Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 696 | Forex Factory

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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #13,901
  • Nov 19, 2024 3:50am Nov 19, 2024 3:50am
• If a future price mean falls right on the line, it will be exactly the same as the price mean that is subtracted from the left end of the previous day's span sum.

The new span sum will therefore be equal to the previous day's span sum, and the new moving-average data point will be exactly the same as the previous one.

• If the future price mean is above the line, it will be higher than the price mean that is subtracted from the left end of the previous day's span sum even though it may be lower than the previous day's price mean.

The new span sum will therefore be greater than the previous day's span sum, and the new moving-average data point will be higher than the previous one.
  • #13,902
  • Nov 19, 2024 3:51am Nov 19, 2024 3:51am
• From this reasoning, it follows that as long as price means are below the FLD line, the Moving Average (1/4 cycle in the past) is falling.
Also, whenever price means are above the FLD line, the Moving Average is rising.

• Therefore, when price means cross, or break, the FLD line as they are moving from below the line to above the line, the Moving Average (1/4 cycle in the past) is just changing from falling to rising and is right at the center of its trough.

• We then know that the price wave plot, which is 1/4 cycle further along in time than the Moving Average plot, is halfway between its trough (which occurred at the same grid line as the Moving Average trough) and its next crest.

• It is then a simple matter to obtain the most probable price at the next crest by taking the price rise from the trough to the FLD break and adding it to the price at the FLD break.
  • #13,903
  • Nov 19, 2024 3:53am Nov 19, 2024 3:53am
Thus the point at which price means cross the FLD line will generally be in between grid lines.
You have observed this in your dealings with FLD breaks in past analyses.)

• From the foregoing paragraphs, it can be seen that what we are really doing is using the half-span Moving Average (which tracks the base price wave and is in phase with it) to identify the time location of the trough of the price wave.

We are then measuring 1/4 cycle forward in time from the price wave trough to establish the time location of **the half-way point **in the price rise from trough to crest.
  • #13,904
  • Nov 19, 2024 3:54am Nov 19, 2024 3:54am
• Fortuitously, the FLD break simultaneously identifies the location of the wave trough and itself marks **the half-way point **in the price move from trough to crest.

• As you know, the price at the trough is taken to be the price low associated with the trough in the phasing analysis of the base wave, and this price low does not generally lie on the same grid line as the trough of the base wave (and the Moving Average).

• The very same reasoning just used for the price move from trough to crest can also be applied to the move from crest to trough.

By now you should have a thorough understanding of the basic principles of the FLD; what it is, how it works, and why it works.
  • #13,905
  • Nov 19, 2024 3:57am Nov 19, 2024 3:57am
Following Hurst demonstrations and reasonings, this chart shows the Flip Points Levels of each CMA's having generated the Focal Point FP3, which is located in the middle of the Down Move and confirm s the present Price Low is a strong Nest of Lows.

This chart allows you too to estimate how much Price at the present time has to travel so that the CMA's make their Lows and turn up to intersect with their FLD's
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  • #13,906
  • Nov 19, 2024 3:59am Nov 19, 2024 3:59am
we can then infer that we are now in a Pause Zone before going up when the 3 CMA's will have made their Lows
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  • #13,907
  • Edited 4:41am Nov 19, 2024 4:25am | Edited 4:41am
Perhaps not to the letter of the law
But
It works for me
well when I have my head on ?
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  • #13,908
  • Nov 19, 2024 6:04am Nov 19, 2024 6:04am
Sell

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  • #13,909
  • Edited 7:06am Nov 19, 2024 6:54am | Edited 7:06am
Here is the thing for me
My numbers do not change
No matter what
TIMEFRAME I use

ps
Makes Risk/reward
Money- management
more effective
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  • #13,910
  • Nov 19, 2024 7:34am Nov 19, 2024 7:34am
Sell 2

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out


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but 30mn ?

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  • #13,911
  • Nov 19, 2024 8:14am Nov 19, 2024 8:14am
Quoting parisboy
How can we tell when the Moving Average is exactly at its trough? The answer lies in the rate of change of the Moving Average price. • Just before the trough, the Moving Average price is changing in the downward direction; the rate of change is negative. ***Just after the trough, the Moving Average price is changing in the upward direction; the rate of change is positive. *** *** Right at the trough, the rate changes from negative to positive and therefore must pass through zero. That is, at the very center of the trough there will be a point at...
Another way is to use one or both of the components I added to my indicator.
1. Watch for the arrow representing the CMA you're tracking to flip direction (a dot will appear above the arrow for a full bar after the flip)
2. Turn on "Show CMA flip points". This shows you where price needs to reach for the CMA you're tracking to change direction.

They'll make it a bit easier to see the trough/peak of the CMA prior to or just as it flips
  • #13,912
  • Nov 19, 2024 8:45am Nov 19, 2024 8:45am
Quoting tmpascoe
{quote} Another way is to use one or both of the components I added to my indicator. 1. Watch for the arrow representing the CMA you're tracking to flip direction (a dot will appear above the arrow for a full bar after the flip) 2. Turn on "Show CMA flip points". This shows you where price needs to reach for the CMA you're tracking to change direction. They'll make it a bit easier to see the trough/peak of the CMA prior to or just as it flips
Alain/Terry
Your both at the top of your game
It would be a little unfair to keep
posting my
Dark Age Ideas
you have proved over and over again
that some forward thinking and loads of skill
can give fantasic rewards for the time and effort involved
Just going to step back for a while and keep studing your posts
ps
any chance of one of those clever little (How Too) videos being made
as I have got my order in for the book when released
  • #13,913
  • Nov 19, 2024 8:57am Nov 19, 2024 8:57am
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  • #13,914
  • Nov 19, 2024 9:09am Nov 19, 2024 9:09am
Quoting tmpascoe
{quote} Another way is to use one or both of the components I added to my indicator. 1. Watch for the arrow representing the CMA you're tracking to flip direction (a dot will appear above the arrow for a full bar after the flip) 2. Turn on "Show CMA flip points". This shows you where price needs to reach for the CMA you're tracking to cAttachment ghange direction. They'll make it a bit easier to see the trough/peak of the CMA prior to or just as it flips
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  • #13,915
  • Nov 19, 2024 9:39am Nov 19, 2024 9:39am
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  • #13,916
  • Nov 19, 2024 9:39am Nov 19, 2024 9:39am
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  • #13,917
  • Nov 19, 2024 9:53am Nov 19, 2024 9:53am
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  • #13,918
  • Nov 19, 2024 12:27pm Nov 19, 2024 12:27pm
Dominancy Envelopes help you to identify Dominant Waves
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  • #13,919
  • Nov 19, 2024 12:29pm Nov 19, 2024 12:29pm
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  • #13,920
  • Edited 1:29pm Nov 19, 2024 12:34pm | Edited 1:29pm
a 5 Legs UpMove
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