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Are you a trend trader or a counter-trend trader? 29 replies

Weekly Trend finding 7 replies

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Attachments: Finding the trend
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Finding the trend

Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Yes watched the the video with the War and Pandemic and many other cycles in, found it quite compelling , just need to be about 40years younger with a few bob to really take advantage of this style of trading Maybe the Government new about the Pandemic cycle and used to to try and get rid of us OAPs ? Can I as what software you have to keep check of 200 markets as I have noticed you have shown, lets say not the obvious Uk shares ps For what its worth My Go Compare Idea of the S&P {image}
Some of the cycles will always hit and miss - it's the nature of the beast

Yeah I'm 49 and I sat down and worked out which cycles I might see and which I most likely won't - something to pass down to the kids and their children when they have them

If they'd of been looking to do that, they'd of simply let it rip through everyone - they protected you and all - most colds we have now are old pandemic viruses! just milder versions

Sharepad - its not perfect, you can't scan intra-day, you have to flick through a list - but its organised and suits my style - it's mainly for fundamentals as you can run every type of financial data filter you can think of, then there's the charting side which is good but limited, especially for cycle work, but you can export the price data out into excel and then import that into other charting software etc - bit of a faff, but I make it work

I just find its easier to flick through every chart in my portfolio and eyeball everything - most of the time only a few picture perfect prospects pop up

Keep those levels on the SP500 - be Interesting what happens going forward to see how they contain price
THT
Quoting Thtpro
{quote} Some of the cycles will always hit and miss - it's the nature of the beast Yeah I'm 49 and I sat down and worked out which cycles I might see and which I most likely won't - something to pass down to the kids and their children when they have them If they'd of been looking to do that, they'd of simply let it rip through everyone - they protected you and all - most colds we have now are old pandemic viruses! just milder versions Sharepad - its not perfect, you can't scan intra-day, you have to flick through a list - but its organised and...
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Quoting Eod
Quoting Thtpro
{quote} Lo conosco solo ora, non ho mai guardato oltre il suo sito web o mi sono iscritto - il link che hai postato, aveva il ciclo di "guerra" proprio nella mia linea d'occhio, ecco perché l'ho menzionato, ma a parte questo non ho guardato molti dei video La cosa principale nel trading è trovare un metodo che si adatti a te/alla tua personalità - ci sono circa 16 tipi di personalità là fuori - non tutti i metodi di trading si adattano a tutti Sono molto molto logico, preciso ed esatto - ecco perché il mio trading è preciso
...
Hi EOD,

Good question - The cycles REPEAT, especially the static cycles, I have a separate page on my charting software to mark the cycles down, simply as vertical lines - I also have other software that calculates cycles automatically and repeats the sequence on the price chart, if you look at the 4 year static cycle I just posted above, that is a simple 4 year repeating static cycle, the reason the chart does not show 2022 and onwards is because I took that screen shot in 2019 and haven't bothered taking another screen shot - it also adds a fair bit of predicting the future by posting about it years before the next cycle date

Yeah you definitely cannot trade historical cycles or prices - you need to follow the cycle to its next hit/occurrence, which I let people work that out for themselves

The cycle durations are from a lot of hard work and time isolating specific cycles - I'll never show the time periods of those - some are planetary too, those will NOT be static cycles, because the nature of the planets is that they do cycle around the sun in a perfect circle, its an ellipse cycle, so some periods of time a planet will be moving fast, then slow etc

If you take the 4th Jan 2022 date - which was the high in the SP500 at the time, the EARTH was at its FASTEST point in its cycle around the sun - which was a nice coincidence, but other timing caused the top

I've simply stopped taking screen shots - I might restart, but I cannot reveal the full details of certain cycles

I will give you this one for free - This is a chart of CORN - The time Cycle is the planet URANUS - which divides harmonically - the HIGH to HIGH cycles are 120 degrees apart, so are the LOW to LOW cycles RED lines the other cycle line showing the 1/12th cycle which is 30 degrees of the Uranus cycle, shows a UP/DOWN sequence

