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Finding the trend

  • #321
  • Aug 3, 2024 5:23am Aug 3, 2024 5:23am
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question open to everyone. What would you do on Monday with this graph? the tf is h4. a long reaction is perhaps to be expected. for a trader position, what would you do?
  • #322
  • Aug 3, 2024 5:33am Aug 3, 2024 5:33am
Quoting Eod
{image} question open to everyone. What would you do on Monday with this graph? the tf is h4. a long reaction is perhaps to be expected. for a trader position, what would you do?
Trend more often continue than change direction. I would take only short trades on some shorter TF.

I agree that some pullback has to occur soon. But note that the WPR is utmost low and give no sign to a change is coming. So until a change shows up, I am following the trend. Proper money management and we will not lose too much during the trend change. When it happens, we are ready to go North.
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  • #323
  • Aug 3, 2024 5:38am Aug 3, 2024 5:38am
One of my trading problems used to be, that I was allways fearfull that the trend would not continue. So I did not dare to trade. And then I followed and saw, that the trend was continuing forever and I lost so many opportunities. Now a days I keep trading the trend and when it change direction, then I have a loosing day. No problem. Loosing is part of the game.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #324
  • Aug 3, 2024 6:24am Aug 3, 2024 6:24am
Always have some method of determining the TREND - this can really help you, being price or moving averages or indicators etc

This chart shows a number of factors and it fits into WD Gann's trend determination methods that he mentioned in the early1900's

 

  1. This is the official FED's fund rate for decades and we can see 2 clear trends up and down
  2. Higher Highs / Higher Lows on the way up and Lower Highs and Lower Lows on the way down
  3. The times when you got lower lows and lower highs in the uptrend were much much smaller than any correction in the uptrend and same applies for the down trend for rallies
  4. Watch for a change of trend when the time and price exceeds that of any correction in the prior trend - happening right now
  5. Regardless, trading in the direction of the trend is always the path of least resistance

From a cycle analysis point of view - there's a clear 40 year DOWN cycle played out, I don't have the price data from the 1930's to show the 40 year up cycle, but anyway, if we've got the cycle right then we should see rising trend up for the next 40 years, along with the periods of double digit rates etc

This is one to pass down to the next generations, because you have a way of predicting Interest rates (long term) here which is in 2050-2060 there should be double digit int rates in play and all that that brings economically - This is where cycle analysis comes in, it allows you to forecast the end of a trend, but that's going off subject and adds a few layers of complication

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  • #325
  • Aug 3, 2024 7:15am Aug 3, 2024 7:15am
Quoting Thtpro
Always have some method of determining the TREND - this can really help you, being price or moving averages or indicators etc This chart shows a number of factors and it fits into WD Gann's trend determination methods that he mentioned in the early1900's This is the official FED's fund rate for decades and we can see 2 clear trends up and down Higher Highs / Higher Lows on the way up and Lower Highs and Lower Lows on the way down The times when you got lower lows and lower highs in the uptrend were much much smaller than any correction in the uptrend...
i love cycle analysis… is there a 3d to read?
  • #326
  • Aug 3, 2024 1:04pm Aug 3, 2024 1:04pm
Quoting Thtpro
Always have some method of determining the TREND - this can really help you, being price or moving averages or indicators etc This chart shows a number of factors and it fits into WD Gann's trend determination methods that he mentioned in the early1900's This is the official FED's fund rate for decades and we can see 2 clear trends up and down Higher Highs / Higher Lows on the way up and Lower Highs and Lower Lows on the way down The times when you got lower lows and lower highs in the uptrend were much much smaller than any correction in the uptrend...
Wonderfull knowledge.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #327
  • Aug 3, 2024 1:09pm Aug 3, 2024 1:09pm
So guys. We all have our methods. If we gather all traders on FF then we know it all.

Can we make a tiny test here? Each of you - please tell which two pairs you will trade on monday, if you are only allowed to trade 2 pairs. And what will be you analysing?

