New Cable Thread & Other Pairs

We don't get it on 30m, but we get it in H1. What is your target? 2422-30-46?

Tomorrow we can precise more but for now 50% H4 full swing.
The short will be a momentum trade itself.
Now it's about how much we can squeeze out of this and catch the move down.
Everything is coming together.

The pattern has been confirmed and triggered on H1.

Sorry for delay in reply - went to sit in the garden for a break and catch some sun

There's not one standard setting unfortunately, Hurst created a table of "average" cycle lengths, which are there or there abouts, but I've found you need to hone down to specifics - measure low to lows etc, you will find some that keep on repeating

another hurdle is that sometimes these cycles "Invert" (so a high becomes a low etc) and sometimes the cycle "disappears" then months later reappears etc

The reason that you will never get static cycles to hit exactly on time every time is because price action is moving in a higher dimension behind the scenes but we are forced to view that price and time action on a " 2 dimensional chart - so there's always going to be issues on exact timing, the same applies when trading geometrical price ratio's/levels such as fib levels, extensions etc - you only ever get EXACT timing and price levels when the higher dimension price movement is "square on" to our fixed 2D view of it, which is occasionally! The rest of the time its distorted as it moves in its growth/decline phases

Study material - Dewey / Gann / RN Nelson (Elliott Wave) / Walter Bressert / Robert Miner of Dynamic Traders / Martin Armstrong / William Garrett (Torque analysis of financial markets) / Michael Jenkins / Bryce Gilmore etc

There's a lot of stuff/info out there, but just keep it simple, you only need a few fairly accurate cycles to be able to form pretty accurate outlook

Start off measuring low to low counts - you can average them out or just use the min/max counts on your charts to be aware of potential turns

Here's GBPUSD - clear low to low 404-435 week count - so when the next occurrence arrives in a couple of years time, you watch for daily bullish etc

You can then look for a higher count low to low to form the bigger cycle on and lower counts within those 404-435 L-L waves

Notice the really big collapse into the 840-850 week low to low's - That has the look of a pattern to it - there's no way price can get up to the highs of those levels of circa 2 before the next occurrence of that cycle, so we could see a triple bottom or even lower - in any event we need to watch the timing around that for a nice vertical plunge and if it happens, we have a confirmed cycle with confirmed price action, that you can then forecast forward circa 850 weeks to happen again etc etc - we're not Interested in price, if we have a method of timing highs/lows, you just wait for price action to confirm and go with the expectation - its not 100% guaranteed, but when you see enough hits, you gain the confidence

435 weeks in circa half the 850 week cycle - you can test this cycle by dividing into 3 or 2's to get the harmonics - remember it will not be exactly perfect



There are many markets that I've not managed to be able to extract cycles for - leave them alone, move on to markets that display nice patterns of low to lows

[ I like my Fast TMA Line indicator (attached) because it is smoother and looks cleaner on the chart. I use a period of 25 and a Multiple of 1.0 but you can use other settings as well. 50 period and 2.0 multiple work out nicely also. [/quote]
Hi thanks for this, I like exploring multiple time frame confluences. I use Trading View so have had a look at duplicating your set up.
Would you please just confirm that the chart in this post has the TMA settings of 25 and 1 and is H4 and D1,as you refer to above?
I can replicate the H4 TMA but the D1 doesn't match yours at all. Any suggestions appreciated.

EUR/USD is trying to recover from 1.0873 low it made yesterday, resistance is still at 1.0902 and a break above opens the road for 1.0920 or 1.0929 weekly R1 and 1.0942. A failure to beat that will find it trading the opposite way towards the low at 1.0873 and some lower to 1.0860.

Daily volatility (range) 34 pips

Option expiries for Tuesday: 1.0880 (EU414.9m) & 1.0960 (EU302.9m) Source: financialjuice.com

1 hour

Green pips!

thankyou very much for your detailed post. Its always good to be spending time in the garden getting some well needed sunshine.
you have helped alot to fill in some more gaps to try to understand what amyc was doing a few years back. Thank you. I will start off measuring low to low counts.

amyc here on forexfactory counted weeks. I upload this photo here from a page of notes made from fxbookies (fxbookies was a site made by some members here, but is not on the net anymore) where I was posting with amyc at the time. Here on the post dated 02-01-2011, 07.20 AM. she wrote,
The reason I am bearish on au is that I count weeks when I trade, the bottom of the cycle for au was the low in december at 9537, it then moved up into 1.0256 exactly as expected and then made a correction right on cue back down into 9804, this also corresponded with the eu bottom......

Hi thanks for this, I like exploring multiple time frame confluences. I use Trading View so have had a look at duplicating your set up. Would you please just confirm that the chart in this post has the TMA settings of 25 and 1 and is H4 and D1,as you refer to above? I can replicate the H4 TMA but the D1 doesn't match yours at all. Any suggestions appreciated. {image}[/quote]


Yes, the settings are correct as per attached. I am not acquainted with the settings required for Trading View. You can get yourself an MT4 demo from a broker and duplicate it that way.

I believe the small bounce in Gold is over. I entered a Sell last night at 2398 with TP at 2357. I could be wrong, though. We´ll see.

Gold
We could get bullish engulfing on H2.

EJ
First 600 pips almost done!!
More please!
Shaping for a bearish engulfing on monthly chart. Very good!

Gold price is paralleling the lower down sloping band of the H4 TMA. Generally, this resolves itself by breaking in the direction of the TMA, in this case, down. This is a tricky setup for Gold, The Great Deceiver...

the gift that keeps on giving....extra juice

BOJ next week could accelerate it .....or stall it

Not out of the woods yet! 1.0860 is still intact and is holding. Technically 1.0871 was a place to add shorts but not a close below yet! Bulls last chance to survive. Waiting to see 1.0885 holding for more downside!

Thanks for that ATR being 100 is the difference. thanks

interesting the gold variances by broker with regard to timing.

some have H2 like yours others have this.

bouncing off SMA200. differnece is as to when gold opens each morning. some have it one hour after forex, others have it same time.
i think yours is an hour later.

There was a morning star pattern on H1 and later bullish engulfing, this one is just more aid. H4 should produce nice Hammer.
All posted here.