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If you have ever read Gann or Michael Jenkins - they both refer to dividing the circle by 2 or 3 to get the harmonics - What they were really saying is divide 360 degrees by the harmonics of 2 or 3 to find what a market is working out to - sometimes as with CORN its very very very clear, other markets its hard to find anything

Look the markets are doing weird and wonderful things on the big stage - its nice to know timing, but its not crucial to trading - to Investing yes

They are BUILDING GEOMETRIC STRUCTURES over the years - this is why Fibonacci shows up often, but the other key building block ratios of the Cube and Square are also present - the SP500 Index did not suddenly stop dead on 57.7% as a % fall from the 2007 high for no reason whatsoever

Anyway, for the DJIA it recently did this weird thing of using the 2009 low PRICE dividing by the Fibonacci ratio and it converting into a TIME CYCLE!

Do the same calculation but use the next major Fib ratio which is 1.382 and see where that date comes out to!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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THT
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} {image} {image} {image}
It's all geometrical - once it balances, it reverses/turns
THT
I showed a composite index 4 year cycle of NATURAL GAS

Well here is the MONTHLY chart as I have it marked out - Pretty soon that trend is going UP

I've enjoyed a ride up in the first wave (out with a trailing stop) and now I m waiting for the lower time-frames to show bullishness and I'll buy again for a buy and hold in my pension fund

If it follows its previous moves, it should go up for 2 years then collapse - obviously there will be pullbacks of a half decent nature en-route

PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE

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THT
Quoting Thtpro
{quote} It's all geometrical - once it balances, it reverses/turns
Agreed
I have a bit of an idea about the vertical but not a lot about the Horizontal
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Quoting Thtpro
I showed a composite index 4 year cycle of NATURAL GAS Well here is the MONTHLY chart as I have it marked out - Pretty soon that trend is going UP I've enjoyed a ride up in the first wave (out with a trailing stop) and now I m waiting for the lower time-frames to show bullishness and I'll buy again for a buy and hold in my pension fund If it follows its previous moves, it should go up for 2 years then collapse - obviously there will be pullbacks of a half decent nature en-route PATH OF LEAST RESISTANCE {image}
Quoting Thtpro
{quote}{quote} Ciao EOD, Bella domanda: i cicli si RIPETONO, in particolare i cicli statici. Ho una pagina separata sul mio software di creazione di grafici per contrassegnare i cicli, semplicemente come linee verticali. Ho anche un altro software che calcola automaticamente i cicli e ripete la sequenza sul grafico dei prezzi. Se guardi il ciclo statico di 4 anni che ho appena pubblicato sopra, è un semplice ciclo statico ripetuto di 4 anni. Il motivo per cui il grafico non mostra il 2022 e oltre è perché ho fatto quello screenshot nel 2019 e non...
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First of all, thank you for sharing some of your knowledge.
so you mean to tell me that I have to look for the cycles by sight, looking at the past? and trade like this? I don't have complete information to have an opinion. but I'm happy if you can make gains this way.
Quoting Eod
{quote} ------------------------------------- First of all, thank you for sharing some of your knowledge. so you mean to tell me that I have to look for the cycles by sight, looking at the past? and trade like this? I don't have complete information to have an opinion. but I'm happy if you can make gains this way.
Hi

No worries happy to

No I think you're misunderstanding something, let me try to clarify as I probably haven't explained it very well

You have to find the cycle in the first place - the same cycles don't repeat on all markets at the same time - it would be fantastic is that happened, but it doesn't - Jim Hurst published a table of "average" cycles that he found when looking at 1000 markets - some of them are a good starting place, but again they will not isolate for every market

