funny. The gap between those supports are 400 pips. LOL
Seems like the banks love to keep it simple.

And 3330 was a strong support, now we're at 3700........
  • #389
  • Jul 26, 2007 6:20am Jul 26, 2007 6:20am
Quoting Rocroy
Cool down, guys...

If Jacko says that euro is stalling and that st top might be at 3850, take it rather as a challenge than "wisdomw from the great oracle" - no pun Jacko ;-) - and try to figure it our yourselves why things might be as Jacko claims.

The first one is pretty obvious when you look at the euro 4H chart, euro is really stalling. The explanation to the second one you find when you draw a trendline on D or W hcart starting from May 06 - or even Aug 05.

So next time you'll be able to make your own forecasts...
Sure it's easy to see the stalling action on the 4 hour chart for the last couple weeks.

However, I see two other times since early June when it stalled for a week. Why wasn't that the "roll over"? Instead, it broke out each time. Traders that exited missed the breakouts.

And those were after a month-long decline in price, which violated short- and intermediate-term trendlines.

Also, could you post a chart? I don't see how one would make a trendline from Aug 05 or May 06. My daily chart has a line across bottoms in Nov 05 and Feb 06, and another line across bottoms in Feb 06 and Oct 06.
  • #390
  • Jul 26, 2007 8:40am Jul 26, 2007 8:40am
Blueruby, here's the chart. I have taken out other stuff that I use (mainly channels on several TMs and one indicator), so that the high trendline and low trendline would show properly. The channel is getting smaller...

So this chart "says" that euro goes down another 100 pips.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur trendlines.jpg Size: 98 KB


R

Quoting blueruby
Sure it's easy to see the stalling action on the 4 hour chart for the last couple weeks.

However, I see two other times since early June when it stalled for a week. Why wasn't that the "roll over"? Instead, it broke out each time. Traders that exited missed the breakouts.

And those were after a month-long decline in price, which violated short- and intermediate-term trendlines.

Also, could you post a chart? I don't see how one would make a trendline from Aug 05 or May 06. My daily chart has a line across bottoms in Nov 05 and Feb 06, and another line across bottoms in Feb 06 and Oct 06.
  • #391
  • Jul 26, 2007 8:48am Jul 26, 2007 8:48am
What a wonderful thread!

My first post on the forums, but I had to come in and just give a big thanks to Jacko and to everyone else here offering him good questions and sharing good advice of your own.

I'll be going live in a month or so and this kind of discussion is so inspiring and helpful! Thank you everyone!
  • #392
  • Jul 26, 2007 9:34am Jul 26, 2007 9:34am
i think you're missing the point here, this is jacko's thread so if he wants to call the ups and downs and follow them through here then thats his prerogative. and since he has a far better track record than most traders i've seen i think they make interesting discussion points too.

Quoting Rocroy
Cool down, guys...

If Jacko says that euro is stalling and that st top might be at 3850, take it rather as a challenge than "wisdomw from the great oracle" - no pun Jacko ;-) - and try to figure it our yourselves why things might be as Jacko claims.

The first one is pretty obvious when you look at the euro 4H chart, euro is really stalling. The explanation to the second one you find when you draw a trendline on D or W hcart starting from May 06 - or even Aug 05.

So next time you'll be able to make your own forecasts...
  • #393
  • Edited 9:48am Jul 26, 2007 9:36am | Edited 9:48am
Quoting Rocroy
Blueruby, here's the chart. I have taken out other stuff that I use (mainly channels on several TMs and one indicator), so that the high trendline and low trendline would show properly. The channel is getting smaller...

So this chart "says" that euro goes down another 100 pips.

Attachment

R
I see. You're drawing a line across the tops. Where do you get the 100? Looks to me like it should pull back to at least 3500.
  • #394
  • Jul 26, 2007 1:16pm Jul 26, 2007 1:16pm
... just trying to emphasize the learning aspect here: try to find out the justifications behind Jacko's statements (which have been great, but this thread will not last forever) and use those later on in similar situations.

R

Quoting Isotonic
i think you're missing the point here, this is jacko's thread so if he wants to call the ups and downs and follow them through here then thats his prerogative. and since he has a far better track record than most traders i've seen i think they make interesting discussion points too.
  • #395
  • Jul 26, 2007 1:23pm Jul 26, 2007 1:23pm
I guess that's how trendlines are generally drawn!

