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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #481
  • Edited 12:38pm Jul 23, 2007 12:26pm | Edited 12:38pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Going by a rubber band / slingshot analogy I'd understand, but if you say it is likely to exceed it's average range, then wouldn't it have less power and pips to give back a lot of the already moved out range?

Or is the logic that of excessive stops built during the overextending of the range, hence allowing sellers to push back all the more easily eventually?

Not that I see a 1.0000 EURUSD happening yet as long as certain barriers hold, but I'd like to simply understand the mechanics behind the scenario you're outlining =)
Timing is very difficult to predict. At least much more difficult than future trading levels and the direction of the next move or a trend. However in our case there are some clues on different currencies that might point toward such possible scenario. Lets take cable for example. The currrent year's range is just about a half of the previous year's range by now. In order to match it in size and if to assume that we have already seen the bottom of the year, the top has to be somewhere at around 2.2000 or higher which is very unlikely given current positioning, market sentiment and overall technical picture. At the same time on longer-term monthly charts cable looks like being in the process of forming a broadening triangle. And if it is so then the next move is likely to be down to form the main diagonal of such a formation and this diagonal's bottom has to be below 1.65. The main diagonal traditionally is the fastest one in its forming speed. In combination with the necessity to complete its yearly range before the end of the year, this fact makes the likely target for cable for the reminder of the year to be placed somewhere at or below 1.80 zone. But given the fact that the major trendline is currently at around 1.82-82 area, the actual break of this line is likely to lead to further losses. In other words it means that cable might easy complete about 40 cents move by the end of the year and if then the other europeans have a chance to complete similar trading ranges. There is nothing beyond reasonable here. In pre 1993 period such behavior used to be rather typical.
  • #482
  • Jul 23, 2007 2:07pm Jul 23, 2007 2:07pm
Hm. Well it seems 1800-2400 pips range are pretty common for GBPUSD.

We have 1400 pips moved in the YTD range now as it is with a 1.9184 low I believe.

So if you wanted to take that out to the downside you'd have anywhere from 0-1000 pips, you'd get targets around 1.88 and lower.

Actually that would line up nicely for me. Taking 2.0707 (a former range 161.8 extension target, range is 1.9177 - 2.20133) as a top, 1.7064 as a bottom, we have a 50% fib right at 1.8895.

Anywhere from 1.8464 to 1.8888 would also have buyers. A weekly trendline would also line up well with that.

But I still remain unconvinced that say 2.0700 e.g. or similiar would HAVE to be the top. I can fit scenarios for it, sure, I'm just not familiar enough with really big pictures to tell however. As it is I can also find some clues that if the market really wanted it could just call it a year right here for cable and EURUSD and it would also fit into a lot of my fib relationships.
But unless price forms corresponding levels / price patterns, I really can't say ahead of time


Also - what about the yield aspects? Positive interest, crosses and similiar..isn't GBP quite attractive now and only looking better in the light of interest differentials?
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #483
  • Jul 24, 2007 4:52am Jul 24, 2007 4:52am
Quoting Igrok
Timing is very difficult to predict. At least much more difficult than future trading levels and the direction of the next move or a trend. However in our case there are some clues on different currencies that might point toward such possible scenario. Lets take cable for example. The currrent year's range is just about a half of the previous year's range by now. In order to match it in size and if to assume that we have already seen the bottom of the year, the top has to be somewhere at around 2.2000 or higher which is very unlikely given current positioning, market sentiment and overall technical picture. At the same time on longer-term monthly charts cable looks like being in the process of forming a broadening triangle. And if it is so then the next move is likely to be down to form the main diagonal of such a formation and this diagonal's bottom has to be below 1.65. The main diagonal traditionally is the fastest one in its forming speed. In combination with the necessity to complete its yearly range before the end of the year, this fact makes the likely target for cable for the reminder of the year to be placed somewhere at or below 1.80 zone. But given the fact that the major trendline is currently at around 1.82-82 area, the actual break of this line is likely to lead to further losses. In other words it means that cable might easy complete about 40 cents move by the end of the year and if then the other europeans have a chance to complete similar trading ranges. There is nothing beyond reasonable here. In pre 1993 period such behavior used to be rather typical.
Hi Igrok,
I respect your judgement in these things and I have got your book.
As a newbie , the idea of a $1.65 = £1 seems perhaps even more unlikely than a $1= Euro. Why is it that you reject the idea of a $2.2 = £1 ?
1. It is is not so far away
2. It has momentum on its side
3. The interest rate differential is very unlikely to start to reverse before year end.