I will show two pairs also - sometime tomorrow, Sunday.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #328
  • Aug 3, 2024 2:27pm Aug 3, 2024 2:27pm
Quoting RiskFighter
So guys. We all have our methods. If we gather all traders on FF then we know it all. Can we make a tiny test here? Each of you - please tell which two pairs you will trade on monday, if you are only allowed to trade 2 pairs. And what will be you analysing? I will show two pairs also - sometime tomorrow, Sunday.
And
The Prize Is

ps
If this is meant to include me
Sorry but I play
Walking Football
Monday and Thursday mornings
and some-times League matches on Wednesday Mornings if my body allows, and I am 75 in October

Remember I have No Robot just trade manual when I see a set up
Saying that my interest will always be in JPY Pairs
only on very rare occasions other pairs
  • #329
  • Aug 3, 2024 9:10pm Aug 3, 2024 9:10pm
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} And The Prize Is ps If this is meant to include me Sorry but I play Walking Football Monday and Thursday mornings and some-times League matches on Wednesday Mornings if my body allows, and I am 75 in October Remember I have No Robot just trade manual when I see a set up Saying that my interest will always be in JPY Pairs only on very rare occasions other pairs
OK. Yes I cannot expect everybody to work the same way as me. I am 69 and the only exercise I get is my fingers on the keyboard - almost 24/7. My robots are normally not left alone - can be. They are just an assistent that takes the trades I have decided to take. Mondays I might not be trading before London open, but all other days I trade from about 2 am London time. And I am present. I need 4-5 trades to reach my goal. Then I get some more sleep and then I can relax most of the day visiting FF and Youtube to get viser and optimizing strategies and robots.

So my habit is to analyse the market at sunday evening and decide what to trade the next day. For the time being I use my MULTI WPR tool and Curency Strength Analysis.

I believe to have an edge this way. If I should trade only one currency, then I totally agree that it would be the JPY pairs. They normally also ends up as part of my trading.

Have a nice Sunday!
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #330
  • Aug 3, 2024 9:39pm Aug 3, 2024 9:39pm
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} And The Prize Is ps If this is meant to include me Sorry but I play Walking Football Monday and Thursday mornings and some-times League matches on Wednesday Mornings if my body allows, and I am 75 in October Remember I have No Robot just trade manual when I see a set up Saying that my interest will always be in JPY Pairs only on very rare occasions other pairs
The Prize is, that we all can learn from each other. In this thread many traders have learned a lot from You. You have been very generous.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #331
  • Aug 3, 2024 11:14pm Aug 3, 2024 11:14pm
So here is my 2 cents for monday.

JPY and CHF are being stronger every day. AUD is being weaker.

Two of the pairs I will keep an eye on Monday is AUDJPY and AUDCHF.

If you don't want same currency in both pairs, then AUDJPY and CADCHF.

Things might go in another direction, but these pairs have been in a nice trend for 3 weeks now. And the trend has been even steeper the last days. Of cause we are awaiting a pullback soon, and it might be on Monday. But if I should fear those pullbacks, then I never get any trades.

I go for an edge here, and if I am wrong, then there will be no foot at the table monday, then I can lose a couple of pounds. Amazing.
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MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #332
  • Aug 3, 2024 11:27pm Aug 3, 2024 11:27pm
Quoting RiskFighter
So guys. We all have our methods. If we gather all traders on FF then we know it all. Can we make a tiny test here? Each of you - please tell which two pairs you will trade on monday, if you are only allowed to trade 2 pairs. And what will be you analysing? I will show two pairs also - sometime tomorrow, Sunday.
traders don't need to "know it all" to beat the market, they need to agree on rules, for example "TurtleTraders".
but that is hard since every trader think he/she has the perfect setting, so they will disagree on every rule :/

the only factor that no trader can disagree with is TIME, because they have no say in it since it is a FACT.
TIME can organize Direction and PA(HHHL-LLLH) for traders to read the market correctly then plan their trading style, strategy, entries/exits .... etc.