Just like you and I have different personalities, so do markets and this then spills down to what if any cycles they are working out to - on a deeper level, each market is working out to some geometric structure and that structure forces price action and time cycles, so you need to try to discover what is happening, which is a lot of work - you don't need to do this though - this is why on every market you will find fibonacci ratios, ratios of the square, cube etc and often see harmonic patterns such as the gartley, butterfly etc - the market is working through geometric growth/decline etc

Once you find a cycle it is very highly likely to repeat and repeat and repeat BUT, it will also be influenced by larger cycles and sometimes those bigger cycles will override your cycle - nothing is 100%

But lets say you find a 100 day cycle that has repeated nicely for say 5 years, the chances of it working on its next occurrence are very high - you don't trade it blindly, you wait for price to act as its following the cycle etc

Also if the big cycle is in a downtrend and the smaller cycle is expected to uptrend, then the price action might not pronounced due to the big cycle effect

If you take that CORN chart I posted - you have over 100 years of price action backing up the cycles - its pretty nailed on that 2027 will be a high, we are currently at lows within the 7 year cycle - mid cycle - you can profit on the upside and in 2027 when it peaks you can short it for 7 years down into the next cycle low - this is pretty much as guaranteed as you'll ever get in the markets - you have a ultra high probability cycle provable for over 100 years, it was an absolute no brainer to go long in 2020 and a trader could just trade that 1 market and make an absolute killing if they positioned themselves correctly

you cannot just come along and say right I'll try a 100 day cycle from this point and expect it to work - you have use past price data to see if a cycle is active - which is a lot of work back testing

This is GBPUSD on a WEEKLY TF - I've marked off the major lows - guess what, there's a pattern there, we have a cycle window of 404-435 WEEKS between lows, there should be some type of low 404-435 WEEKS after the last date on that chart, that you can trade in the weeks and months after to the upside

The other thing to note is that preceding the cycle dates there's some pretty fierce plunges down - which may or may not happen into the next occurrence

Then you would test other low to low cycles, high to high cycles etc to narrow down any other cycles - or you buy software to extract the cycles

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Like I said above, you don't blindly trade the cycle dates, you wait for price action to confirm the cycle high or low and then trade in the direction of the expected cycle trend - the cycles just add an extra layer of expectation, you don't need the cycles, if you trade with the trend you are likely to trade along with the cycle anyway - I just like to know if there's any kind of cycle present, because I know 95% of other traders out there won't be looking at them, let alone know about them

Hope I've clarified better - if not I'm happy to try to explain further
THT
Quoting Thtpro
{quote} Hi No worries happy to No I think you're misunderstanding something, let me try to clarify as I probably haven't explained it very well You have to find the cycle in the first place - the same cycles don't repeat on all markets at the same time - it would be fantastic is that happened, but it doesn't - Jim Hurst published a table of "average" cycles that he found when looking at 1000 markets - some of them are a good starting place, but again they will not isolate for every market Just like you and I have different personalities, so do markets...
If you find a REPEATING cycle pattern, it provides you with a "HEADS UP" of a trend reversal AND trading opportunities

I'm only showing the general picture - to take this further you need to develop a plan of action etc

But if you trade in the direction of the trend which is being FORCED to move by the cycle - then it is the path of least resistance

I tend to focus on the longer term, because I am a lazy person and i prefer plenty of "thinking time" rather than being forced to make quick fast decisions

The price of your favourite chocolate is going to rise over the next few years - along with most commodities - be prepared to pay more or give it up!

Crude Oil - should be a 4 year cycle low this year and then rise, how much? We don't know, but if it rises, it WILL force a bullish trend on the lower time frames that will be tradable - The cycle might NOT happen, but at least you are AWARE of the potential, compared to average Joe Trader

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Something completely different - Who buys clothes or linen?

COTTON - another 4 year low to low cycle!


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So how do we trade these cycles?