Where am I wrong?

Ian
  • #484
  • Jul 24, 2007 9:53am Jul 24, 2007 9:53am
That one was really funny.

Good luck Igrok.

Edit: Maybe you meant USD/CHF...



Quoting Igrok
Given recent price action and using some historical analogies I think I have to reconsider some of my longer-term views. It now seems to me that this year range is likely to exceed the average. Because of that, EUR/USD has now a bigger chance to get to as low as parity some time before this year end.
  • #485
  • Edited 8:26am Jul 25, 2007 8:10am | Edited 8:26am
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Igrok,
I respect your judgement in these things and I have got your book.
As a newbie , the idea of a $1.65 = £1 seems perhaps even more unlikely than a $1= Euro. Why is it that you reject the idea of a $2.2 = £1 ?
1. It is is not so far away
2. It has momentum on its side
3. The interest rate differential is very unlikely to start to reverse before year end.

Where am I wrong?

Ian
I don't know now who is wrong and who is right. Only time will show. On my opinion, from technical point of view both levels are "must". I'm not calling for EUR/USD to reach parity before year end no matter what, but it is possible. I have seen such moves before and traded them successfully and have already been in pretty much similar situation about 9 years ago. For example, on September 8, 1998 on one Russian speaking forum I posted a comment that USD/JPY and USD/CHF should at least reach levels 111.00-113.00 and 1.23-1.28 in less than a couple of months. There were lots of participants calling me an idiot at that time mostly because at the moment USD/JPY was trading above 132.00 and USD/CHF was above 1.42. All of them had no choice but to apologize a month later when USD/JPY reached 111.75 and USD/CHF hit 1.2750 on October 8, 1998. Here is the link to the forum's archive http://www.fxo.ru/forum-1/forum-04.html. Apparently, someone has to speak Russian to read it but I think we have enough Russian speaking participants here to confirm the credibility of the story.
Once again, this is not a call for a crazy move in a short run. I'm just saying that this is possible. There were such occurances back in history of Forex and it might happen again in the future.
  • #486
  • Jul 25, 2007 8:14am Jul 25, 2007 8:14am
Learn more Candlesticks technic.

http://www.candlestickstechnical.b0x.com/
  • #487
  • Jul 25, 2007 1:02pm Jul 25, 2007 1:02pm
Quoting noom_lozo
Learn more Candlesticks technic.

http://www.candlestickstechnical.b0x.com/
What do you mean?
Regards
  • #488
  • Jul 25, 2007 5:01pm Jul 25, 2007 5:01pm
Quoting howard
What do you mean?
Take it easy. It's only a spam.
  • #489
  • Jul 25, 2007 5:26pm Jul 25, 2007 5:26pm
Just saw a faint possibility for USDCHF moving to 1.2450 - 1.2700+++ depending on which "turn' we take.

Just curious whether this would line up with the EURUSD parity idea
Did you have a look at USDCHF as well since it's EURUSD's darker(more USD loving) twin?
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #490
  • Jul 26, 2007 12:49am Jul 26, 2007 12:49am
Quoting SeekingLight
Just saw a faint possibility for USDCHF moving to 1.2450 - 1.2700+++ depending on which "turn' we take.