TIME= number of TF bars in desired period(session/day/week/month ....)

examples for H1 TF, week(120) for direction, day(24) for PA
(just remember, this is for reading the market not a strategy)

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cheers,
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #333
  • Aug 3, 2024 11:39pm Aug 3, 2024 11:39pm
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} traders don't need to "know it all" to beat the market, they need to agree on rules, for example "TurtleTraders". but that is hard since every trader think he/she has the perfect setting, so they will disagree on every rule :/ the only factor that no trader can disagree with is TIME, because they have no say in it since it is a FACT. TIME can organize Direction and PA(HHHL-LLLH) for traders to read the market correctly then plan their trading style, strategy, entries/exits .... etc. TIME= number of TF bars in desired period(session/day/week/month...
A fine way to show a trending pair.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #334
  • Edited Aug 4, 2024 3:20am Aug 3, 2024 11:56pm | Edited Aug 4, 2024 3:20am
Quoting RiskFighter
So guys. We all have our methods. If we gather all traders on FF then we know it all. Can we make a tiny test here? Each of you - please tell which two pairs you will trade on monday, if you are only allowed to trade 2 pairs. And what will be you analysing? I will show two pairs also - sometime tomorrow, Sunday.
I think I will go long EUR/NZD if the pattern emerges after London Open. So, just this one trade, because I still have one short position in CHF/JPY. I might close it after the market open tomorrow at morning local time. CHF/JPY should have actually been closed earlier when it was around 30 pips in profit, but it was already too late at night. There is a possibility that the Monday gap opens even lower, but the position can only be closed after a few hours because trading is not possible when the spread is too high.
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  • #335
  • Aug 4, 2024 12:11am Aug 4, 2024 12:11am
Quoting RiskFighter
{quote} OK. Yes I cannot expect everybody to work the same way as me. I am 69 and the only exercise I get is my fingers on the keyboard - almost 24/7. My robots are normally not left alone - can be. They are just an assistent that takes the trades I have decided to take. Mondays I might not be trading before London open, but all other days I trade from about 2 am London time. And I am present. I need 4-5 trades to reach my goal. Then I get some more sleep and then I can relax most of the day visiting FF and Youtube to get viser and optimizing strategies...
Hi I have a simply template to trade with
Sometimes the trade as gone without me (still in bed) as I trade around London Open
Other Times there might be a big gap which I do not fancy
or simply I just do not want to trade the template that particular day
This is so Simple most guys will just laugh and move on to something a little more Guru_ish
I use MY Chart Open, then use the +/- 23% either side as initial entries and stops
If my thoughts think the Trend is down
I Sell the - 23% Line with the + 23% Line as a initial Stop
Opposite for a BUY
We have Targets to aim for but also think how to take the Risk out of the trade as soon as possible
I have developed a decent money management Method
to add to this rather simple method that works well
Also I have rules about how many times I trade these 2 levels in a day just in case its a real whipsaw day
So in fact the money management could be said to be more important than the actual Trading Method
Think Buy account Sell account ?
If guys do a little chart watching, there are trades that set up better than others
My Simple logic
Above OPEN Their is Buying
Below OPEN Their is Selling
on that day
so no need for me to post everyday
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  • #336
  • Aug 4, 2024 12:36am Aug 4, 2024 12:36am
Same idea just slightly different Calculations
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  • #337
  • Aug 4, 2024 12:45am Aug 4, 2024 12:45am
Or even this one

Is ADR important

SO DAM RIGHT IT IS

IS MONEY MANAGEMENT IMPORTANT

YOU BET YOUR LIFE IT IS
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  • #338
  • Aug 4, 2024 1:23am Aug 4, 2024 1:23am
Time-based

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Time&Price squared

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"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #339
  • Aug 4, 2024 1:31am Aug 4, 2024 1:31am
I make decisions based on a strength indicator based on RSI. with markets closed I see that JPY and CHF are high and don't seem to want to go down. NZD is down and EUR is up. All the others lie at the bottom and do not seem to react. Tomorrow I will watch NZDCAD and EURNZD. if they go long I will follow them
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  • #340
  • Aug 4, 2024 1:34am Aug 4, 2024 1:34am
Quoting Kwt4x
Time-based {image} Time&Price squared {image}
Hi
Your Gann work and Charts really impressed me
but
as I had no idea how to reproduce them I lost interest
Nice to see you around , just a shame about you and Parisboys little spat
guess we all believe in what we believe in
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