Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

aptx I was never impressed by Brian Millard methods.

IMHO Millard has no real trading methodology outside a classical reversal method.

In spite of that studying him is very useful.

The Millard Chart you posted is very interesting, not in the way you think.
This chart was generated by one of his computer program Sigma-P or Microvest.

This chart confirms everything I have already written on the subject about Scaling, Trend and Envelopes.

The Price Range is 60 points ( 100 - 40)
The Envelope width (amplitude ) is 15 points

60 points / 8 = 7.5 .

This is your Octave range

Millard Envelope = CMA XYZ +/- 7.5

Trend = roughly 70/75% of the upmove

I tend to agree with you. But its a very interesting statement and may not be made casually by someone of his learning/ background. Someone wont explain a statement with a diagram if he wasn't serious about it. Let me explore this further just for the fun of it.

X --- X - buying from the lower boundary and selling at the upper boundary will lose money if the downtrend is stronger than the amplitude of the cycle.

Y --- Y - selling at the upper boundary and buying back at the lower boundary will also lose money if the uptrend is stronger than the amplitude of the cycle.

Thanks for your remark Moby. This shows that you are in the right path.

After years of practice, and operative use, my conclusion is that the system is coherent, very robust and at the same time very flexible.

The Gann primary version was using the All Time High and the All Time Low and dividing the Price Range by 8.

The Secpnd version, more known as Murrey Maths, was using predetermined Ranges as 0-1, 0-10, 0-100, 0-1000 etc.
This version has many advantages :

a) you use indefinitely the same numbers , you just have to push the decimal on the left ot on the right depending on the effective range of the share, index, ETF
b) this was very helpful at the time when nobody had a Personal Computer and you had to do the legwork manually. This way You can use predetermined paper sheet to graph your charts. You saved time. Better productivity
c) you can create "groups" and - entities trading in the range 0-10, 0-100 etc and observe their behavior . Note this is a form of Hurst "commonality".

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

In fact, for practicality and operative reasons, you can almost position your Baseline (SRL 0/8) and your Ultimate Resistance (SRL 8/8) at almost whatever position fits your needs and personal tastes ..... as long as it is efficient.

Hence your observation on the 5.000 Level and mine on the 6.259 (50.000 / 8).

This means that the system (division by 8 of the Price Range, generating an Octave = main Vibration of the equity or index, use of sub-harmonics of the Octave for lower Time Frames chart) is more important than the Range itself.

In fact all that is the direct consequence of operative and efficient charting
Your charting program shows you the "best" choice it can propose according its charting algorithm.Hence the closest scaling r

If you change your chart by zooming in or out or by changing your Time Frame , your scaling changes

observe how Trading View works and graphs your chart.

TV uses the Price Range (High-Low)

+ 15% for the Top and - 5% for the Bottom as default settings.

This is how TV scales your chart

Interesting is the fact that the maximum Range possible for scaling used by Trading View is + and - 25% of the Range.

Then it will be very easy for TV to automatically generate Gann Murrey Grid

Obviously I doubt that TV programmers had ever heard of Gann and Murrey.

Hence why these limitations of 25% of the Range ?

IMHO because studies have shown that over 25% the present chart scaling is less operative.

There is more

Your best scaling is your Price Range +/-25%

As Underlying Trend is 75% of your chart Move (High - Low)

Oscillations = around the Trend = +/- 12,5% ( 25%)

Then Price Range divided by 8 gives you the Octave and 1/2 Amplitude of your Envelope

Roughly you divide your chart scaling by 8 and you get your Envelope Amplitude

Octave
Fib Tool modified
or
The Bells & Whistles

GET YOUR SPEC'S ON !!!!!

ps
Playing the Octave Game a different way to you guys

Some readers might like to catch cycle turns

If you know the cycle the market is working to, then you just wait for it to arrive and trade - the problem you have with this is you never know what cycle is working out, if one at all, this then puts you in a bit of a predicament, while you await a cycle that fails to arrive or arrives days later etc

There are a number of ways to pre-empt cycles though, in the chart below we can use:

1. An Indicator(s)
2. Price swings

Lets look at the Indicator first:

1. I have used an "average" 22 trading day look back period for various Indicators - as there are approx 22 trading days per month
2. The CCI @ 200 Identifies cycle turns pretty well
3. See the other Indicators as a reference to the CCI - all pretty similar to a degree
4. You need to refine things a bit, but on the whole, you can definitely use Indicators to predict and time cycle turns if used correctly

With the Price Swings:

1. If you look at the dashed vertical line at a swing high - at that point I asked the software to predict both TIME & PRICE projections based off all the previous swings of this market - the greyed out overlap bit is where bull and bear swings coincide and form a "best turning zone" (This is obviously NOT 100% guaranteed!)
2. Those predictions are the lines that look like train tracks on the edge of the chart (for PRICE) and in the TRZ Indicator window for TIME
3. The software nailed both time and price projections perfectly (which is great for this example)
4. When you have price/time levels being met along with the INDICATOR, that equals a ultra high probability turning zone of some degree

The vertical solid line and the horizontal line show the time and price low of the reversal

This is a DAILY time-frame, so you can do the same on other TF's and when you get confluences, the probability swings massively in your favour

The obvious time-frame to use here is a weekly, to see when the zone for a high comes in and then watch for the Indicators to get to a turning level

The envelopes are various factors of volatility, which factors in changing levels of action (I don't use envelopes, just for visual effect on this chart)
The swing file was computer generated too @ 2 times ATR & 4 times ATR for the larger one

If you want to catch cycle turns - test an Indicator - Once you have it matched/sync'd to price cycles, it will alert you to potential turns

Partway through the 5th leg for both SP500 & BTC?