USD/CAD

Very quiet thread. Maybe this pair is not popular and very little liquidity.

The price keeps climbing because I hold 1 lot of sells.

I never close the sells, the price cannot drop!

Why this pair keeps climbing?

waiting on Red cad news tomorrow

That is because USD is rising. Therefore, expect USD/CHF, USD/CAD, USD/JPY to rise while the other counter GU, EU, AU and NU will be falling.

It's a simple logic that you are also aware of

Why XAUUSD is climbing then?

In a simple terms Gold and BTC are like substitute to USD.

They are also a form of money with high patronage.

I don't want to border you with all Fundamentals surrounding the subject.

Because XAUUSD is a different story
Not everything moves in synchronization in the market.
You need to read about risk on risk off, google it and read very well about it, very important.
'Risk on' occurs when investors are optimistic and take on higher-risk investments. 'Risk off' happens during uncertainty, leading to safer investments.'
So you need to read to learn what goes up or down during these times.

Actually it is manipulation by the big banks/ financial institutions. They can control the up/down of any pair. All those chart patterns or forex news are just bluff for retail traders to believe that they have the chance to win.

How many times, going by the news, the pair "should" drop but didn't or rise but didn't. Then retail traders will say, the news is already factored in to bluff themselves.

Blab, blab..

Hahaha here we go again manipulation!
"Actually it is manipulation by the big banks/ financial institutions. They can control the up/down of any pair."
This is not true, banks can't manipulate or steer the market. Banks trade long term and have deep pockets so they can hold a drown down. If it was true we would see banks making tons of money and they don't need to do anything else.
"How many times, going by the news, the pair "should" drop but didn't or rise but didn't. Then retail traders will say, the news is already factored in to bluff themselves."
Traders will say anything to comfort themselves and find something to blame their loss on.
The market evolve and change overtime, what worked 10 years ago maybe won't work now. 20 years ago I used to put pending orders before the news 10 pips away from the actual price, some news used to move the market 100 or 200 on NFP. Nowadays market is not moving like that anymore. If you monitor the news the market is moving days before the news, and when the news is out it is moving maximum 50 pips, so trading the news is dead.
Trend is your friend, the news will affect the price for short time, then the price will follow the trend again. But also big news is the one that changes the trend specially related to interest rates.

Correction is requested. Then to 1.3950 and higher. But can do without a correction

This months' close - higher or lower?

Blue star is indication of continuation, or is it?

Place your bets... trade responsibly

Some analyst believes the turn is here; but so is the USA elections, anything can happen, it's Forex.

USD/CAD
The BoC reduced rates to 3.75% (50 BPS cut). In contrast, the FED only reduced rates by 25 BPS, with rates now sitting between 4.75% and 5%. Moreover, according to rumors, the FED may skip a rate cut in November. This narrative would be supported by a core PCE over 0.1% and lower-than-expected unemployment numbers. If this is the case, the USD could rise further, benefiting from a higher interest rate.
The USD could also profit from safe-haven flows in the coming weeks if tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate.
Another factor supporting the USD/CAD position is the latest COT report from 10/22/24, showing approximately 169,000 short positions versus 28,000 long non-commercial positions on CAD, with around 9,000 positions added to the short side compared to the previous week. Another confluence factor is the DXY, which is currently sitting at resistance; if this resistance is broken and momentum builds, the strength of the USD will be further reinforced.
Additional considerations include the recent drop in oil prices, which weakens the CAD due to lower prices, reduced exports, and decreased demand. Future demand will largely depend on election outcomes and the effectiveness of the Chinese stimulus program, as China is Canada’s second-largest export partner and the world’s largest crude oil importer.
Another supportive factor for the USD is the US10Y and CA10Y treasury yields. The CA10Y currently sits at 3.26%, while the US10Y is at 4.27%. This differential favors the USD, especially since the US10Y recently broke a resistance level and could continue rallying. In contrast, the CA10Y remains under resistance and could edge lower. To put it in a nutshell, USD/CAD appears quite bullish based on the factors listed above. My target is the 1.43500 area.
Update:

1. Canada GDP m/m: Fell short of expectations, with no growth, increasing the likelihood of a 50 BPS rate cut in December, potentially widening the Fed-BoC rate differential.
2. COT Report: Short positions against CAD have risen by 26,000.
3. Oil Prices: Ongoing declines depend on Middle Eastern tensions and China’s stimulus program.
4. Canada Inflation: At 1.6%, which aligns with the 50 BPS rate cut narrative.
5. U.S. Data: Core PCE rose more than expected (0.3% vs. 0.2% previous, revised); unemployment was better than expected (216k vs. 228k prev.); NFP data, although impacted by a hurricane, was largely priced in; and personal spending m/m rose by 0.2% (0.5% vs. 0.3% prev., revised).
6. December Fed Speculation: Rumors suggest the FED may skip a rate cut in December, which would further strengthen the USD against CAD.

I remain bullish on USD/CAD. The next large price moves will depend on election results and any additional rate cuts from the BoC or FED.

A retest of the high of the range on the Monthly could be in the works.



The weekly looks like a possible breakout of the smaller range.



Strong uptrend is ignoring pullbacks in favor of mindless trending. No sign of larger retracement yet.



It could turn at the 1.40 again for a week or so and then continue on. Who knows?

Start to long

@1.4050

Tp @ 1.4067
Tp2 @ 1.4077

Sl: @ Be

Buy again.
1.4006
Tp: +50 Sl:-30

Whack job on the commodity currencies

Risky, but it could go up another 500 pips this month...

In 2020, it was up there due to covid panic.
In 2016, it was due to oil prices declining significantly.

What I'm wondering is, what is causing CAD to behave this way now? Can it really just be because of loud mouth Trump?