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  • #2,141
  • Jul 20, 2007 8:49am Jul 20, 2007 8:49am
1.3807 seem to be a very strong resistance...
  • #2,142
  • Jul 20, 2007 8:52am Jul 20, 2007 8:52am
we are stuck between 3980 and 3807
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #2,143
  • Jul 20, 2007 8:54am Jul 20, 2007 8:54am
Quoting karmostaji
we are stuck between 3980 and 3807
thats true... I really dont want to swing trade on a Friday afternoon though. I am expecting somethings to happen 1 hour later for further up movement.
  • #2,144
  • Jul 20, 2007 8:54am Jul 20, 2007 8:54am
Quoting Alfa159
thats true... I really dont want to swing trade on a Friday afternoon though. I am expecting somethings to happen 1 hour later for further up movement.
as soon as we talk about this pair, it moves.. incredible LOL
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #2,145
  • Jul 20, 2007 9:01am Jul 20, 2007 9:01am
owkenobi,

What data did you use for your monthly chart of EUR/USD to be plotted back to 1989? Deutsche Mark???

Just curious...
Quoting owkenobi
I agree with both of you, Alfa159 and SammyJ.

On the short term I think we will se a small retracement (100-200 pips) followed by an uptrend continuation till 1,4 or 1,42.

On a longer term I think we will see a sturdy change of trend from bullish to bearish when EU will touch 1,4(2) because the "channel" on W1 could be called a "rising wedge", a particular triangle with this kind of behaviour.
  • #2,146
  • Jul 20, 2007 9:03am Jul 20, 2007 9:03am
Quoting karmostaji
as soon as we talk about this pair, it moves.. incredible LOL
True, I think London might've started taking a bit of profit before heading out for the weekend.
  • #2,147
  • Jul 20, 2007 9:04am Jul 20, 2007 9:04am
FWIW next hurdle on small time frames is at 1.3818.
  • #2,148
  • Jul 20, 2007 9:06am Jul 20, 2007 9:06am
i am going away from my desk... Already placed my TP and SL... So talk to you when the Asian Session opens guys..
  • #2,149
  • Jul 20, 2007 9:13am Jul 20, 2007 9:13am
Quoting dedhed
True, I think London might've started taking a bit of profit before heading out for the weekend.
Careful - someone will accuse you of 'short time frame'
  • #2,150
  • Jul 20, 2007 9:14am Jul 20, 2007 9:14am
Anyone here an expert on the Average True Range? I've been playing around with it, and curiously when you look at something like longer averaging periods (say, several weeks) this pair is down to levels it hasn't seen since early 2002. Now sharp peaks in the ATR often precede a change in direction as longs & shorts fight it out, but a significant low after a long decline I'm not clear on (the decline has been going on since 2004). Thoughts?
  • #2,151
  • Edited 1:07pm Jul 20, 2007 9:22am | Edited 1:07pm
Quoting chuckie
owkenobi,

What data did you use for your monthly chart of EUR/USD to be plotted back to 1989? Deutsche Mark???

Just curious...
Well honestly I don't know exactly. Probably Metaquotes or my broker have the right answer.

I think that euro data before 2002 is a "synthetic" and balanced mix of currency where the DM has the major weight.
  • #2,152
  • Jul 20, 2007 10:00am Jul 20, 2007 10:00am
3778 will hold for a while, poor USD.
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凹凸 only
  • #2,153
  • Jul 21, 2007 10:34pm Jul 21, 2007 10:34pm
Quoting HalifaxCB
Anyone here an expert on the Average True Range? I've been playing around with it, and curiously when you look at something like longer averaging periods (say, several weeks) this pair is down to levels it hasn't seen since early 2002. Now sharp peaks in the ATR often precede a change in direction as longs & shorts fight it out, but a significant low after a long decline I'm not clear on (the decline has been going on since 2004). Thoughts?
I was under the impression that the range was down for EU because other pairs have been gaining popularity among traders and investors (carry trades and such included). GBP range is down too as well.
  • #2,154
  • Jul 21, 2007 10:36pm Jul 21, 2007 10:36pm
Quoting Samuri
3778 will hold for a while, poor USD.
Good to know you can predict the future! Will you trade my account for me? :-) Did you draw that EW analysis as it happened, and not after the fact, or did you count the waves after they had formed?
  • #2,155
  • Jul 22, 2007 10:06am Jul 22, 2007 10:06am
I find Sunday especially boring, this day one should rest and dedicate time to some other things, but Forex. We have tried many things to keep us preoccupied, and except going out on a boat, one finds itself running in circles, waiting for markets to open. Unfortunately we are not living on the coast of the Mediterranean Sea anymore, and the luxury of boat escapes are, for now, out of reach. Having nothing better to do, I'll do the unthinkable and open charts, just to see what might happen with Euro on Monday.

I guess you all know that trend remained intact, and there is no change in view. Support at 1.3780 held beautifully on Friday, and we managed to get ourselves to a new high at 1.3843. Buying at 1.3800 area might be the game plan for tomorrow, but for that I'll have to wait for market to open .Only 10 hours to go.

Strictly technically speaking, pair was already overbought on 29th of June, and now it is so squeezed, that I can't bring myself to look at indicators anymore. You will ask: "Can it drop then, if it is so overbought as you claim?" , and the only thing I can answer to that question is YES. Never the less, I have seen it before, and it can continue to rally without correction as well. So carefully, carefully, carefully is my main strategy for Monday. Tight stops in place, and lets see what happens.
  • #2,156
  • Jul 22, 2007 12:05pm Jul 22, 2007 12:05pm
Quoting JoshDance
Good to know you can predict the future! Will you trade my account for me? :-) Did you draw that EW analysis as it happened, and not after the fact, or did you count the waves after they had formed?
The trick is not prediction, my friend. It is all about try getting a ride in your favorable direction, and get out of the car quick finding you are wrong. Wave counting helps, if you do understand it. And one thing I can tell is that it is not too complicated.

Cheers.
凹凸 only
  • #2,157
  • Jul 22, 2007 12:48pm Jul 22, 2007 12:48pm
you can check my page for detailed graphs guys... My bias is 1.40 but the graphs are just not telling me that way soon... probably later
  • #2,158
  • Jul 22, 2007 4:46pm Jul 22, 2007 4:46pm
Quoting Samuri
The trick is not prediction, my friend. It is all about try getting a ride in your favorable direction, and get out of the car quick finding you are wrong. Wave counting helps, if you do understand it. And one thing I can tell is that it is not too complicated.

Cheers.
Maybe you didn't detect my tiny bit of sarcasm, sorry ;-)

At any rate, I have seen EW analysis fail time after time, and while it looks great in retrospect, in real time it's as useless as a crystal ball, IMO. But having said that, if it works for you, then I wish you much success!
  • #2,159
  • Jul 22, 2007 9:48pm Jul 22, 2007 9:48pm
Would be a great place for a quick correction.
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  • #2,160
  • Jul 23, 2007 1:42am Jul 23, 2007 1:42am
In my opinion, The pair will most probably hit 1.3800 again today. And than we will see how it will behave
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