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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #881
  • Jul 24, 2007 2:56pm Jul 24, 2007 2:56pm
Quoting dove_alliance
Why is everyone looking for the long when the Yen has been a down trend since the 22nd of June with 400 pips already in the trend.....??????
Retail has been overly long every USD pair the whole way down, USD/JPY is no different. Take a look at Oanda's statistics. USD/CAD was 80% long for the past 900pips down. Shorting the dollar is like shooting fish in a barrel, but retail keeps shorting eur/usd and buying usd/cad, usd/chf, usd/jpy, etc.
  • #882
  • Jul 24, 2007 3:24pm Jul 24, 2007 3:24pm
How long do people think the carry trade is going to hang around? I'm close to going long gbp/Yen but just worry it will unravel and that i'm getting in too late.
  • #883
  • Jul 24, 2007 4:10pm Jul 24, 2007 4:10pm
Todays trend is down.
Daily pivot (120.79) 1st support (120.46) which It had already been through. Central pivot (120.24) 2nd support (119.69) .......
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #884
  • Jul 24, 2007 5:55pm Jul 24, 2007 5:55pm
Quoting zamans98
LONG TRUCKS parked nicely at 120.00
Trucks loaded...

Its not the end of carry but still worries me as housing sector in USA is getting worse.
We may see high 119 very very very soon.
  • #885
  • Jul 24, 2007 6:00pm Jul 24, 2007 6:00pm
Quoting zamans98
Trucks loaded...

Its not the end of carry but still worries me as housing sector in USA is getting worse.
We may see high 119 very very very soon.
I see 119.50 at least.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #886
  • Jul 24, 2007 6:06pm Jul 24, 2007 6:06pm
Quoting DutchTrader
I see 119.50 at least.
anything down at 120 will have strong support.
CARRY TRADE is not over but this is a begining.

I'm seeing 119.75, bottom for this week
  • #887
  • Jul 24, 2007 6:25pm Jul 24, 2007 6:25pm
I'll be the bear who sees USD/JPY falling to trendline support @ 116.50 if the 200-day doesn't hold. Although I'll be buying should we successively test the 200-day.
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  • #888
  • Jul 24, 2007 6:29pm Jul 24, 2007 6:29pm
I agree with you guys that think that the USD/JPY has some more downside in store. I like the 119.50 level for very temporary support as the halfway mark on this most recent rally (March - June). Beyond that, I wonder if the most likely consolidation area is 118.50, where the market stopped in April.
  • #889
  • Jul 24, 2007 7:03pm Jul 24, 2007 7:03pm
Prepare for the titanic battle between offshore stop hunters and CTA accounts versus Tokyo Housewives and Toshin demand. I've got my snacks ready and will be watching
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #890
  • Jul 24, 2007 7:20pm Jul 24, 2007 7:20pm
120.00 will hold until US market opens.

It will start in action when DJIA start showing RED. Then, 119.75-119.50 is not impossible. That will make G/J @ 246.50-247
  • #891
  • Jul 24, 2007 7:33pm Jul 24, 2007 7:33pm
Quoting Trader KGB
Retail has been overly long every USD pair the whole way down, USD/JPY is no different. Take a look at Oanda's statistics. USD/CAD was 80% long for the past 900pips down. Shorting the dollar is like shooting fish in a barrel, but retail keeps shorting eur/usd and buying usd/cad, usd/chf, usd/jpy, etc.
Can you give a link to these statistics?

When the retail traders majority start shorting the $ is when the $ trend will change back to long.


Weekly and monthly are very bullish. Were in a short term to slightly mid term correction. But can suddenly return to the over all direction at any given time.

When do we know for sure when a trend is changed....when its too late...So to respond to the guy that said trade what you know....that doesn't work.

edit: also 117.44 is a possible target on a bottom weekly trend line.


Dave
  • #892
  • Jul 24, 2007 7:47pm Jul 24, 2007 7:47pm
Quoting zamans98
120.00 will hold until US market opens.

It will start in action when DJIA start showing RED. Then, 119.75-119.50 is not impossible. That will make G/J @ 246.50-247
119.96
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #893
  • Jul 24, 2007 7:55pm Jul 24, 2007 7:55pm
Quoting DutchTrader
119.96
The next target is 119.69.... 2nd support
The Dove - Forex Trainer
  • #894
  • Jul 24, 2007 8:00pm Jul 24, 2007 8:00pm
wow.. fast action. didn't manage to close my long at 120.20....
just came back from a cup of coffee and now 119.90
  • #895
  • Jul 24, 2007 8:01pm Jul 24, 2007 8:01pm
If the 200 SMA gives, look out below
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #896
  • Jul 24, 2007 8:01pm Jul 24, 2007 8:01pm
How strange! I trade a dolar hedge where I buy GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF, and for the first time, they are all down. But it wil balance soon
  • #897
  • Jul 24, 2007 8:10pm Jul 24, 2007 8:10pm
Long Truck is ready for takeoff
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #898
  • Jul 24, 2007 8:12pm Jul 24, 2007 8:12pm
Quoting bhale
How strange! I trade a dolar hedge where I buy GBPUSD, EURUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF, and for the first time, they are all down. But it wil balance soon
I'm not sure about GU/EU but putting my chips on USD/JPY...

Looks like carry trade starting to unwind.. ALL DOWN! Remind me of February 2007... I may opt to close my 120 long @ BE
  • #899
  • Jul 24, 2007 8:13pm Jul 24, 2007 8:13pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Long Truck is ready for takeoff
Where does your trucked parked? Highway 119.50 I believe...
  • #900
  • Jul 24, 2007 8:14pm Jul 24, 2007 8:14pm
Quoting zamans98
Where does your trucked parked? Highway 119.50 I believe...
Precisely. If that level gives though, all bets are off and we could be sitting on a 300 pip haul in one session.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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