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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #541
  • Jul 10, 2007 11:50pm Jul 10, 2007 11:50pm
121 seems cheap enough for the big boys. I can hear the shorts screaming from here. Pull out now IMO.
If the recent low is taken out, I am wrong, but I can smell a lot of dumb money.
  • #542
  • Jul 11, 2007 12:08am Jul 11, 2007 12:08am
02:24USDJPY finding bids ahead of the figure. There is some talk making the rounds regarding that the buyers of the USDJPY weakness have largely been Japanese names and that once they exit for the day shortly that the risk is to the downside.

Yeah I saw a few quick bounces!... I'm sure some institutions had some orders in! Where it's gonna go from here may be decided when London comes in play..?

Quoting bodge
121 seems cheap enough for the big boys. I can hear the shorts screaming from here. Pull out now IMO.
If the recent low is taken out, I am wrong, but I can smell a lot of dumb money.
Chances favour the prepared.
  • #543
  • Jul 11, 2007 12:12am Jul 11, 2007 12:12am
I think the direction is already decided, smart money is long, but that's just my opinion. I am long even though I still think 120.15 is possible. If we make it there I'll add another long.
I don't use targets but if you want an estimation I will say 122.50. Long term, much higher IMO.
  • #544
  • Jul 11, 2007 12:23am Jul 11, 2007 12:23am
Bouncing off 121.10 area again?
If this support holds, get ready for the bulls.
  • #545
  • Jul 11, 2007 12:47am Jul 11, 2007 12:47am
Quoting bodge
Bouncing off 121.10 area again?
If this support holds, get ready for the bulls.
Long at 121.15,.. s/l 120.90,...
Get ready for the bounce,....
  • #546
  • Jul 11, 2007 12:52am Jul 11, 2007 12:52am
Quoting plicksboy
Long at 121.15,.. s/l 120.90,...
Get ready for the bounce,....
Get ready? I've been waiting 10 hours for this trade!
  • #547
  • Jul 11, 2007 1:34am Jul 11, 2007 1:34am
I'm not in trade now (haven't been in since the last drop)
So it's just my thots.. it really has to clear the H1 72% at 121.60 area for a chance to re-attack the long.

Like my last Short, it failed to break 72% and threaded on the 61.8% on the H1. The UJ has yet to break the 72% on most timeframes (m15 and above).. so I think there is still some weakness the the current short term.

My 2 cents.
Chances favour the prepared.
  • #548
  • Jul 11, 2007 1:47am Jul 11, 2007 1:47am
Quoting jasonowl
02:24USDJPY finding bids ahead of the figure. There is some talk making the rounds regarding that the buyers of the USDJPY weakness have largely been Japanese names and that once they exit for the day shortly that the risk is to the downside.


Jasonowl, were do you get this news from? My newsprovider s*cks....
  • #549
  • Jul 11, 2007 1:54am Jul 11, 2007 1:54am
Err. Here -> http://masterforex.co.uk/Html/FXStation/FXToolz.html
Click on Live Market Commentary. (Don't ask me where the real source is... I've no idea, and nope I'm not an advocate for this site. Just thought it was fun.)

Quoting Sidus
Jasonowl, were do you get this news from? My newsprovider s*cks....
Chances favour the prepared.
  • #550
  • Jul 11, 2007 1:58am Jul 11, 2007 1:58am
thx!
  • #551
  • Jul 11, 2007 2:11am Jul 11, 2007 2:11am
Quick! Quick! Up or down... who's guess...
Struggling at 61.8... touching 72...


http://img34.picoodle.com/img/img34/...7m_4af2422.jpg
Chances favour the prepared.
  • #552
  • Jul 11, 2007 3:36am Jul 11, 2007 3:36am
Yesterday's massive drop braking the solid upchannel we've been moving within for the last 4 months has scared me away from USDJPY for the time being. I sure didnt see that 150+ pips fall coming.
  • #553
  • Jul 11, 2007 4:10am Jul 11, 2007 4:10am
Quoting WTB
Yesterday's massive drop braking the solid upchannel we've been moving within for the last 4 months has scared me away from USDJPY for the time being. I sure didnt see that 150+ pips fall coming.
Guess none of us saw it.

Bravado exception, of course. "expected, a true pro", you know the B.S.
  • #554
  • Jul 11, 2007 4:45am Jul 11, 2007 4:45am
Temporary ranging by yen between 121.80 and 121?
  • #555
  • Jul 11, 2007 5:53am Jul 11, 2007 5:53am
Quoting cesarnc
Guess none of us saw it.

Bravado exception, of course. "expected, a true pro", you know the B.S.
Lot's of bollinger traders saw it, there was a pretty strong sell the night before, which never really recovered. Anyway, on it's way back up now I guess, I'm going to be looking at 122.65 as a place to close my trade if the price action holds.

Good luck.
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #556
  • Jul 11, 2007 6:00am Jul 11, 2007 6:00am
How did the Bollinger folks see it? (I'm still pretty new) Did the band just widen so much that they figured it HAD to break out? I guess I'm confused on how they could interpret it clearly.
  • #557
  • Jul 11, 2007 6:09am Jul 11, 2007 6:09am
Went in Long at 121.38 about 1.5hrs ago at the 15min 61.8 Fib (Fractal)
Now out to take a nice 50pip profit.... Hey.. I could do this all night if I have to.
Chances favour the prepared.
  • #558
  • Jul 11, 2007 6:15am Jul 11, 2007 6:15am
Sephroth,
You might want to read up on Plutonite's trading system, that is what I used to catch this. Three things - it was hitting both the upper bollinger and "Scrat" bands (read up on what this is) and also was near a Vegas fib. This was during the evening of 7/9 (EST). There was some moderate price action around that time as well, not great but enough to suggest that movement was coming. I placed a short based on this, with a tight SL at 123.70. The price went down to the second vegas fib on the other side.

I think this is an extreme example of what can happen - the setup won't always be this obvious, nor the movement this strong. I am a beginner in forex, so I also may have just been lucky. I'll let you know in about 100 or so more trades.
Disregard all prognostications.
  • #559
  • Jul 11, 2007 6:18am Jul 11, 2007 6:18am
Quoting Sephroth08
How did the Bollinger folks see it? (I'm still pretty new) Did the band just widen so much that they figured it HAD to break out? I guess I'm confused on how they could interpret it clearly.
Hit the top band on the 50 mean, strong initial movement down(entry), then the big moves we saw. It was against the trend, but still doable. For more theory, I have a thread here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=36646
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #560
  • Jul 11, 2007 7:01am Jul 11, 2007 7:01am
Similarly, I saw the move down as a CCI pattern on the 4h charts. It was beautiful, too - there isn't a much better setup then when I entered that evening. I didn't know it would be a 200 point drop, but I doubt very few, if any, people expected that dramatic a drop.

I'm currently looking at 122.10 as a major resistance level to sell short on again should it get touched.
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