Well remember IF we are right on the cycle, the trend should turn bullish

You can trade the WEEKLY time-frame if you wish

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Or you can trade both the WEEKLY & the DIALY etc or just the DAILY
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As you can see the TREND changed to what we were EXPECTING and then we can formulate a trading method/plan to exploit it - HOWEVER you wish

I've showed you one of my Indicator methods on the WEEKLY TF - to prove to you that it works and you can definitely trade Indicators in & under the right conditions/ circumstances

Notice the 13RSI position on the 2RSI pullbacks - when markets are trending it will hover around those % levels, so you can use it to confirm the trend too
THT
Quoting Thtpro
If you find a REPEATING cycle pattern, it provides you with a "HEADS UP" of a trend reversal AND trading opportunities I'm only showing the general picture - to take this further you need to develop a plan of action etc But if you trade in the direction of the trend which is being FORCED to move by the cycle - then it is the path of least resistance I tend to focus on the longer term, because I am a lazy person and i prefer plenty of "thinking time" rather than being forced to make quick fast decisions The price of your favourite chocolate is going...
All very interesting material
Please keep posting
I have had a quick look at Share Pad wow that's a whole new ball game in itself
On the similar style as Bar chart
Oh to wind the clock back, how I would do things a little different
Anyone affected by Interest rates?

In 2020 the long term trend turned UP from down - the days of 0% Interest are long gone now

1980 to 2020 is the High to Low cycle - all you do, it spin it now, so we 2020 + 40 years as the Low to High cycle and you can work out when Int rates will go DOUBLE DIGIT - make sure you do not have any debt then!

You get the picture of how to use this - and if Int rates are rising then it means bond prices are falling and as bond prices have a maturity date on them that pays out at par £100 per bond, you can pick them up for bargain prices for a nice capital gain if bonds are your thing - obviously you'll need to time the purchase for optimum return, but I'm sure you understand the objective

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PS - Central Banks DO NOT set Interest rates - Central Banks are FORCED to set rates that the bond MARKETS have set - the bond markets MOVE first, then a couple/few months later central banks are FORCED to follow suit - GOVTS are the ULTIMATE LAGGING INDICATOR

Here's the 3 month T-Bond note: Moved first, FED FOLLOWS

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Here's a Brucie Bonus (UK traders will understand)

This is the UK base rate since 1900

Notice the 1929-1951 period (which includes a world war) and the period from 2000-2020

Well that PERIOD REPEATED on a planetary cycle Its WHY the economy stumbled in BOTH periods AND its why Interest HAD to come down to ultra low levels

You can prove this concept to yourself quite easily - If you get a chart of the DJIA from 1929-1932 and compare it to the NASDAQ100 from 2000-2003 you will see that they are very very similar - because of the planetary cycle it repeated on an exact like for like and that is what forces the price patterns to look similar - I know its crazy and hard to believe, but we do not live in a world that most people think we live in!

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Take all these far right actions by groups around the world - coincidence? It might be but its approx 100 years since the Nazi movement started in the 1920's! 100 year cycle again

WD Gann refused to mention the planets interfering with markets, he hid behind the term "The Law of Vibration" but he meant planets - google "Ganns 1954 Coffee santos letter"

Again you do not need to know anything about planets to make money - I just like to know what the hell is going on, if it has the potential to affect my life and I've pretty much figured out the basics

I'm pretty conscious of taking the thread in a different direction, that is not the intention, some of these things need to be explained because they are all related - but if we can TIME big turns, it FORCES TRENDS to change/start, that we can exploit for financial gain to our advantage

I've spent the past 14 years delving into all this, I left it last in my research, focusing on Elliott Wave and the like! whereas I should of concentrated on it from the start, but I didn't believe all that WD Gann planetary hocus pocus stuff!