If you take the average angle of trends in earlier euro drawdowns, and use that to model the current downtrend, you can get a rough estimate of the total pull back (the crossing of the lower long trendline and current, estimated downtrend).

But that is only a "good" guess. Let's see what really happens...

R


Quoting blueruby
I see. You're drawing a line across the tops. Where do you get the 100? Looks to me like it should pull back to at least 3500.
  • #396
  • Jul 26, 2007 4:58pm Jul 26, 2007 4:58pm
Hi Jacko,

Do you know of a good forex fundamentals book to help understand the longer economical direction?

Thx for all your help in this forum!

Ran.
  • #397
  • Jul 26, 2007 9:26pm Jul 26, 2007 9:26pm
Seems like the price is stalling at 3700. Quite strong support there. I'm gonna apply anti-hedge at 3780-ish.
Anyone has the anti-hedge pending order ready ?
  • #398
  • Jul 27, 2007 8:15am Jul 27, 2007 8:15am
Quoting Wellspring
Confluence area, the key buy zone

edit: 3568 (former low) to 3550 (3556 the 50.0 fib off 3261 low)
perhaps Mon/Tues time target


GL WS
Wellspring, I have a question. As is so often with fib traders, it seems that every 10 or 15 pips there is a line on your chart, and even with multiple sets of fibs and your searching for confluence, they are still quite evenly distributed about. In other words, price could hit pretty much anywhere and be at a "fib level." How do you choose which areas to pick for a target? I know people use fibs, and I do myself at times, but with so many potential targets how are they really any help, as they are in the chart you posted?
  • #399
  • Jul 27, 2007 9:26am Jul 27, 2007 9:26am
Quoting Isotonic
while we wait for jacko, here is my explanation! for me, a rollover may occur when the price hits a support or resistance line, makes a few attempts to close above it and fails and then breaks in the opposite direction. normally there is a pattern of consolidation first when the daily or hourly range contracts which then expands if there is a credible break, which closes outside it, taking out the prior low (or high). perfect setup on the euro yesterday, using other trendlines as take profits.

look at the 4h below and you can see it all happening, a similar thing happened last time on the euro as well and the price flew down.

btw, last peak just inched over 13850 before breaking the other way. its amazing how jacko calls these turns so well. surely he must get one wrong sooner or later! lol.
Your charts are "simply elegant", yet powerful. After price touched 1.3770, which coincided with your declining TL, we all know what happened (a good area to add to short position? who knows, I'll leave it to the experts ). I remember, back few years ago, I used to look for your charts for confirmation if I wanted to initiate position. Please keep them coming.. if not here, perhaps in ISO chart thread...

R
  • #400
  • Jul 27, 2007 9:57am Jul 27, 2007 9:57am
[quote=Wellspring;1512138]
Quoting MPP


Yes MPP--no problem
I'll fool with some clearer looking attmts
png perhaps -to expand fr thumbnails

Confluence really is just an overlapping of Fibs within different ranges
Ideally you choose key ranges and key fibs within each range
and apply 2 or 3 ranges on a chart
EG. a 4hr or daily with 2 or 3 Fib ranges.
Then you look for the overlappings
and there are always some confluences
Some of course more represent key areas of supp/Res
and Market action often uncannily gravitates to them
due partly to the countless trading action that focuses
on Fib %ages

I trade always with them in mind as an important tool
of the top criteria of tools.

easy to get used to if that's your bag

Try it with just the Golden mean Fibs off a Daily chart and then a 4hr.
master the basics
Then the nuances fold in nicely.

Combo of TLs (properly drawn)
basic Fibs
an Oscillator of choice (eg. stochs, CCI)
former congestion areas of supp/Res
some basic chart patterns
and moderate knowledge of candle signals

that's an easy fair and a solid good beginning in the TA realm

Not the ticket for consistent profits
but a sharpened eye if you believe Tech analyses valuable


GL WS




Hi MPP and Wellspring,



Please dont take offence, but would you both take your private discussions elsewhere.



Thanks


.


.
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