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Finding the trend

  • #101
  • Jul 11, 2024 7:55am Jul 11, 2024 7:55am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Hi Same set up So if you are in a buy trade from a Daily signal You could track the action by looking at a much smaller time frame {image} {image}
Oh, you are showing the M1 here. Yes that is scary and you could have avoided a loss by doing this. But things are happening so fast that you had missed the opportunity with a blink of your eyes.
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  • #102
  • Jul 11, 2024 8:00am Jul 11, 2024 8:00am
Look at this: EURJPY is the same shit. Means you cannot trust any of your strategies right now.

Yesterday it was NZD now it is more pairs. I think USD was the problem.

My trading is hereby suspended for the rest of this week.
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  • #103
  • Jul 11, 2024 8:01am Jul 11, 2024 8:01am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} RED NEWS
Yes and wise people close positions before News. I don't.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #104
  • Jul 11, 2024 8:30am Jul 11, 2024 8:30am
I have no knowlegde of News and the impact from news. But looking into the FF calender and seing the numbers for the red news today, I cannot understand that those numbers should be so dangerous at to this market reaktion. So I think it is the robots at the big investing companies that have gone beserk.
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  • #105
  • Jul 11, 2024 9:21am Jul 11, 2024 9:21am
Quoting OAPDave
OK I am going to delete my posts later this evening and move on Just leave you with this Simple Question or is it Is the Trend Up or Down on the Jpy pairs
Time will tell. I am not trading more this week. Clarification is needed.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #106
  • Jul 11, 2024 9:33am Jul 11, 2024 9:33am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Yes but what Time ? Might it even be a LEVEL ?
I do not use levels. But from monday at London open I will trust the tip of the WPR on H4. Is it going up or down.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #107
  • Jul 12, 2024 12:59am Jul 12, 2024 12:59am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Sorry but Some levels are worth a look at Just for interest Yearly Highs and Lows for one {image} {image} {image} {image}
I do know, that there are lots of people making money where levels are one of the confluences. I just look at what the price is doing. As late mr. Dow pointed out: "All information in the world is in the current price".
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #108
  • Jul 13, 2024 12:34am Jul 13, 2024 12:34am
Hi RiskFighter. Please, post your analisys for the nex Trading week. Starting d1 analisys. Ok?
thanks in advance
  • #109
  • Jul 13, 2024 2:31am Jul 13, 2024 2:31am
Quoting Eod
Hi RiskFighter. Please, post your analisys for the nex Trading week. Starting d1 analisys. Ok? thanks in advance
My analysis is allways for the day. I never look further out. And normally i do it around 7:00 ECT. And specially on mondays I don't rely on the Asian data.

I can post it monday as an example. Otherwise it is so simple, that anybody can do it.
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  • #110
  • Jul 13, 2024 2:36am Jul 13, 2024 2:36am
Regarding the MultiWPR strategy. I am thinking to extend the boundaries. They are -30 and -70 now. These number gives sometimes ranging results. Not that it is a problem, you can see that with your eye and filter it away. But real trendig conditions seems to put the curve closer to 0 and -100. I will investigate that in the coming week.

But still - no matter the number, then the very tip of the curve is good information. A steep tip up or down shows trending curve.
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  • #111
  • Jul 14, 2024 1:19pm Jul 14, 2024 1:19pm
Quoting RoelsMajor
Hi Bro, Thank you for your thought. Oscillator or sinewave are very interesting. Could you add criteria A-B-C-D-E for the Wave, take a look from the reference line (Mean)? A for Start and E for Entry Point. Might be good for H1. Reference line should be line 50 (moving average). {image} {image}
Did you ever consider that price doesn't move in sine waves? It's more like this if you average (and noramlize) over trends of equal lengths:
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And when looking at different average trends, you'll even see a "constant":
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  • #112
  • Jul 14, 2024 11:05pm Jul 14, 2024 11:05pm
Riskfighter, let me know. For your analisys multi tf, you start from d1 and arrivem15 correct?
  • #113
  • Edited Jul 15, 2024 12:18am Jul 14, 2024 11:34pm | Edited Jul 15, 2024 12:18am
I promissed to share my daily analysis structure. There are many ways to do this, even using only my method. I will be trading the H1 TF today and this is what I will show.

