AUDNZD

cutting short, back to long I should have patiently waited for this as originally planned

When you are wrong, accept it. Cut the loss, go with the flow. Don't swim upstream. One long term runner still in play here

Lets start the trading week taking some profits. Always a good thing to do

quite a significant zone in the weekly a lot of wicks here, h1 h4 trend, d1 hammer h1 diverging, possibly head and shoulder, pushing against upper t/l, probably wont take just analyzing

Consolidating breach h4 channel, could get a retest, might re-trend

Just my very quick glance at nzd crosses, could be changed by the time ive posted, may not be very accurate, will probably change tomorrow

Nzd crosses
Aud trendline breached
Cad sideways h4 pin messy p/a top of zone
Gbp bearish pressure, near strong weekly TL conflicting
Eur bearish pressure, bounced of consolidation zone descending
Chf Nearing top of channel, no form yet, chf exhaustion coming?
Jpy 15m diverge weak, Jpy bearish power or exhaustion

ended up taking but looks like its making a flag, dont like pa now

Based on the latest report, I would expect AUDNZD to move down since NZD reports were positive and AUD reports were not.

Yet, it did the opposite and even broke out to another zone.

I'm looking to learn from this and I don't understand this move. Can anyone share their insight?

Where are all my trend trading buddies? About time for the contrarians to take notice as well, I reckon.

What goes up, must come down, they say!

Update, this advance now 14% and see some red

This is my signal that it's time to go watch a movie...

First off, cant just conclude its taking a turn (reverse). This CP (3 sideway bars) is never clear until a breakout happens. But some conviction it could take a turn is seen on the daily chart (Rising Wedge) and rising wedge reliability is about 45-47% and has a higher failure rate too. So for me its best to see a breakout above the wedge formation (d1) or high of the 3bar pattern (w1) for a trend continuation and vice versa for a reversal.

I took a couple of short trades last week on RW setup with confirmation of a 2nd pattern. But after that price reversed back. I have since reviewed chart and now waiting with a sledge hammer and a golf club both at the same time!

Moreso, based on the AUD & NZD indexes, both are correlated for now but NZD is weaker (D1 TF + lower). So even if AUD weakens no guarantee NZD will strengthen soonest. Then some news on NZD interest rates around the corner sometime month end. So this should give NZD some boost to rally i guess on or before.

Lastly, your screenshot on currency strength is misleading. That should be CS for H4 or H1 timeframe on a Weekly chart?

Attached sample screenshots of this 3bar pattern from my archives.
My 2 cents.

Indexes are corelated on the Lower TFs (d1 & below) but sc is for weekly. Also sc2 of CS for the week concluded.
+sc3 MN1 Chart (longer term scenario)

If you don't like me, or me using A.I. - why are you even here?

From September 2021 to September 2022 the AUDNZD advanced (approximately) 1,210 pips, 11.77%, from 1.03 to 1.15, then retraced to 1.045 by December 2022. Looking at the recent similar price action of April 2025 to May 2026, from 1.06365 to 1.22846, 1,648 pips, 15.49%, make an estimate of retracement of this (possible) move. Are there any similar fundamentals to a similar retracement? Also, I thought AUD and NZD were correlated but seems not by those moves, elaborate.

How the 2021–2022 AUDNZD rally compares to the 2025–2026 rally, what a reasonable retracement magnitude might look like, and why AUD and NZD correlation breaks down in big macro divergences.

1. Estimated Retracement of the 2025–2026 AUDNZD Move

The two comparable moves

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

If the 2025–2026 move retraced similarly (≈80–90%)

1. Rally high: 1.22846
2. 80% retracement target:
   1.22846 - (0.80 \times 0.16481) = \approx. 1.097
3. 90% retracement target:
   1.22846 - (0.90 \times 0.16481) = \approx. 1.080

Reasonable retracement zone (based on historical analogue):

1.080 – 1.100

This aligns with:

1. prior structure
2. mean reversion tendencies in AUDNZD
3. typical depth of AUDNZD macro-cycle retracements

If the move retraces only 50% (more conservative):

1. 50% retracement: ~1.146

So, the three key levels become:

Shallow retracement: 1.145–1.150
Medium retracement: 1.115–1.125
Deep retracement (historical analogue): 1.080–1.100

Given AUDNZD’s history of deep macro-cycle retracements, the 1.08–1.10 zone is the most realistic analogue.

2. Are the Fundamentals Similar to 2021–2022?
Surprisingly, yes — the macro structure is very similar.

A. RBA vs RBNZ Policy Divergence

In both periods:

2021–2022

1. RBNZ hiked aggressively early.
2. RBA lagged, then caught up.
3. Later, RBNZ paused while RBA stayed hawkish → AUD outperformed → big AUDNZD rally.
4. Then both turned dovish → AUDNZD retraced hard.

2025–2026

1. RBNZ tightened earlier and harder again.
2. RBA lagged, then shifted more hawkish as inflation stayed sticky.
3. AUD outperformed NZD → strong AUDNZD rally.
4. Now both banks are signalling synchronised easing → conditions for a deep retracement.

This is almost a carbon copy of the 2021–2022 macro cycle.

B. Commodity Divergence

2021–2022:

1. Dairy prices fell → NZD weakened.
2. Iron ore recovered → AUD strengthened.

2025–2026:

1. Dairy prices have been soft again.
2. Iron ore demand from Asia has been volatile but generally supportive.

Again, same directional divergence.

C. Growth & Inflation Spread

Both periods show:

1. Australia with stronger labour market + immigration-driven demand.
2. NZ with weaker growth, housing downturn, and earlier policy tightening.

This creates:

1. AUD strength during the rally
2. AUD weakness during the retracement once the RBA catches down to the RBNZ

3. Why AUD and NZD Are Correlated… Until They’re Not

AUD and NZD are highly correlated in:

1. risk sentiment
2. global growth
3. China exposure
4. commodity cycles

But they diverge sharply when domestic policy or domestic data diverges.

The three big correlation breakers:

1. Central bank divergence (the biggest one)
AUDNZD is basically a monetary policy spread trade.
When RBA and RBNZ move differently:

1. AUDNZD trends hard
2. correlation between AUD and NZD collapses

2. Commodity mix differences

1. AUD = iron ore, coal, LNG
2. NZD = dairy, agriculture

These markets often move in opposite cycles.

3. Housing & credit cycles

NZ housing is far more sensitive to rates than Australia’s.

1. When NZ housing slows → NZD weakens
2. When AU housing stays firm → AUD strengthens

This creates AUDNZD divergence even when both currencies move similarly vs USD.

4. What Does This Mean for the Current Move?

Given:

1. the macro similarity to 2021–2022
2. the size of the rally
3. the typical depth of AUDNZD retracements
4. the likely RBA–RBNZ policy convergence in late 2026

The most probable retracement zone is:
1.080 – 1.100
This is the “deep cycle” retracement that AUDNZD is famous for.
A shallower retracement (1.145–1.150) is possible if:

1. RBA stays more hawkish than expected
2. dairy prices collapse further
3. China demand supports AUD

But the macro template strongly favours a deeper retracement, just like 2022.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Do you trade this pair?
Do you think this retracement could happen, assuming it has started as per the previous post?


If nothing else, maybe found a bias.

Happy June trading to all

Of course, there will be bounce!

Still no sign of last week's strength that made the phenomenal move; maybe on Tuesday high?

Good luck, have fun, don't die!

Come on NZD

Wake up