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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #14,221
  • Edited 7:20am Dec 11, 2024 5:45am | Edited 7:20am
Quoting aptx
Hi Alain, Terry, I was reading an article by Millard in which he makes the following comment: {image} {image} Basically he says that price/ channel will continue to rise till the lower boundary of the channel catches up with the high made by the upper boundary of the channel. Is this correct ?
Hi aptx

seems to me a reshaping / revamping of Buy Low / sell High and/or buy on a retraacement or when Price reverse on the Lower boundary of the Channel


We just wait that the CMA XYZ changes its direction

see Terry's indicator
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  • #14,222
  • Dec 11, 2024 5:55am Dec 11, 2024 5:55am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Hi aptx seems to me a reshaping / revamping of Buy Low / sell High and/or buy on a retraacement or when Price reverse on the Lower boundary of the Channnel We just wait that the CMA XYZ changes its direction see Terry's indicator {image}
The key is ALWAYS the Trend, not the Channel
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  • #14,223
  • Edited 9:33am Dec 11, 2024 6:02am | Edited 9:33am
Millard was never a follower or a continuator of Hurst .

Millard NEVER used Hurst's concepts, methodology and trading tools , even reworded or renamed.

The only common points between Hurst and Millard are the use of Envelopes and of the Centered Moving Averages (which are key IMHO in Hurst's methodology

Millard never used :

Full Span and Half Span CMA's intersection with Price to determine a Target Price
Valid Trend Lines (VTL) and its sub-product Action Signal
Mid-Band and Edge-Band Trading concepts
Mid-Channel Pause (Double Top and Mid-Cycle Dip)
Future Line of Demarcation (FLD)

Nest of Lows concept
  • #14,224
  • Dec 11, 2024 6:09am Dec 11, 2024 6:09am
Critical point in time for the blue cma32.
At this point the upward rising channel is still intact and if prices rise from here it'll remain that way. If however, price breaks below the current lower boundary, then we'd need to redraw the channel to accommodate the break lower resulting in a flat or downtrending cma32.
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  • #14,225
  • Edited 9:34am Dec 11, 2024 8:00am | Edited 9:34am
the title is just deceptive.

IMHO the preface dedicated to Hurst by Brian Millard was a request from the editor Traders Press which had already in his catalog Profit Magic, Cycle Analysis and the Cycllitec Course from Jim Hurst.

The idea being to sell Brian Millard's book to Hurst readers.
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  • #14,226
  • Dec 11, 2024 8:07am Dec 11, 2024 8:07am
Martin Armstrong opinion on Bitcoin
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  • #14,227
  • Dec 11, 2024 8:10am Dec 11, 2024 8:10am
Bitcoin hit the 100k market on the CME in November. As I have said, Bitcoin will never replace the dollar for a fixed amount of currency that fails to expand, which would unleash major deflation and a monumental Great Depression. This is like a murderer claiming he did not kill that person; the gun did. Our problem is the political system - not what is money. That aside, as I have often said, Bitcoin is a trading vehicle like everything else. That said, everything has a cycle, and it will ebb and flow.

We have two possible patterns here. December must exceed and close ABOVE the November high to imply that the December Directional Change is a breakout to the upside in which case we could see a rally into March reaching the $125k level. That would be more bearish long term. That would also be 7 years up from the 2018 low - not a good sign and that would warn of at least a pause in the uptrend.

To extend this rally into 2029, this December Directional Change would need to be to the downside to retest support in March of 2025. A reaction low at that time would then help to prolong this rally as the confidence in especially European governments continued to crumble. Until the EU wakes up, Bitcoin was being used to get money out of Europe as the Chinese were doing to get money out of China.
  • #14,228
  • Dec 11, 2024 9:14am Dec 11, 2024 9:14am
BTCUSD_20241211_1612
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BTCUSD_20241211_1616
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  • #14,229
  • Dec 11, 2024 9:34am Dec 11, 2024 9:34am
BTCEUR_(5mn)_20241211_1630

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  • #14,230
  • Dec 11, 2024 9:43am Dec 11, 2024 9:43am
BTCUSD_20241211_1640
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  • #14,231
  • Dec 11, 2024 9:54am Dec 11, 2024 9:54am
Screenshot_20241211_1650
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Have a good day, & good luck
  • #14,232
  • Dec 11, 2024 11:46am Dec 11, 2024 11:46am
making my day !

Double Top
Mid-Cycle Dip
50% Retracement Target
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  • #14,233
  • Dec 11, 2024 12:01pm Dec 11, 2024 12:01pm
on the way
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  • #14,234
  • Dec 11, 2024 12:04pm Dec 11, 2024 12:04pm
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  • #14,235
  • Dec 11, 2024 12:05pm Dec 11, 2024 12:05pm
target hit
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  • #14,236
  • Dec 11, 2024 3:28pm Dec 11, 2024 3:28pm
Quoting mobydik
Hello Parisboy On the DJ Cash in UTQ ( quarter ) : I used 0 because the DJ low was around 200 so not a meaningful difference. But I wonder whether using 5000 as the bottom scale would be more meaningful ( ie over the last 30 years roughly ) What do you think ? {image} {image} {image}
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  • #14,237
  • Dec 11, 2024 3:42pm Dec 11, 2024 3:42pm
Quoting mobydik
Hello Parisboy On the DJ Cash in UTQ ( quarter ) : I used 0 because the DJ low was around 200 so not a meaningful difference. But I wonder whether using 5000 as the bottom scale would be more meaningful ( ie over the last 30 years roughly ) What do you think ? {image} {image} {image}
Moby, you could use also 6.250 / 56.250
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  • #14,238
  • Dec 11, 2024 4:39pm Dec 11, 2024 4:39pm
just for the fun
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  • #14,239
  • Dec 11, 2024 4:50pm Dec 11, 2024 4:50pm
follow up
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  • #14,240
  • Dec 11, 2024 5:16pm Dec 11, 2024 5:16pm
closed short position
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