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vsa with Malcolm

  • #36,361
  • Nov 24, 2024 10:13pm Nov 24, 2024 10:13pm
That time of year again, Thanksgiving week in the US.

Happy holidays.
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  • #36,362
  • Edited 3:14am Nov 25, 2024 2:55am | Edited 3:14am
Quoting Anotan
That time of year again, Thanksgiving week in the US. Happy holidays. {image}
DOW is already over 2900 points higher from 4th Nov Low
then PB and since 19th November almost 1700 points up, that is some motoring up.
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Happy Thanksgiving!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,363
  • Nov 25, 2024 9:04am Nov 25, 2024 9:04am
Quoting 2be
{quote} DOW is already over 2900 points higher from 4th Nov Low then PB and since 19th November almost 1700 points up, that is some motoring up. {image} {image} Happy Thanksgiving!
It looks that DOW is slowing down and the Thanksgiving move up is coming/has come to the scenario pf profit taking
Out of all my longs at 44800 zone. just in case.
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After Thanksgiving there might be some PB to make space for the next longs till the end of the year, and so the cycle goes on, pump and dump followed by dump and pump.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,364
  • Nov 26, 2024 4:18am Nov 26, 2024 4:18am
Quoting 2be
{quote} It looks that DOW is slowing down and the Thanksgiving move up is coming/has come to the scenario pf profit taking Out of all my longs at 44800 zone. just in case. {image} After Thanksgiving there might be some PB to make space for the next longs till the end of the year, and so the cycle goes on, pump and dump followed by dump and pump.
Range bound PA
It takes some effort and experience to adapt to the ever changing market conditions
Thanksgiving holiday week well in progress
In view of the above, last US session looks like a buying climax, (VSA), the PUMP is slowing down, time for a DUMP, but it needs to be confirmed, otherwise one would not need to go to sauna to sweat. Stay cool without sweating and patiently wait for things to align.

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Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,365
  • Nov 27, 2024 3:32pm Nov 27, 2024 3:32pm
Quoting 2be
{quote} Range bound PA It takes some effort and experience to adapt to the ever changing market conditions Thanksgiving holiday week well in progress In view of the above, last US session looks like a buying climax, (VSA), the PUMP is slowing down, time for a DUMP, but it needs to be confirmed, otherwise one would not need to go to sauna to sweat. Stay cool without sweating and patiently wait for things to align. {image}
DOW NYSE sessions TF is setting nicely for a measured PB
Similar PA but in revers shaded by ellipses
It often is the case that the initial setup bar is surpassed and than the meaningful revisal takes place.

Rotation to the upside
Mon 18 Nov 2024 set up bar followed by a bar surpassing it, then the reversal and motoring up

Rotation to the downside, wit a smaller potential, but still around +1000 possible points
Mon25 November a set up bar followed by a surpassing bar on Tuesday, today a slow start of motoring to the downside for a measured PB

Take into account that DOW is in a strong BULL. so the move to the down side has a limited potentials
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More explanations in the usual place.

Happy thanksgiving!!!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,366
  • Dec 10, 2024 5:28pm Dec 10, 2024 5:28pm
Selling climax on DOW - if so around 1500 points on offer

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Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,367
  • Dec 11, 2024 4:54am Dec 11, 2024 4:54am
Quoting 2be
Selling climax on DOW - if so around 1500 points on offer {image} {image}
It is prudent to be patient with these climaxes working out, it depends on one's appetite for risk.
I use shorter TFs to take advantage and opportunities does created by the PA in that region, usually taking trades in one direction, and patiently waiting for the strategy to be applied.
DOW provides many good moves and in points number they are significant.
Below is the seasonally adjusted average activity for the last 20 years
https://www.forexfactory.com/attachm...l?d=1693472539

Good trades to all!!!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,368
  • Edited Dec 14, 2024 8:19am Dec 13, 2024 8:57pm | Edited Dec 14, 2024 8:19am
Quoting 2be
Selling climax on DOW - if so around 1500 points on offer {image} {image}
The rotation has not happened at the selling climax, 10 Dec session bar looked like a possible reversal, but became a good example of failed potential reversal at selling climax:
There were several signs of that failure
- S/R zone not penetrated to the upside
- Retest of the S/R zone the following session
- Pump and dump cycle as indicated - there is much more to be said about the Pump/dump cycle - just observe the timing and come to conclusion

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I use shorter TFs and look for confirmation of the possible reversal
That confirmation never materialised in this case
M30 is important TF for me for intra day trades, and other trades too

I thought prudent to follow the previous postings and take this opportunity to elaborate of what might have been, its potentials and its risks.
Honesty and sincerity demands it, as the last few DOW NYSE sessions bars proved a failed selling climax and pointed to the importance of confirmation of the possible rotation.
Although the idea or principle in my case regarding confirmation of any one set up one is utilising is universal to all traders or IMHO it should be so , in this case, a selling climax, the way it appears and is confirmed is specific to every particular instrument, considering also different TFs.
It is therefore obvious that the above is likely to make more sense, if at all for those trading DOW, even though one might not be aware of NYSE session bars, gaps, third Fridays, different TFs gearing and so on, including TF created by NYSE sessions bars with indicated OHLC, and in this particular setting, these bars indicate the PA of the chosen TF displayed within that bar and outside of it, pointing to "other" useful activities both during the active NYSE session (pit session) and outside of it.

By the way, Tipple Witching Friday is coming!

After having a great weekend, I wish all to have many profitable trades in the coming week!!!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,369
  • Dec 17, 2024 6:18pm Dec 17, 2024 6:18pm
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lots of effort - smaller result
Always wait for confirmation before considering to go long in this case.
After a valid confirmation of the given climax there will be good numbers of safer entries, limiting elevated levels of unnecessary stress.
Please remember what happened several days ago on the 10th December, and lets patience and discipline bring forth a good harvest.

