Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

opened short position

closed short position

CCurvMedianEffect

Bitcoin Daily chart

1. cma256 (aqua) is the dominant cycle
2. As long as it keeps rising bitcoin is still bullish
3. A price fall or extended sideways move could result in the cma256 topping out
4. The aqua rectangle shows the area within which price can move without the cma256 topping out

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Sometimes it's not possible to construct a topping out scenario because it doesn't fit the rules for drawing cma's and/or drawing channels. This is however a possible scenario. It would require price to end in a similar point of the yellow path.
(note: just a possible scenario not my favoured view, but worth being aware that this could occur and would fit all cma and channel drawing rules)

Yeah that's fine - We can all trade what makes sense to us, I'm just showing you how to trade the cycles, which all these cycle guru's missed out of their books, as you mentioned - it doesn;t matter if its the cycle, an envelope or whatever, when a market turns from down to up it has to conform to higher highs, higher lows, 123's, elliott wave 1 & 2, Gann secondary reactions, rising zigzag swings, so when those patterns show up some sort of cycle has completed, beit it minor, intermediate or major

I think its a good intro into understanding basic cycles, timing concepts, bands, counts etc and the like and he shows you how to trade from those cycles, time counts etc - so there's works out there showing you how to trade from cycles based analysis, then people can progress onto Hurst, William Garratt, Millard, ehlers and the like

Loads of other authors such as Jenkins, Gilmore etc have written trading books which entail cycles being traded - they're just not envelopes, but the cycles cause the price swings which in turn cause the envelopes to develop/be constructed, so its all linked to some degree

Miners book is a bit of everything, he probably could have doubled the page count of it, but he'd of been restricted by the publisher and it would of been better for him to replace the elliott wave chapter with more cyclic content

In the mid 90's Miner produced a 500+ page manual to go with his software - in that manual there's a lot more content and detail on time, cycles etc which makes a lot of sense

DAX m5:

NQ m5:

a year ago a discussion between me and Terry about the Bitcoin

just to show you how the tools that Terry has programmed and that we both use here are :

efficient
predictive
profitable to analyze and trade

it is not a Forecast. Fractal of Price is 0-75.000

Also it gives you most of the time some level Ideas

Next Fractal of Price is 0-100.000 max 0-125.000

Here it is not perfect; But there is obviously something.