Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

DAX m1:

No Trading View ?

Not for scalping indicies.

some jealous of his turf moderator on a Discord Hurst group does not like my posts on CMA's, FLD's and their close relationship (as per Hurst himself - Cyclitec Course - Chapter 9 )

no Sinewave, no possibility to calculate a Target Price

no sine wave required. multiple cycles starting to align .

2 Parallels line do not intersect

before Price gies Up, we need to wait that at least Centered Moving Averages CMA 32 (red), 64 ( blue) and 128 (white made their Lows and turns up.

See Cyclitec Couurse Chapter 9

quoting Hurst : ***The cyclic analyst who wishes to obtain maximum benefit from use of the FLD needs a greater understanding of its theoretical basis than has been presented in previous lessons.

• Because the FLD is derived from a Moving Average, a general discussion of the Moving Average will be the first step toward developing this greater understanding.***

The Moving Average is just now forming its trough at A. However, the price wave, which also formed its trough at A, is now at B and at a price that is already half way to the crest at C. •

So here we have a situation that allows us to make a specific, quantitative forecast about price movement.

We know that the price change that took place between times A and B will again take place between times B and C.

The moment we see that the Moving Average is exactly at its trough, we can predict the price that will be reached at the next crest of the price wave.

Alain
Not in your pay grade my friend
So I just paint/trade by numbers

ps
Happy to hear the words
FLD
mentioned again

How can we tell when the Moving Average is exactly at its trough?

The answer lies in the rate of change of the Moving Average price.

• Just before the trough, the Moving Average price is changing in the downward direction; the rate of change is negative.
***Just after the trough, the Moving Average price is changing in the upward direction; the rate of change is positive. ***
***
Right at the trough, the rate changes from negative to positive and therefore must pass through zero.

That is, at the very center of the trough there will be a point at which there is no change in price from one moment to the next.

• Therefore, if we can locate the point in time at which the rate of change in Moving Average price changes from negative to positive, then we have located the center of the trough.

• Now recall the manner in which you generated the moving average.

As you stepped the span along from one day to the next, you took the sum from the previous span, subtracted the price mean for the leftmost day, and added the price mean for the next day on the right.

You then divided the resulting new sum by the span to get the new Moving Average price.

• If the price mean added to the right end is exactly the same as the price mean subtracted from the left end, the new sum will be exactly the same as the previous sum and there will be no change in the Moving Average price.

• If the price mean added to the right end is less than the price mean subtracted from the left end, the new sum will be less than the previous sum and the Moving Average price rate will be negative.

This will be the case when the Moving Average is approaching the trough.

• If the price mean added to the right end is greater than the one subtracted from the left, the new sum will be greater and the Moving Average price rate will be positive.

This will be the case when the Moving Average has passed the trough.

Now, with this concept in mind, look at figure 9-3.

Here we again have an idealized price wave and Moving Average the same as in figure 9-2, but this time the Moving Average has not yet reached its trough.

The period of the price wave is 24 days, so the span of the half-span Moving Average is 12 days.

Imagine that grid line 36 represents today and that you would like to estimate the price that will be reached at the next crest of this price wave.

Also imagine that, as would be the case in a real-world situation, you do not know exactly on which day the trough of the Moving Average will occur.

• However, you do know that if the trough of the Moving Average is at grid line 30 (its last available data point), then the sum of tomorrow's span of price means will have to be greater than the sum of today's span of price means in order to change the Moving Average price rate from negative to positive.

For this to be true, tomorrow's price mean will have to be greater than the price mean that will be subtracted from the left end of today's span.

And you know that the price mean that will be subtracted is the one that is 12 days back, counting today.

• Now, if you go back 12 days (from today, grid line 36), find the mean price for the day, and then plot that price as a point on tomorrow's grid line, you have marked the tomorrow's mean price that if exceeded would result in a reversal of the rate of change of the Moving Average.

Furthermore, if tomorrow's mean price should indeed exceed this point, the point would also serve an additional function.

Because it is ¼ cycle from the moving-average data point that has now been identified as the trough center, this plotted point would also be the halfway mark between the price at the last trough and the price at the next crest.

• The point is shown plotted on grid line 37 in figure 9-3.

It is too far above today's mean price for you to have much expectation that tomorrow's mean price will turn out to be that high.

Therefore, you might decide to plot similar points for the next several days.

Points for the next 4 days are shown plotted in figure 9-3.

Take your pencil and straightedge and connect these 5 points in sequence with short straight lines.

The resulting FLD line marks the boundary between those future price means that will produce a smaller span sum than that of the previous day and those future price means that will produce a larger span sum than that of the previous day.

• If the future price mean is below the line, it will be lower than the price mean that is subtracted from the left end of the previous day's span sum even though it may be higher than the previous day's price mean.

The new span sum will therefore be less than the previous day's span sum, and the new moving-average data point (plotted 1/4 cycle back) will be
lower than the previous one.