Federal Funds Rate, FOMC statement and FOMC Conference, so busy day with high impact data and conference.
Triple Witching Friday is coming!!!
Good trades to all!!!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,370
  • Dec 18, 2024 12:43am Dec 18, 2024 12:43am
Quoting 2be
{image} lots of effort...
I'm happy someone picked up the torch to keep this thread going!
  • #36,371
  • Edited 5:17pm Dec 18, 2024 3:56pm | Edited 5:17pm
Quoting 2be
{image} lots of effort - smaller result Always wait for confirmation before considering to go long in this case. After a valid confirmation of the given climax there will be good numbers of safer entries, limiting elevated levels of unnecessary stress. Please remember what happened several days ago on the 10th December, and lets patience and discipline bring forth a good harvest. Federal Funds Rate, FOMC statement and FOMC Conference, so busy day with high impact data and conference. Triple Witching Friday is coming!!! Good trades to all!!!
Once again selling climax have been dealt a blow by the reaction to the Fed Funds Rate and hawkish remarks by the chairman.
Climax therefore lacked the confirmation by the following bar/s.
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The intersession gap has acted as S/R, has not been surpassed to the upside, opening the way for substantial longs on DOW
I have exited long positions on the top of that zone, and have made some more trades, than gone short at the rate news release south of that zone
Listening to the chairman conference shorts were coming fast, turning into a strong move down, pivotal move as for a while the expectation was for the good feeling to continue, but for various reasons, mr Chairman proved his importance, for better or worse, to some extend there was also a knee jerk reaction.
Interesting times are coming. Over all this has not come as total surprise to me.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,372
  • Dec 18, 2024 5:26pm Dec 18, 2024 5:26pm
Quoting Anotan
{quote} I'm happy someone picked up the torch to keep this thread going!
I remember posting and reading this thread long time ago, years ago.
I adhere to the basic principles of VSA, and VSA is a part of the strategy I use.
I find posting NYSE session bars less time consuming and the possible climaxes do not come that often on that kind of TF.
I will continue with the session bars and the basic VSA principles.
Saying that I wish everyone good and profitable trades.
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,373
  • Dec 19, 2024 1:29am Dec 19, 2024 1:29am
Little trade today with EURJPY.

I thought there was strength coming across EUR because all the euro pairs had that little test during dead hour but JPY was really the only thing that moved.
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  • #36,374
  • Dec 20, 2024 4:48am Dec 20, 2024 4:48am
Long holidays are coming, thinly traded markets, if at all, FX, Crypto might have some bigger moves than US Indices.
I Have exchanged trading room for baking activities, will attempt to bake a poppy seed cake with good stuff in it!!! Please wish me success.

Time to stock up the fire and relax.

Wishing all Happy Christmas!
Make sure losses are small and profits are bigger!
  • #36,375
  • Dec 30, 2024 12:30am Dec 30, 2024 12:30am
Little pre holiday scalping..

First NS is easy to see and would've been a great entry, I just missed it.
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  • #36,376
  • Jan 2, 2025 1:34pm Jan 2, 2025 1:34pm
Quoting Anotan
Little pre holiday scalping.. First NS is easy to see and would've been a great entry, I just missed it. {image}
Everything is right here, but I just wanted to add some commentary for newbies and the old-timers always veracious for new insights.

Anotan, please correct me if I misstep.

* The Trigger Matrix is from a higher timeframe than the one shown. This is why the highest volume interval on this interval was not FIBbed. The basic strategy is to take the highest volume bar regardless of the size of the interval. However, some prefer to take the highest volume bar on an interval that is also a Wide Range Bar (WRB). This gives the Trigger Matrix, or the effective playing field, the most space.

* LONG above the Midpoint (50%) and SHORT below.

* Ideally, one wants the entry signal interval to be ON the Trigger Matrix Line (100,50,0) ((I include 75,25 to the matrix)). The best signals tend to be those that do not come in "air".

* On this "trading chart", there is clear stopping volume which is confirmed with the next bar UP.

* The first NS is a great entry, but would have taken some heat. However, a stop placed just below 75% would have kept risk small and never been hit.

* There's a TBR prior to the one shown as the entry. What makes the second one better is the higher close of the second interval. That is to say, the second interval closes closer to its high than the second interval on the first TBR.

* Even if one took the first TBR, the key would be one's ability to sit tight (this is a scalp trade) while the market goes sideways for a bit. The subsequent NS and TBR could be places to add on to the position.

* Volume is activity. When you see high volume (high activity by the professionals), pay attention to the subsequent price action around the key areas that we call (thanks to Gavin) trigger numbers. Take the high, the low and the midpoint (aka halfback) of the high volume interval. We call it FIBbing even though 50% is technically not a Fibonacci number.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #36,377
  • Jan 6, 2025 6:14am Jan 6, 2025 6:14am
Nice little bump on tariff rumors I think?
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  • #36,378
  • Jan 7, 2025 1:58pm Jan 7, 2025 1:58pm
Quoting Anotan
Nice little bump on tariff rumors I think? {image}
What did they know and when did they know it? LOL.
Without VSA, you're playing checkers while the Smart Money plays chess.
  • #36,379
  • Jan 8, 2025 5:51am Jan 8, 2025 5:51am


I think I need to dump this trade, almost 3 days and its not going anywhere.

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Anyone still trading volume? It would make me very happy to see some volume trades!!
  • #36,380
  • Jan 8, 2025 10:50am Jan 8, 2025 10:50am
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Click to Enlarge Name: tuesday nas short after HOD taken out, weakness, structure break on low vol, ND on pullback got out Size: 22 KB
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