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  • #1,941
  • Jul 11, 2007 6:34am Jul 11, 2007 6:34am
Just take a look at US dollar index http://www.fxstreet.com/rates-charts/usdollar-index/ It has been falling like a rock.
  • #1,942
  • Jul 11, 2007 7:25am Jul 11, 2007 7:25am
what can we expect this morning from President Trichet ......and by the way holly shit the dollar is shitty right now....i think is time for a dueup. but im it will take a strong economic tip from the dollar to make any real damage...multi year high .....go hedging...go..
DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #1,943
  • Jul 11, 2007 7:27am Jul 11, 2007 7:27am
Quoting got pips?
what can we expect this morning from President Trichet ......and by the way holly shit the dollar is shitty right now....i think is time for a dueup. but im it will take a strong economic tip from the dollar to make any real damage...multi year high .....go hedging...go..


translated?
  • #1,944
  • Jul 11, 2007 7:28am Jul 11, 2007 7:28am
Quoting matador
As much as it may pain me, small 10k lot short on both pairs based on a impending...eventual.. retrace

Short from 1,3712 & 2,0280 respectively.

Target <= 3606 on E/U
Target of <= 2,02'ish on G/U

No stop, lot size is very small, I can wait

Matador:

Same here
  • #1,945
  • Jul 11, 2007 7:39am Jul 11, 2007 7:39am
Quoting got pips?
what can we expect this morning from President Trichet ......and by the way holly shit the dollar is shitty right now....i think is time for a dueup. but im it will take a strong economic tip from the dollar to make any real damage...multi year high .....go hedging...go..
This post made me laugh, go hedging go...
  • #1,946
  • Jul 11, 2007 7:41am Jul 11, 2007 7:41am
Quoting winterwhite
translated?
well i c the jump in the euro as a bernanke no giving us any direction really yesterday...

so like cnbc is tellin us the "fed has left us waiting for more signals.....

now we should be lookin at President Trichet comments today ......pay close attention....
DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #1,947
  • Jul 11, 2007 10:34am Jul 11, 2007 10:34am
Quoting squaw
I suppose EUR/USD pair will become a 1.40 mark in the nearest months.
The pare is way over bought, it should come down soon, i hope it will..
i m shorting at 1.3700 with no stop lose, if it hits 1.40 mark i m doomed....
  • #1,948
  • Jul 11, 2007 10:58am Jul 11, 2007 10:58am
Just use a small lot size, then you have no problems.

I'm using 1 * 10k lot, it would take close above 1,77 to kill my account

I think we'll see 1,34-1,36 before 1,77. But I wouldn't be suprised to see 2,0 on EUR/$ eventually... as in next 2-5 years.

Especially as EUR is flat-tight on interest rates, USD who knows?

Also in next few years, rumors of Arabs slowly moving towards pricing/sales of Oil in Euros.

Should be fun times

Good luck folks !

Quoting Zheny
The pare is way over bought, it should come down soon, i hope it will..
i m shorting at 1.3700 with no stop lose, if it hits 1.40 mark i m doomed....
  • #1,949
  • Jul 11, 2007 11:14am Jul 11, 2007 11:14am
Dont get flattened by the EURO trend train.. In my opinion, overbought means BULLISH!! how can you say something in this strong of an up move is going to come down right now without any real confirmation or fundamentals backing this? The dollar is getting weaker and weaker everyday.. be careful!

Remember: capital preservation is much more important than wealth generation! live to trade another day..

not saying youre wrong, just watch your back

Quoting Zheny
The pare is way over bought, it should come down soon, i hope it will..
i m shorting at 1.3700 with no stop lose, if it hits 1.40 mark i m doomed....
  • #1,950
  • Jul 11, 2007 12:53pm Jul 11, 2007 12:53pm
Quoting matador
Also in next few years, rumors of Arabs slowly moving towards pricing/sales of Oil in Euros.
This is a very important point that is often missed in short-term analysis; and it's not just the ME move (for example, Iran is nw requiring payment in non-USD form).
We are slowly moving out of single reserve/vehicle ccy system in which the USD was used as a benchmark for all ccy valuation - a system that was put in place after WWII. Sterling held the role prior to the war; as well as the gold standard - in a weaker or stronger form - which had performed that role for ages. What this means is that sooner or later countries currently accumulating US dollars via the US trade deficit will be putting these back on the market, and in the longer term lightening up on their holdings. With US money printing presses still running pretty flat out, it doesn't bode well for the $.
  • #1,951
  • Jul 12, 2007 1:51am Jul 12, 2007 1:51am
Hello friends out there...have been on a vacation.
As pips indicate, there have been an unexpected alteration in the currency dealings. Euro has a new record high.
Strategy: Start buying dips to support levels after an entry signal, till above the weekly trend reversal level.
Whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the Euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667.
Suggestion:
Hold on to your positions at these high levels this week and take these stops carefully. Rare opportunities to buy ahead.
Good luck!
Keep trading! No speculation - true Forex calculation...
  • #1,952
  • Jul 12, 2007 9:25am Jul 12, 2007 9:25am
ENTRY: 1.3775
SL: 1.3805
TP: LOCK PROFIT...
AFTER SEEING THE PAIR DEVELOPE A NEW HIGH I WAS WONDERING IF TODAY IT WILL GO AND : AT THE FRESH HIGH...OR FROM HERE ON WE WILL SEE THE DUEDOWN...



