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Finding the trend

  • #41
  • Jul 7, 2024 7:01am Jul 7, 2024 7:01am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Thank you I have got them in smaller groups eg all USD crosses in 1 group all GBP crossed in another etc etc may I make a suggestion IF you are trading USD Crosses HAVE the US DOLLAR Showing and trade in TANDEM {image} {image} {image}
You are a clever guy. Got your Tandem advice. Will explore it.

I have these groups also. But my brain works best with my multi WPR View. Seing all instruments in one overview and then go directly to the spots.

So I don't use the groups. But I should, because they show the overall strange and direction of each currency. Yes, I will do that from now on. Thank you.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #42
  • Jul 7, 2024 7:08am Jul 7, 2024 7:08am
Allready now we have received utmost valuable input from clever traders. More experienced traders are welcome to join.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #43
  • Jul 7, 2024 7:21am Jul 7, 2024 7:21am
Quoting RiskFighter
{quote} Hi Merka You are missing the point. So thank you, this will be a perfect issue to explain by an example. We use EURUSD as the example you chosed. DON'T start at H1. It is useless. On the first chart you see it on the Daily TF. The trend is very clear. Starting on the 27th. June. Passing -70 on 3rd. July. This is your call to follow and possibly trade the pair. Of cause allways be aware - it could be false break out. On the 4 hour chart it is very clear. Now watch the actual bar chart from the 26th. June. You have a wonderfull trend. I would...
Now I understood better your approach.
I use a similar method just using different indicators.
As @Dave mentioned above, I use indexes as well for confluence to gauge which pair to pick from the crosses against USD or JPY etc....
I've created synthetic indexes for all majors pairs (USD, JPY, CAD, CHF, GBP, NZD, AUD).

But the point of this thread is finding the trend.
One way is to find established trend on HTF and than trade lower TFs to scalp in the same direction as you explained.
The other approach is what @RickM was suggesting: (look for consolidating pairs and wait for the explosion and scalp in that direction).

The best method I know is Elliott Waves analysis where you know the trend even before it starts.
Unfortunately it's very subjective and can't be coded.

Thanks
  • #44
  • Jul 7, 2024 8:25am Jul 7, 2024 8:25am
I know I should open a topic on my own about what I'm about to propose, but since the topic is about how to find the trend I'll try to explain my idea in a few words.

I open the monthly chart and draw a horizontal line on the opening and closing. Then I move to the daily chart and based on the knowledge of the candlestick patterns, every day I see what happens at that level.

If a candle with a strong wick is formed that bounces on one of the two levels and the candle closes above, I buy; if it closes below, I sell.

If you want to put the SL put it on the opposite side of the same candle. You can add any indicator for further confirmation, but in my experience this is already enough.

Try opening a monthly chart of the last or penultimate month, mark the opening and closing and then move to the daily and observe what happened the following month.

You may be surprised by the clarity of the signals.
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  • #45
  • Jul 7, 2024 9:55am Jul 7, 2024 9:55am
Quoting flashpaul
I know I should open a topic on my own about what I'm about to propose, but since the topic is about how to find the trend I'll try to explain my idea in a few words. I open the monthly chart and draw a horizontal line on the opening and closing. Then I move to the daily chart and based on the knowledge of the candlestick patterns, every day I see what happens at that level. If a candle with a strong wick is formed that bounces on one of the two levels and the candle closes above, I buy; if it closes below, I sell. If you want to put the SL put...
Tradingview chart start since 1971 (Nixon Shock).
Monthly. Right now green candle.
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  • #46
  • Jul 7, 2024 11:27am Jul 7, 2024 11:27am
Quoting flashpaul
I know I should open a topic on my own about what I'm about to propose, but since the topic is about how to find the trend I'll try to explain my idea in a few words. I open the monthly chart and draw a horizontal line on the opening and closing. Then I move to the daily chart and based on the knowledge of the candlestick patterns, every day I see what happens at that level. If a candle with a strong wick is formed that bounces on one of the two levels and the candle closes above, I buy; if it closes below, I sell. If you want to put the SL put...
Flash
Your idea is very welcome - and interesting!!! What you do is that you guess the direction of the next trade and that is what this thread is about. I would then go to lower timeframes and scalp in the chosen direction. If you find the signal on daily, then I would enjoy scalping on H4 and H1.

Wait a minute, can you scalp on H4. Sure and I will explain if somebody does not agree.

Flash, I would like to participate if you open a new thread of your strategy.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #47
  • Edited 5:12pm Jul 7, 2024 4:37pm | Edited 5:12pm
Quoting RiskFighter
{quote} Flash La tua idea è molto gradita - e interessante!!! Quello che fai è indovinare la direzione del prossimo trade ed è di questo che tratta questo thread. Poi passerei a timeframe più bassi e farei scalping nella direzione scelta. Se trovi il segnale su daily, allora mi piacerebbe fare scalping su H4 e H1. Aspetta un minuto, puoi fare scalping su H4. Certo e spiegherò se qualcuno non è d'accordo. Flash, vorrei partecipare se apri un nuovo thread sulla tua strategia.
Dear sir, I am working hard to develop a strategy that is as simple as possible, without indicators, suitable for full-time workers, without stop losses, and which makes serious money, little or a lot.

My common thread is as follows: example MN is bullish, the last candle W1 is bullish, then D1 will also be bullish. Nothing new, I didn't invent anything. There is already some old similar topic on FF. This principle applies to all technical analysis tools and indicators. But in D1 you have to know how to seize the right moment to enter. And when is this right time? There are two possibilities: you can buy at the first daily candle of the next month which is already bullish, or you open a buy trade at a bearish candle.