Keep in mind, that thursday and friday containged surprices, that affect the curves into this week. Will JPY still be strong trending? And this add to the fact, that this is monday. You cannot trust the Asian market on mondays. EU and US might want to do something else than the Asian.

I think it is a waste to use too many timeframes. You might miss trendings if you sort away pairs on the daily that are trending nicely at M15. So for analysing the H1 I will use the Daily, H4 and H1 timeframes.

I like to see

  1. Pairs that a keeping in OB and OS areas.
  2. Pais with a liniare trending performance from Low to High or High to Low.
  3. A steep tip of the curve.


I will sort away on the daily the pairs that are obviously ranging. Today I will sort away GBPAUD, NZDCAD, NZDCHF, NZDUSD for this reason.

More pairs could be sorted away, but I give them a chance to the next level.

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  • #114
  • Edited Jul 15, 2024 12:21am Jul 14, 2024 11:35pm | Edited Jul 15, 2024 12:21am
Now looking at H4. Same things as when looking at Daily.

I will sort away AUDJPY, EURJPY, GBPJPY.

I see that GBPCAD was a fault. It is trending nicely on H1.

This leaves me with 17 pairs out of 24 after sorting on Daily and H4.

There are really go in the market today.
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  • #115
  • Edited Jul 15, 2024 12:31am Jul 14, 2024 11:35pm | Edited Jul 15, 2024 12:31am
Now going to H1 timeframe.

Many pairs are still in the game. I go for the pairs that looks the best. The GBP pairs are lying steady in the very top of the chart. There you have it. Nice trending pairs.

There really a no pairs that I will sort away now based on the WPR analysis. So now comes next step.
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  • #116
  • Edited Jul 15, 2024 12:13am Jul 14, 2024 11:35pm | Edited Jul 15, 2024 12:13am
Now the WPR break down has enden. 17 pairs remain. Here comes the more time consuming part. On each pair open the bar chart and do your normal analysis. S&R, channels, whatever you normally do.

I like to have the Smoothed Heiken Ashi present to support a quick view on the trend. Parameters: 1.1.45.1
Thats how I do it.

Then I have the Multi WPR chart on hand during the day on M15 to keep an eye on actual status.
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  • #117
  • Edited Jul 15, 2024 12:20am Jul 14, 2024 11:35pm | Edited Jul 15, 2024 12:20am
Again - this is my way. Nobody says it is the way that fit anybody else. I fill it is nice and quick to find the interesting pairs and get rit of the noice from non interesting pairs. If you are working on other timeframes, then use the method your way. But be ware, that excluding pairs on to much higher timeframes might remove some nice trends on lower timeframes.

And again - the grail for me is not my trading strategy - it is the Crystal Ball which tells me which pairs are trending.

Now I will start trading at 9:00 ECT. I will watch the MultiWPR chart at M15 at that time to see the actual curves in order to select my pairs to trade.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #118
  • Jul 15, 2024 12:27am Jul 15, 2024 12:27am
I keep away from JPY today. So this is where I have ended up right now. Many of those pairs are to far away from the mean. That is the backside of finding the most trending. I have to wait to se some pullbacks.
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  • #119
  • Edited 3:12am Jul 15, 2024 12:59am | Edited 3:12am
Quoting AntiCre
{quote} Did you ever consider that price doesn't move in sine waves? It's more like this if you average (and noramlize) over trends of equal lengths: {image} And when looking at different average trends, you'll even see a "constant": {image}
I may not fully understand what you're positing, but I see it simply through the eyes of an ordinary trader, observing price on chart that have undergone smoothing by brokers or liquidity providers. Prices movement follow liquidity providers as prices fluctuate; if not smoothed, it would be too noisy (no filtering). Unless you are HFT Traders, so we wont be too sophisticated. Some say average some say mean, it does not matter, when price fluctuate, average or mean does the same, and yes its a sinewave. Your data shows a half sine wave when trending.
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  • #120
  • Jul 15, 2024 4:12am Jul 15, 2024 4:12am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} I may not fully understand what you're positing
Not implying anything. I just like to make you (others) awars that price doesn't move in "sine waves". People sticking to the sine wave pov believe that price moves fastest during the mid of trends, and slow towards the start and end of trends. However, surveying trends, the opposite seems to be the case. AND: the momentum at the start and end is (of course always on average) identical, regardless of the subsequent trend duration, i.e. the inital momentum is no predictor of the subsequent trend. Just here to tie up loose ends ...
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