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Finding the trend

  • #21
  • Edited 11:39pm Jul 5, 2024 11:18pm | Edited 11:39pm
This trend will not be a signal service, but let me show my thoughts about monday instruments.

Monday is monday. You never know what will happen. Many traders never trade on mondays. And the coming monday will be the first day after NFP day, so it is extra hard to predict what will be trending and in which direction. But here is my take on it. The green pairs will have my interest. The reason is that they either 1) have been overbought for a periode and the saying is that the trend is more likely to continue than to stop - or 2) the very tip of the Daily WPR curve is going right into the sky.

Some of the asian pairs I will start trading early if I can be awake, but most pairs have until 8 am ECT to confirm my prediction. I might end up trading only a few of them.

Of cause, there is never any guarantee, the market does what the market does no matter what we want it to do. And if a pair is trending over a long periode, you will find ranging days once in a while. That might be on monday.
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  • #22
  • Edited 1:27am Jul 6, 2024 1:09am | Edited 1:27am
Hi Bro,

Thank you for your thought. Oscillator or sinewave are very interesting. Could you add criteria A-B-C-D-E for the Wave, take a look from the reference line (Mean)? A for Start and E for Entry Point. Might be good for H1. Reference line should be line 50 (moving average).
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  • #23
  • Jul 6, 2024 4:12am Jul 6, 2024 4:12am
Quoting RoelsMajor
Hi Bro, Thank you for your thought. Oscillator or sinewave are very interesting. Could you add criteria A-B-C-D-E for the Wave, take a look from the reference line (Mean)? A for Start and E for Entry Point. Might be good for H1. Reference line should be line 50 (moving average). {image} {image}
Thank you. Nice picture! I have a degree in electronic engineering, so I just love sinus waves. Yes, you can call that a Mean strategy.

I cannot add those points to my WPR charts, because I twisted the parameter to 150, so the oscillation does not behave the normal way.

The purpose of this thread is to reveal the direction of next daily bar. If we can do that, then it is easy to make money by trading lower timeframes in that direction. As I see your picture, then whenever the price passes the mean, you have the Entry Point. Then the next bar will often keep that direction. If that is the case in x% of the cases, then this is a fine tool. Have you made a test for this? The chart you added is the H1. To test my idea you should shift to Daily.

So this is a very nice and valuable input to this thread.

By the way, I use the WPR tool to identify the trend. But for my trades I use mostly a 50 EMA. But I sometime do change the parameter between 20 and 80 to reveal the line that gives the best trades.

Thank you Major. Nice input!
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  • #24
  • Edited 4:42am Jul 6, 2024 4:31am | Edited 4:42am
Quoting RiskFighter
{quote} Thank you. Nice picture! I have a degree in electronic engineering, so I just love sinus waves. Yes, you can call that a Mean strategy. I cannot add those points to my WPR charts, because I twisted the parameter to 150, so the oscillation does not behave the normal way. The purpose of this thread is to reveal the direction of next daily bar. If we can do that, then it is easy to make money by trading lower timeframes in that direction. As I see your picture, then whenever the price passes the mean, you have the Entry Point. Then the next...
It has been tested. There has been a thread here for a long time. One of the many facets of PVSRA.
The same principle, similar.

https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...me-sr-analysis
https://pvsrainternationalwithtrader....com/index.php
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  • #25
  • Jul 6, 2024 4:45am Jul 6, 2024 4:45am
Quoting RoelsMajor
{quote} It has been tested. There has been a thread here for a long time. One of the many facets of PVSRA. The same principle, similar. https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...me-sr-analysis https://pvsrainternationalwithtrader....com/index.php {image}
Thank you. I have some nice activity for the weekend then.