Anyway I am meant to be on holidays and I am taking most of August off, so I might be on here that much for the rest of the month - Here's a little task for you:

  1. Get a stock market charting universe of 20+ stocks
  2. Turn the time-frame to MONTHLY and have price data going back 20 years or more
  3. Then flick through EACH stock looking for PROMINANT LOWS (like on the Cotton chart etc)
  4. Take a rough time measurement
  5. If you get a a regular interval of say 3/4/5 years etc then put that stock on a watchlist
  6. If you do not get regular intervals - move on from that stock/market
  7. Now on your watch/prospect list move down to the WEEKLY chart and note the L-L expectation for the YEAR its due
  8. Then you WAIT for the year to arrive and keep watching WEEKLY TF for BULLISH price action
  9. Then when that happens you are on high alert for trading opportunities on the weekly or daily TF's - your choice
  10. Use NATURAL GAS as a template - lows were expected FEB 2024, price rose as expected, its now pulling back hard which should force another low on the weekly TF, from there it should form bullish price confirmations etc - that is when we get interested about getting back in (I was in that market, trailed a stop up and got stopped out for a decent profit - just waiting for it to turn back up and I will be back in)

Its Important to remember that the market will give you what it wants to give you - you cannot expect a mega trending run, it might or might not happen - more often that not, it does, but sometimes it can be lacklustre!

THT
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} All very interesting material Please keep posting I have had a quick look at Share Pad wow that's a whole new ball game in itself On the similar style as Bar chart Oh to wind the clock back, how I would do things a little different
Yeah its good - Its built more for the fuzzymentalist than the charting trader but I keep asking them to develop it - I'm a lone voice so they will not rush to do unless its easy

I keep looking at Trading view but there's limitations there too as to how I would use it

will keep posting as time progresses
THT
Talking of BARCHART - Forgot to add this to the COTTON comment

The COMMERCIALS [RED LINE] are NET LONG Cotton - this is not their normal position (they are normally short as they hedge prices) and it is often a very big pre-cursor to price rises in the months ahead and as we are expecting a LOW in price that turns into a bullish trend - this is one giant hell of a signal

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THT
Quoting Thtpro
Talking of BARCHART - Forgot to add this to the COTTON comment The COMMERCIALS [RED LINE] are NET LONG Cotton - this is not their normal position (they are normally short as they hedge prices) and it is often a very big pre-cursor to price rises in the months ahead and as we are expecting a LOW in price that turns into a bullish trend - this is one giant hell of a signal {image}
Lots and Lots to think about
Thank you
Ahh hate it when this happens

Had to cut this one short as I have to leave the house for a few hours and the trade triggered!

Taken 2.5R which is fine

another successful Indicator TREND trade - you could have got in on the prior swing low a couple of bars back but the pattern was not quite there - this is probably going a bit higher than where I had to get out

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THT
Here's a live short - this one is a PICTURE PERFECT - ROSS HOOK - No cycles involved just price action

If you are not familiar with, worth reading up on - Ross Hooks only show up in a TREND - I call them Gann pullbacks, because Gann wrote about them over a century ago

This is the first time I've mentioned Ross Hooks - The Swing File identified this one - but the KEY to this is the STEEPNESS of the 10 SMA - we simple follow the momentum and when we get a decent angle on the SMA, it usually produces a Ross Hook

Green Line = Entry
Red Line = Initial Stop
Pink Line = Trailing Stop

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The aim is to WIN & make MONEY - We want to do that the easiest way possible to suit our personalities and style - this is just mine, it might not suit you
THT
Quoting Thtpro
{quote} Some of the cycles will always hit and miss - it's the nature of the beast Yeah I'm 49 and I sat down and worked out which cycles I might see and which I most likely won't - something to pass down to the kids and their children when they have them If they'd of been looking to do that, they'd of simply let it rip through everyone - they protected you and all - most colds we have now are old pandemic viruses! just milder versions Sharepad - its not perfect, you can't scan intra-day, you have to flick through a list - but its organised and...
thanks for sharing. i can't like posts for some reason.
GU heads-up

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"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
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