Just curious whether this would line up with the EURUSD parity idea
Did you have a look at USDCHF as well since it's EURUSD's darker(more USD loving) twin?
Swissy is the key element for the longer-term outlook. It has the shortest current year's range and the bulletproof level at 1.13 which it shouldn't even approach closer than 300-500 pips. Apparently if the downside is so well protected with just 600 pips of the current yearly range it has little choice but to change the direction of the main move of the year and to target 1.38 - 1.40 zone initially. This level coinsides with the main trendline drawn through the tops of 1985 and 2001. In a doomsday scenario such as parity on EUR/USD, swissy is likely to target 1.56-1.60. zone.
  • #491
  • Jul 26, 2007 7:14am Jul 26, 2007 7:14am
With monthly picture looking like that I wonder if CAD/USD will be able to avoid the crossover on MACD before the end of the month. I think such avoidance might call for a sharp recovery toward the end of the year.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Monthly FXUSCDMUL, MACD (FXUSCDMUL, 12, 26, 9).jpg Size: 33 KB
  • #492
  • Jul 27, 2007 7:03pm Jul 27, 2007 7:03pm
nice calling the top and bottom on the GBP/USD and USD/CAD Igrok
  • #493
  • Jul 28, 2007 11:27am Jul 28, 2007 11:27am
Quoting jotty
nice calling the top and bottom on the GBP/USD and USD/CAD Igrok
Which posts are you referring to?
  • #494
  • Jul 30, 2007 10:50pm Jul 30, 2007 10:50pm
In order to avoid bearish crossovers on monthly MACD's USD/CHF has to close today at or above 1.2093 and USD/CAD at or above 1.0800.
  • #495
  • Jul 31, 2007 9:18am Jul 31, 2007 9:18am
Thanks for the output
Regards
  • #496
  • Aug 13, 2007 7:33pm Aug 13, 2007 7:33pm
Hi Igrok,

I hope this thread isn't dead. I don't read many threads and this is one of the few I follow.

Hoping to get some feedback regarding this. Is this a possible diamond on the daily gbpjpy? It looks as if the other side is starting to form. If it stops and heads up today in the 236.60 area then this could add more support for the diamond shape.

Many days ago I was looking at this in 1h and 4h charts, but it didn't quite fit a diamond shape because it was mangled. When I switched it to a daily today it cleaned up it much better.
Attached Image
  • #497
  • Aug 14, 2007 11:59am Aug 14, 2007 11:59am
Quoting Snuffleupagus
Hi Igrok,

I hope this thread isn't dead. I don't read many threads and this is one of the few I follow.

Hoping to get some feedback regarding this. Is this a possible diamond on the daily gbpjpy? It looks as if the other side is starting to form. If it stops and heads up today in the 236.60 area then this could add more support for the diamond shape.

Many days ago I was looking at this in 1h and 4h charts, but it didn't quite fit a diamond shape because it was mangled. When I switched it to a daily today it cleaned up it much better.
It is definitely a broadening triangle which might turn into a diamond. However it is also important to keep in mind that broadening triangle itself is a separate technical formation that usually works as a continuation pattern.
P.S. I don't think I will abandon this thread any time soon. At this moment I have nothing to add to the previous posts. So far the market behaves exactly as expected and I just enjoy the ride.
P.P.S. It's significant that all the USD/Europeans have changed the direction of the main move of the month. USD/CAD is also likely to follow them soon.
  • #498
  • Aug 15, 2007 9:34pm Aug 15, 2007 9:34pm
Quoting Igrok
Their crosses on the JPY also look suspicious to me. EUR/JPY can't get through the fibo, while GBP/JPY so far has been perfectly symmetrical this year. If this symmetry continues, then it must reach 228.20 which is the bottom of January. It sounds absolutely insane, but I have already seen even more bizzare things happening in the market.
Doesn't sound so insane anymore..

Posted 23rd May 2007
  • #499
  • Aug 15, 2007 10:14pm Aug 15, 2007 10:14pm
Next insane call is for the parity on the EUR/USD (Not sure about timing though. Might take a bit longer) and for 1.70 on Cable (expected before the end of the year).
  • #500
  • Aug 16, 2007 4:23am Aug 16, 2007 4:23am
Quoting Igrok
Next insane call is for the parity on the EUR/USD (Not sure about timing though. Might take a bit longer) and for 1.70 on Cable (expected before the end of the year).
I was thinking 1.31 first, but heck, I got time and room left

Igrok, I just wanted to congratulate you. Obviously this is one of those nice "harharharhar" moments when all those people too stuck in unidirectional outlooks kept trying to buy dips as we fell 400-800 pips on the majors and a few k on the carry pairs rather swiftly.



Isn't it nice how the real world takes care to accomodate our technical outlooks? They made a subprime/mortgage disaster just so that the cycles could complete.




Btw, since you are a long termer: I have watched 6-10 years being "cycles" (looked over some historic charts)and that New year and July seem to be THE times for turning points very often.

I would really really love to hear your opinion on this, especially since it was you putting on a "turning position" on the side on that new years party anecdote if I remember correctly
Attached Image
Trust price. Know yourself.
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