I just looked into you thread: The Recent Only Real Deal in My Head. Are you still trading that strategy? A bit boring yes and only one trade a week does not sum up a lot. But if you are trading many pairs using a robot, then it could be some nice money.
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  • #26
  • Jul 6, 2024 4:51am Jul 6, 2024 4:51am
Quoting RiskFighter
{quote} Thank you. I have some nice activity for the weekend then. I just looked into you thread: The Recent Only Real Deal in My Head. Are you still trading that strategy? A bit boring yes and only one trade a week does not sum up a lot. But if you are trading many pairs using a robot, then it could be some nice money.
No. That was just a test a long time ago, when I first got to know forex. Because of certain reasons, it wasn't easy to apply. Now I only trade as a hobby occasionally (using PVSRA) when I have some free time.
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  • #27
  • Jul 6, 2024 2:59pm Jul 6, 2024 2:59pm
Quoting RickM
{quote} Hi RiskFighter Again you need to twist your thought process 100% The Bollinger Band indicator has been one of the tools I used to grow my stock account balance into a 7 figure amount since Covid ended. The trick is to find trending markets, you do not look for expanding Bollinger bands. YOU LOOK FOR SQUEEZES - THEN TRADE WHEN IT EXPLODES Cheers



Hey Rick been following you for a while now, would love a chance to chat as a introduction, James Yanamor on LinkedIn. Let me know if we can chat, i have background in investment capital & small business... of course a minor background in FX -- looking to be more of a gold trader like you. I like the gold news and pattern completion.

I'm moldable lets chat.
  • #28
  • Jul 6, 2024 10:49pm Jul 6, 2024 10:49pm
So many traders care about lagging indicators. Well, either indicators is based on factual data - and then lagging, or they are dreaming. I prefer lagging. Look at this chart. At any point this 30EMA was lagging. But the bounces were effective and there were loads of money to take. So what is the problem?
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  • #29
  • Jul 7, 2024 4:12am Jul 7, 2024 4:12am
hi RiskFighter, thanks for sharing. i agree with you in terms of some viewpoints, for example i believe trend is likely to continue rather than reverse. and i think in 80-90% time we should stay out of the market, only enter when there's a good opportunity, no matter it's from technical analysis or fundamentals, or astrology. because i'm not good at price action so i use some indicators help me figure out what's going on. what indicators to be used is not important, as long as they can reflect longterm, midterm or instant market moves, any kind will work, like oscillators.

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i consider my indicators like a discussion group, they conflict in most times but occasionally they reach a strong agreement. when that happens it's time to enter. another good thing is even they start fighting again soon there's no big loss, just quit and wait for next agreement.
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  • #30
  • Jul 7, 2024 4:50am Jul 7, 2024 4:50am
Quoting RiskFighter
So many traders care about lagging indicators. Well, either indicators is based on factual data - and then lagging, or they are dreaming. I prefer lagging. Look at this chart. At any point this 30EMA was lagging. But the bounces were effective and there were loads of money to take. So what is the problem? {image}
Hi
this chart is not a good example as it mostly trending.
MAs will kill you on ranging markets with lots of false signals.
That's the issue
  • #31
  • Jul 7, 2024 5:15am Jul 7, 2024 5:15am
Quoting Merka
{quote} Hi this chart is not a good example as it mostly trending. MAs will kill you on ranging markets with lots of false signals. That's the issue
I agree. That is why you need to find the trending pairs. Then all strategies will work. This is exactly what this thread is about.

I have also many confluences in my robot.
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  • #32
  • Jul 7, 2024 5:19am Jul 7, 2024 5:19am
Quoting chenxee
hi RiskFighter, thanks for sharing. i agree with you in terms of some viewpoints, for example i believe trend is likely to continue rather than reverse. and i think in 80-90% time we should stay out of the market, only enter when there's a good opportunity, no matter it's from technical analysis or fundamentals, or astrology. because i'm not good at price action so i use some indicators help me figure out what's going on. what indicators to be used is not important, as long as they can reflect longterm, midterm or instant market moves, any kind...
What a philosofic post that is . My Granny would understand it when you explain things. Great!