Sometimes there will be more than one bearish candle and I add another purchase operation of the same value or increased with a martingale progression if the account allows me and I close everything when, rising, I reach 50% of the entire bearish tracking .

This is the basic orientation, then you can refine it. Those who have knowledge of candlestick patterns and moving average behavior (I use ema 9 and 18) can definitely improve the entry point. The strategy is not difficult, but there is risk management that must be respected.

In the following example we have a purchasing manual case. MN bullish, last W1 candle bullish and the first candle of the month still bullish. The take profit should be at least the same height as the daily candle between high and low.
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  • #48
  • Jul 7, 2024 6:43pm Jul 7, 2024 6:43pm
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Thank you I have got them in smaller groups eg all USD crosses in 1 group all GBP crossed in another etc etc may I make a suggestion IF you are trading USD Crosses HAVE the US DOLLAR Showing and trade in TANDEM {image} {image} {image}
Hi Dave

A took a look at status ordered per currency as you suggest. AUD seems to be a hit for the time being.

The advice to people (Using the best tool there is - MT4) is to have a profile for each currency like I show here.
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MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #49
  • Jul 7, 2024 6:53pm Jul 7, 2024 6:53pm
So in last week we had US Independence Day at thursday and NFP at friday. That leaves monday with a bad statistic level. I will trade my strategy but with microlots.

There are days when you should not trade. Many traders don't trade mondays. I agree, but after the long weekend I need to trade. I just be very carefull.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #50
  • Jul 7, 2024 7:04pm Jul 7, 2024 7:04pm
My MultiWPR gave me 10 possible pairs to trade this monday. This morning it added to me the AUDCHF. So here is my setup on one of my accounts. Note the buttons with the trade direction. I can with a click decide in which direction my robot should trade. And I can prevent it to trade at all. So I can be very fast reacting. Right now market is very new and I am not trading.

Sorry guys. I don't share the robot. It is very complicated to drift it and I am constantly managing the very complicated code. It has for the time being 6 strategies built in. But I can direct you into some gurus that can teach you how to programme robots. It is much easier than you think. You can make your first robot in an hour.
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MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #51
  • Jul 7, 2024 7:41pm Jul 7, 2024 7:41pm
Quoting RiskFighter
{quote} Hi Dave A took a look at status ordered per currency as you suggest. AUD seems to be a hit for the time being. The advice to people (Using the best tool there is - MT4) is to have a profile for each currency like I show here. {image} {image}
And here is a tip for you, if you make those Currency Groups.

A SIMPLE Step by Step Process - HIGH PROBABILITY TRADES (youtube.com)

But start by using my MULTIWPR setup to identify which currencies have this nice behavier.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #52
  • Jul 7, 2024 7:47pm Jul 7, 2024 7:47pm
Quoting RiskFighter
{quote} And here is a tip for you, if you make those Currency Groups. A SIMPLE Step by Step Process - HIGH PROBABILITY TRADES (youtube.com) But start by using my MULTIWPR setup to identify which currencies have this nice behavier.
See this - setting the MultiWPR to timeframe H1. USD is very week right now. Can be traded.
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MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #53
  • Jul 8, 2024 2:37am Jul 8, 2024 2:37am
Quoting RiskFighter
{quote} Hi Dave A took a look at status ordered per currency as you suggest. AUD seems to be a hit for the time being. The advice to people (Using the best tool there is - MT4) is to have a profile for each currency like I show here. {image} {image}
  • #54
  • Jul 8, 2024 6:17am Jul 8, 2024 6:17am
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  • #55
  • Jul 8, 2024 7:03am Jul 8, 2024 7:03am
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  • #56
  • Jul 8, 2024 8:38am Jul 8, 2024 8:38am
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  • #57
  • Jul 8, 2024 4:50pm Jul 8, 2024 4:50pm
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  • #58
  • Jul 8, 2024 5:34pm Jul 8, 2024 5:34pm
Quoting RiskFighter
This trend will not be a signal service, but let me show my thoughts about monday instruments. Monday is monday. You never know what will happen. Many traders never trade on mondays. And the coming monday will be the first day after NFP day, so it is extra hard to predict what will be trending and in which direction. But here is my take on it. The green pairs will have my interest. The reason is that they either 1) have been overbought for a periode and the saying is that the trend is more likely to continue than to stop - or 2) the very tip of...
So in post #21 I marked the pairs green that was the best predictions according to the MultiWRP overview. There were 10 trades - all of them long.

I have taken the prices from the Monday daily candle. This is the result. A total of 251 pips. Not a great day. But if you had traded the pairs in the Long direction, Bought at open of the day and exit at EOD, then this would be the profit.
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MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #59
  • Jul 8, 2024 5:43pm Jul 8, 2024 5:43pm
Quoting OAPDave
{image} {image}
Hi Dave

Thanks for all your charts. Did you trade them all?

I see all the Blue and Red line ups where your system signal possible trades. Very effective. I am impressed.

Your TopDown analyze did say Long. Would you have taken the short trade at the end of day?
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #60
  • Jul 9, 2024 12:43am Jul 9, 2024 12:43am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} The Question is Would you or your Robot have Taken them ? I Trade mostly the Trend But Monday and Thursday I play Walking Football so no I did not With The Range at 138 and seeing 100% of a average ADR would you not Bank something if not all Look at the chart Do you see O H L and Daily Range marked Do you think that's very useful info ps Just backing you up with your idea of Trading with the Trend Trading against the Trend is another Topic ( but yes I do at times ) ps I am in the Uk hence do not turn up for work until just before 8am l {image}...
A lot of questions - very interesting. I will check with my robot.

Your tools might be interesting for my robot or maybe a new robot.
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
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