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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #88,101
  • May 16, 2024 5:41am May 16, 2024 5:41am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} BOJ intervened 2 weeks ago because xxx/jpy was too high in price, and you're asking if price will go up? Why are you interested in the opposite direction of a government intervention?
Because the government did not intervene. They just put someone on a podium to spew some words. Doesn't mean much. These so called interventions have a tendency to be short lived.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #88,102
  • May 16, 2024 6:22am May 16, 2024 6:22am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Because the government did not intervene. They just put someone on a podium to spew some words. Doesn't mean much. These so called interventions have a tendency to be short lived.
It looks like they actually did intervene twice (April 29th and May 2nd), but these actual interventions also have a tendency to be short lived. However, not always that short lived , e.g. the October 2022 intervention was the beginning of a downtrend from 150+ to 128+ that lasted almost 3 months.
  • #88,103
  • May 16, 2024 6:43am May 16, 2024 6:43am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Because the government did not intervene. They just put someone on a podium to spew some words. Doesn't mean much. These so called interventions have a tendency to be short lived.
Exactly. Good opportunity to load up again as a matter of fact.
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #88,104
  • May 16, 2024 7:15am May 16, 2024 7:15am
Quoting Anotan
{quote} I'm not an economist, so I'll have to take you at your word on the points you've made. The only thing I can really say is that Tuesday price tried and failed to break above the intervention levels. I wouldn't be looking for strength on xxx/jpy. {image}
Your point of view is not wrong. I believe that the misunderstanding (or the difference in points of view) is the time frame.

That's correct, you're right, there was a reaction to the level of the intervention. In addition, the USD weakened a lot due to the data on the US economy. It's right to go short at that moment. An intraday trader would enter short and make profit. Shorting from a good resistance level touched for the first time is a good way.

The only difference is when the higher time frame (daily/weekly) is bullish, it becomes riskier and less profitable to short. In this case you risk less and earn more by going long on support levels.

I hope you caught the bearish movement and made some profit
Green pips for all
  • #88,105
  • May 16, 2024 5:29pm May 16, 2024 5:29pm
Quoting Konichiwhaat
{quote} Beautiful timing. SL to BE. Hopefully (finally) we now have two positions in play
Trying to add a third position here
Emotional Control. Process, not outcome.
  • #88,106
  • May 16, 2024 5:58pm May 16, 2024 5:58pm
Quoting Konichiwhaat
{quote} Trying to add a third position here
SL to BE. Will come back in an hour to see if it held
Emotional Control. Process, not outcome.
  • #88,107
  • May 16, 2024 9:54pm May 16, 2024 9:54pm
Quoting Konichiwhaat
{quote} SL to BE. Will come back in an hour to see if it held
BE. One last attempt for a third position here for the week. Then it will be what it will be
Emotional Control. Process, not outcome.
  • #88,108
  • May 16, 2024 10:33pm May 16, 2024 10:33pm
Important Levels

The BoJ announced that it continues its bond purchases, which caused the USDJPY pair to move against the Yen during the Asian session. After seeing the level of 153.70 earlier in the week, the pair starts the last trading day of the week at the level of 155.85.

The first intraday support level is 155.55, while the main support can be followed at the level of 154.80.

In case of possible upward movement, the main intraday resistance is at the level of 156.75.
  • #88,109
  • May 17, 2024 11:53am May 17, 2024 11:53am
Quoting mike1349
{quote} Exactly. Good opportunity to load up again as a matter of fact.

Yep.. Blew my little short out of the water, but my long term buy is still chugging with positive swaps showing. 170s look like they are coming sooner than I thought. 15M showing a lower high two days ago as well. Nas100 finally showing weakness. Boom shakalaka.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #88,110
  • May 17, 2024 11:58am May 17, 2024 11:58am
No USD news until next Thursday. So this will be all structural. The trend is your friend.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #88,111
  • May 17, 2024 2:01pm May 17, 2024 2:01pm
Does that mean I only have to go with the trend direction when there is no news?
  • #88,112
  • May 18, 2024 4:54pm May 18, 2024 4:54pm
Quoting Konichiwhaat
{quote} Well sadly we did not get a weekly close bearish candle, so at the moment it is not looking at promising as the last to bear runs. I attempted a couple of times to add to the position but obviously they were stopped out. But I have not given up hope yet. I still have the original position still open, and as long as we are trading under the imaginary trend line, or at the very worst, the 160 high, there is still hope. As always, it will be what it will be {image}
Another week has passed and amazingly the swing is hanging in there with two open positions...just!