Interesting chart. What you say is, that when everything is BLUE, then everybody agree and you buy long - right?
MetaTrader 4 - so many advantages.
  • #33
  • Jul 7, 2024 5:23am Jul 7, 2024 5:23am
Quoting chenxee
hi RiskFighter, thanks for sharing. i agree with you in terms of some viewpoints, for example i believe trend is likely to continue rather than reverse. and i think in 80-90% time we should stay out of the market, only enter when there's a good opportunity, no matter it's from technical analysis or fundamentals, or astrology. because i'm not good at price action so i use some indicators help me figure out what's going on. what indicators to be used is not important, as long as they can reflect longterm, midterm or instant market moves, any kind...
To take your strategy into this thread - we try to find pairs that will be trending next day, so that we can have some nice scalps. So in your case it could be to find the pairs that turns blue on D1. Exactly on that point the next day is expected to be trending in all timeframes and scalping can begin. Right?
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  • #34
  • Jul 7, 2024 5:30am Jul 7, 2024 5:30am
Quoting RiskFighter
{quote} I agree. That is why you need to find the trending pairs. Then all strategies will work. This is exactly what this thread is about. I have also many confluences in my robot.
Thanks for your answer
I have put your WPR indicator on a chart with 150 setting as you mentioned but can't see properly how it will determine the trend if any exist.
Look at these 2 pairs (1 trending and 1 ranging) and please let me know how you determine which one is trending
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  • #35
  • Jul 7, 2024 5:39am Jul 7, 2024 5:39am
Quoting RiskFighter
{quote} What a philosofic post that is . My Granny would understand it when you explain things. Great! Interesting chart. What you say is, that when everything is BLUE, then everybody agree and you buy long - right?
hi RiskFighter, yes, when all indicators are bullish blue, it's a good time to consider buy long. if scalp in lower timeframes, e.g. M1-M15, i expect all indicators strongly agree bullish, must beyond "strong level line" becoz too much consolidations in LTF so no need to enter in a hurry, there are always perfect setups in another pair.
  • #36
  • Jul 7, 2024 6:09am Jul 7, 2024 6:09am
RiskFighter
Interesting Thread
My Style of
Finding a Trend ?
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  • #37
  • Jul 7, 2024 6:29am Jul 7, 2024 6:29am
Quoting Merka
{quote} Thanks for your answer I have put your WPR indicator on a chart with 150 setting as you mentioned but can't see properly how it will determine the trend if any exist. Look at these 2 pairs (1 trending and 1 ranging) and please let me know how you determine which one is trending {image} {image}
Hi Merka

You are missing the point. So thank you, this will be a perfect issue to explain by an example. We use EURUSD as the example you chosed. DON'T start at H1. It is useless.

On the first chart you see it on the Daily TF. The trend is very clear. Starting on the 27th. June. Passing -70 on 3rd. July. This is your call to follow and possibly trade the pair. Of cause allways be aware - it could be false break out.

On the 4 hour chart it is very clear.

Now watch the actual bar chart from the 26th. June. You have a wonderfull trend. I would go into that trend at the 3rd. July when -70 was passed.

This is the idea of this methode. Trying to foresee the trend and ride it - scalp it on lower TF like M15 or M5. Use the WPR on the daily - use it with all your charts in one single view and then find the pairs which is in a nice trend. It is vital that the last tip of the daily goes straight into the air or into the ground. Else take a look on pairs which are Oversold or Overbought for a long time. These pairs might be ranging but they could just as well be trending nicely.

And if a pair is trending - then it tends to continue trending. ONLY take trades with the trend. That way - if trend was false and changed direction, you will not lose money except for a possible trade you were in when the change took place.
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  • #38
  • Jul 7, 2024 6:42am Jul 7, 2024 6:42am
Quoting OAPDave
RiskFighter Interesting Thread My Style of Finding a Trend ? {image} {image} {image} {image} {image}
Hi Dave

That is perfect. Thank you. I love it.

You might use my multichart WPR setup as a shortcut to find the pairs that have your interest? Then use you methode on those pairs.
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  • #39
  • Jul 7, 2024 6:43am Jul 7, 2024 6:43am
Guys - this is working. Clever traders share their setups. And we all learn from each other.

WHat about YOU - do you have something to share????
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  • #40
  • Jul 7, 2024 6:48am Jul 7, 2024 6:48am
Quoting RiskFighter
{quote} Hi Dave That is perfect. Thank you. I love it. You might use my multichart WPR setup as a shortcut to find the pairs that have your interest? Then use you methode on those pairs.
Thank you
I have got them in smaller groups
eg
all USD crosses in 1 group
all GBP crossed in another etc etc
may I make a suggestion
IF you are trading
USD Crosses
HAVE the US DOLLAR Showing and trade in TANDEM
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