DISCIPLINE IS THE KEY TO SUCCESS!!!:nerd:
  • #1,953
  • Jul 12, 2007 9:30am Jul 12, 2007 9:30am
Quoting justineFX
Hello friends out there...have been on a vacation.
As pips indicate, there have been an unexpected alteration in the currency dealings. Euro has a new record high.
Strategy: Start buying dips to support levels after an entry signal, till above the weekly trend reversal level.
Whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the Euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3667.
Suggestion:
Hold on to your positions at these high levels this week and take these stops carefully. Rare opportunities to buy ahead.
Good luck!
Yes Sir, will do, Sir!
  • #1,954
  • Jul 12, 2007 6:41pm Jul 12, 2007 6:41pm
Quoting HalifaxCB
This is a very important point that is often missed in short-term analysis; and it's not just the ME move (for example, Iran is nw requiring payment in non-USD form).
We are slowly moving out of single reserve/vehicle ccy system in which the USD was used as a benchmark for all ccy valuation - a system that was put in place after WWII. Sterling held the role prior to the war; as well as the gold standard - in a weaker or stronger form - which had performed that role for ages. What this means is that sooner or later countries currently accumulating US dollars via the US trade deficit will be putting these back on the market, and in the longer term lightening up on their holdings. With US money printing presses still running pretty flat out, it doesn't bode well for the $.
The only question I have is:

Are all of those countries who hold US dollar reserves interested in liquidating their positions when the dollar is this weak?

I myself hold a bunch of US treasury bonds and I am not going to redeem them now when everyone is trashing the US dollar.

This whole EURUSD bull run is astonishing to say the least. I just can't understand it.

I can't even understand Trichet when he claims the EU is facing serious inflation risks to the upside when energy prices should be going down thanks to the Euro being so much stronger.

You have European prime ministers complaining about further rate hikes that could potentially bring the economy to a stall and then you have Trichet speaking as if the European economy was growing 10% per year.

In my opinion, the real winners out of this scenario will be the US. A weak dollar is allowing the American economy to avoid a steep crash and a soft landing is almost assured thanks to higher exports.

As soon as the European economy will come to a halt due to Trichet suffocating it with higher interest rates, then it'll be the Euro's turn to get weak and get the desired soft landing.

Right now, a weak dollar and a strong Euro is accomodating both economies.
  • #1,955
  • Jul 12, 2007 6:49pm Jul 12, 2007 6:49pm
Now, Euro knows how to be a lame pair.

Which pair has the guts to put XX97 and doesn't even try the doube zero?

Placing 3797 implies a moral duty of trading 3800 minimum.
  • #1,956
  • Jul 12, 2007 6:53pm Jul 12, 2007 6:53pm
Quoting cesarnc
Now, Euro knows how to be a lame pair.

Which pair has the guts to put XX97 and doesn't even try the doube zero?

Placing 3797 implies a moral duty of trading 3800 minimum.
I agree. if it does not touch 3800, its an unfinished business.
  • #1,957
  • Jul 12, 2007 6:56pm Jul 12, 2007 6:56pm
Quoting ItalianSharp

You have European prime ministers complaining about further rate hikes that could potentially bring the economy to a stall and then you have Trichet speaking as if the European economy was growing 10% per year.
Funny thing you mention 10 %, cause that's what the germany tax income
this year has risen.

The price of the eur doesn't matter, since most of the companys got their
books filled with orders till early 2009.

regards
  • #1,958
  • Jul 12, 2007 7:10pm Jul 12, 2007 7:10pm
Quoting ItalianSharp
I can't even understand Trichet when he claims the EU is facing serious inflation risks to the upside when energy prices should be going down thanks to the Euro being so much stronger.

Btw, thanks to taxes, we're almost independent from the oil-price.

regards,

tojoko
  • #1,959
  • Jul 12, 2007 10:31pm Jul 12, 2007 10:31pm
Quoting ItalianSharp
The only question I have is:

Are all of those countries who hold US dollar reserves interested in liquidating their positions when the dollar is this weak?

I myself hold a bunch of US treasury bonds and I am not going to redeem them now when everyone is trashing the US dollar.

This whole EURUSD bull run is astonishing to say the least. I just can't understand it.

I can't even understand Trichet when he claims the EU is facing serious inflation risks to the upside when energy prices should be going down thanks to the Euro being so much stronger.

You have European prime ministers complaining about further rate hikes that could potentially bring the economy to a stall and then you have Trichet speaking as if the European economy was growing 10% per year.

In my opinion, the real winners out of this scenario will be the US. A weak dollar is allowing the American economy to avoid a steep crash and a soft landing is almost assured thanks to higher exports.

As soon as the European economy will come to a halt due to Trichet suffocating it with higher interest rates, then it'll be the Euro's turn to get weak and get the desired soft landing.

Right now, a weak dollar and a strong Euro is accomodating both economies.

agree with you..
if US weak and recesion...it.s bigest problem to all countries too...
as i know, many countries hold on USD than Eur.....
and i think weakerr usd to accelerate export....

stay away hold eur too long...(till 1.3800-1.4000)...
  • #1,960
  • Jul 13, 2007 7:42am Jul 13, 2007 7:42am
1.38 broken. All it needs is to close above this level
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