So we have a weak weekly spinning top which has a HH and HL than last weeks bull candle, so its not looking good. Nevertheless, at least now we can draw a strict trend line and set both SLs of both positions to 156.82.

Will it hold? to be honest I am doubtful. But hey, its forex right!? Stranger things have happened
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Emotional Control. Process, not outcome.
  • #88,113
  • May 18, 2024 6:50pm May 18, 2024 6:50pm
Quoting Konichiwhaat
{quote} Another week has passed and amazingly the swing is hanging in there with two open positions...just! So we have a weak weekly spinning top which has a HH and HL than last weeks bull candle, so its not looking good. Nevertheless, at least now we can draw a strict trend line and set both SLs of both positions to 156.82. Will it hold? to be honest I am doubtful. But hey, its forex right!? Stranger things have happened {image}
Hi Kon, nice t/a mate, thanks. My chart shows a close slightly below that of last weeks Bullish bar. Not much in it tho', Don't have a position atm, I'll wait for the London open. Hope it works out for you. Cheers
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  • #88,114
  • May 18, 2024 7:27pm May 18, 2024 7:27pm
Quoting mallee
{quote} Hi Kon, nice t/a mate, thanks. My chart shows a close slightly below that of last weeks Bullish bar. Not much in it tho', Don't have a position atm, I'll wait for the London open. Hope it works out for you. Cheers {image}
Thanks Mallee Yeah, to be honest, I'm not a long term swing trader. It's just something I'm playing with at the moment to go into my bag of trading skills and to maybe give me less screen time in the future
Emotional Control. Process, not outcome.
  • #88,115
  • May 18, 2024 10:42pm May 18, 2024 10:42pm
uj is close to forming a pattern at 156.06 after which I can slide down to 150.6x or the pattern may have already started. I dont take Friday's market after Europe exits too seriously. it is a stop loss hitting market after Europe exits. I think uj will gap down in asian session. there will come a day before may expiry where uj slides below 150
  • #88,116
  • May 19, 2024 3:22am May 19, 2024 3:22am
gbpjpy
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  • #88,117
  • May 19, 2024 1:15pm May 19, 2024 1:15pm
USDJPY price action on the H4 time frame went sideways at the 155.00 horizontal resistance area after a bullish retest. Technically, we may still see a northward move for liquidity grab at an intraday area of value such as the market imbalance beyond the 156.500 area on the H4 time frame.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #88,118
  • May 20, 2024 5:23am May 20, 2024 5:23am
Quoting Steven19
Does that mean I only have to go with the trend direction when there is no news?
For me.. I see UJ being in silent thief mode. That is what I call it when it slowly creeps in a direction with small pull backs trapping counter trenders. Also we tested the 160 mark with a nice wick then formed a nice ABC to the downside. This in a trend usually marks price consolidating for more of a move in the initial direction. I could be wrong, but what I see is price retesting that 160 level. Confluence is the current retracement hitting the 38 degree mark and the 161 being right where that 160 hit. Trade small until you get confirmation or dont trade at all. A .01 trade pointed in the right direction will make you good money, and allow you to get out with minimal loss if it is the wrong one. Greed is the enemy and friend to the rabbit, where patience is a better friend to profits and the turtle.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #88,119
  • May 22, 2024 4:12am May 22, 2024 4:12am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} For me.. I see UJ being in silent thief mode. That is what I call it when it slowly creeps in a direction with small pull backs trapping counter trenders. Also we tested the 160 mark with a nice wick then formed a nice ABC to the downside. This in a trend usually marks price consolidating for more of a move in the initial direction. I could be wrong, but what I see is price retesting that 160 level. Confluence is the current retracement hitting the 38 degree mark and the 161 being right where that 160 hit. Trade small until you get confirmation...
sorry, what do you mean by "38 degree "?
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #88,120
  • May 22, 2024 5:19am May 22, 2024 5:19am
Quoting mike1349
{quote} sorry, what do you mean by "38 degree "?
Fibonacci levels.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
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