Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

then we can consider the usual Double Top Pattern

Let's consider now the various potential Retracement levels at previous Focal Points

A ( 5.345),
B (5.194)
and C (4.926)

Their sum is 15.465 . Hence their average is 5.165

Observe that 5.165 is very close from SRL 5/8 = 5.156.23 ( 5000 (SRL 4/8) + 1 Octave (156,25)

such a scenario seems realistic

TLRY Weekly

WATERFALL EVENT

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

NQ 1:

Cable H4, two trades in this wave worth 110 pips:

I am beginning to question the horizontal lines that we draw on the chart whether from the Murrey Maths or from usual S/R zones. The horizontal lines are a matter of convenience. After watching the screen for hours and hours I get a feeling that the lines need to be diagonal or slanting. These then start coinciding with other tools such as Gann Fan or Pitchfork etc. The MAs are rarely perfectly horizontal if you see hence the S/R zones also need to be aligned. There is something that I have started observing- will share once I am convinced with more evidence/ examples.

PINK angle value at end this week is 5660 ish and YELLOW is 5700 ish

Cycle composite Index topped out - price action is getting jittery as it should

Just need to see if we have a sideways yo-yoing of price swings or a decline - I like the DT theory though

When war is declared, its going down hard, then will bounce - trouble is I have a 4 year window on that, so its not able to be too predictive

This chart was taken 1 month ago - its not up to date, but its easy enough to work out what happened

Murrey Momentum Lines Chart

old Momentum Lines charts

DAX M1:

That is exactly what I'm sat waiting for and I go away on holiday next week!

We all know this will turn when I'm away LOL

Amazing work on the envelopes - I bet Hurst would be in awe of them

Hi all,

thought id make a post as i have noticed a common mistake most traders do not account for.

FYI I am a institutional hedgefund trader. i have worked at some of the most elite funds on the planet including brevan howard asset management and Bluecrest capital.

One of the things i would be weary of in the current market is trading direction strategies where you naturally have a beta to the market. Why is this so important? well, we're currently in between cycles (hiking and cutting cycles). We are currently in a limbo phase whereby we are waiting for the fed to start cutting to enhance $ weakness. There hasnt been enough soft data in thee labour market or inflation for that matter to suggest the fed can start cutting and maintain cutting as of yet. As a result there is no clear trend.

going naked long or short $currency gives you a market beta. Thus, i'd recommend adopting a market neutral trading strategy where one explored cointegrated pairs utlising a hedge ratio.

If anyone is interested discussing further fell free to reply to my post and id be happy to discuss.

Best of luck trading guys,
Stephen

DAX M1. Froze for some seconds end than exploded in my favour respecting the cycle:

NQ M1:

hi,tmpascoe.
How should I set it to get the same curve as yours? My channel dashed lines are all straight.

The indicator doesn't do curves, these are done by drawing a curved line with the drawing tool and then cloning that line to construct the other two lines for the channel