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  • #196,841
  • May 14, 2024 4:01pm May 14, 2024 4:01pm
Quoting Mitiblotch
{quote} Yeah, sometimes people think sentiment analysis is useless but it's not. In fact, it informed all my buys since last week. Price will go down but only after those who lost start chasing buys.
I'm sure there where plenty chasing as much as we dont like to think so...
If 95% Of Traders Fail, Then Why Are You Doing The Same Thing They Are.
  • #196,842
  • May 14, 2024 4:03pm May 14, 2024 4:03pm
EURUSD -- 15/05/2024
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  • #196,843
  • May 14, 2024 9:06pm May 14, 2024 9:06pm
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1.0850 should be FVG target. Until price is above daily opening lvl bulls have advantage. My daily flip lvl 1.08195.
  • #196,844
  • May 14, 2024 10:36pm May 14, 2024 10:36pm
EUR/USD found support at 1.0813 after the opening at Asia stretching to rise above the weekly R2 resistance level and the weekly downward trendline at 1.0830. If it rises above next resistance level/s to watch are 1.0865 and 1.0885. Below 1.0800 - 1.0795 could possibly support more in a drop but a failure to do so will result to a return at 1.0785 or even beat the yesterday's low at 1.0766.

Daily volatility (range) 40 pips

Option expiries for Wednesday: 1.0750 (EU917.5m) source: financialjuice.com

Significant news - US Retail Sales, US CPI

1 hour
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Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #196,845
  • May 14, 2024 10:46pm May 14, 2024 10:46pm
Forex is a zero sum game as long as retail traders are selling, the price will be pushed up. Once they stop selling it and change their position to buy then it will be dumped. But it still looks like most of the retail traders are short so chances of continuation to the upside is still high. Besides stop looking at fundamentals because if you look at the data, most of the time you will be miss leaded and also in the long run you will mostly lose. Price action is the king and by looking at it closely, you can clearly see where it is going provided that you mind is not fogged by fundamentals.
  • #196,846
  • May 14, 2024 10:47pm May 14, 2024 10:47pm
Quoting Js3mwtRc
EUR/USD found support at 1.0813 after the opening at Asia stretching to rise above the weekly R2 resistance level and the weekly downward trendline at 1.0830. If it rises above next resistance level/s to watch are 1.0865 and 1.0885. Below 1.0800 - 1.0795 could possibly support more in a drop but a failure to do so will result to a return at 1.0785 or even beat the yesterday's low at 1.0766. Daily volatility (range) 40 pips Option expiries for Wednesday: 1.0750 (EU917.5m) source: financialjuice.com Significant news - US Retail Sales, US CPI 1 hour...
It is interesting to know if bull can climb above 0830!
Patience, Emotion Control and Discipline.
  • #196,847
  • May 14, 2024 11:28pm May 14, 2024 11:28pm
Quoting johncen
{quote} It is interesting to know if bull can climb above 0830!
As we were telling yesterday it will move up and here we are now, I expect one more push up but will it be sustainable!
Looking for profitable short term trades ...|
  • #196,848
  • May 15, 2024 12:26am May 15, 2024 12:26am
Hello and good morning everyone.

Keep in mind that we are bearish on the main trend and these small pullbacks MAY be a selling opportunity.

If I see a confirmation structure at 1.0811, I may short sell before the news.

If we break above 1.0886, then I close my trades with SL and rebuild my game plan, but now I am focusing on the main trend, the downtrend and its structures.

Be safe!
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Swing Trader
  • #196,849
  • May 15, 2024 12:58am May 15, 2024 12:58am
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https://www.forexlive.com/Orders
  • #196,850
  • May 15, 2024 2:14am May 15, 2024 2:14am
I love this day where news will be raining inside US session... Lovely!

Happy trading day to all
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #196,851
  • May 15, 2024 2:39am May 15, 2024 2:39am
Forex is all about patience and discipline. If this was not the case we would not have 95% traders losing money.
  • #196,852
  • May 15, 2024 3:04am May 15, 2024 3:04am
I dont know how accurate the Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast is but they have the CPI y/y at 3.5% v 3.4% est.
https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicat...ion-nowcasting
I would expect EU to drop a bit if this is accurate but we expected that yesterday with the hotter than estimated PPI.
A staggering 83.8% of retail are short EU according to FX blue and some may suspect many of these shorts are being deliberately trapped for now.
It's a big game.
  • #196,853
  • May 15, 2024 3:17am May 15, 2024 3:17am
Based on 4H.
I shorted the euro.
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Swing Trader
  • #196,854
  • May 15, 2024 3:26am May 15, 2024 3:26am
Good Morning/noon dear EurUsd-Only friends !

Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
I love this day where news will be raining inside US session... Lovely! Happy trading day to all
Thank you greatly dear Ata, and to you as well!

Apologies in advance for another crazy post, another post made with my sometimes too free-sharing spirit, but always with good intentions. Most times I love to share because I love that you share with me. But sometimes also I have my reasons , and I am just so blessed to have a connection with some of you because of it all. Thank you all

Well, these are the times...

It's time for me to gradually decrease my buying like a good lad
Because of this determinant level, which also ferociously resisted last time
Because of the underlying price dynamics I talked about briefly in too many posts(see chart)
Because we are already half way through the quarter and, as I've shared before, the later we are in a given period (day/week/month/quarter/year), the more gain preservation/loss limitation plays a role in my managing

Here on W Chart is a small fraction of what I shared about my M.Price at this Godzilla scale, and also Indiana Jones figuring out a way to take the Holy Grail without triggering a deadly trap(trying to exploit the flatness, the symmetry of the said Range (R.Heaven):
Quoting mtako
..Ranging Heaven/seesaw on a year.4 scale And Price now coming back from under, Weeks of 2023.1.08 2023.3.19 2023.6.11 2023.11.12..
Quoting mtako
..In the spirit of.. the +-70 weeks +-400 Ranging Heaven, let's finally get back on the road to meet with the upper end, again..Price is now coming with force from the lows..if price simply continues doing what it has been doing, next stop, is the Middle, 0850..
Quoting mtako
..Dec 13, which coincidentally also had same news day as today, and also was catapulted from same price..
Quoting mtako
..At this moment, I do take more TPs than usual because of how much bulls have been stalling (last rejection of the middle at the start of April especially)..probable fireworks that would give a return from the lows to the middle of the greatest move(1270s-0440s) of the last 75 weeks of flat/choppy/sideways..
We see many reasons why this moment right here right now is my most crucial moment of the day, week, month & quarter...

Enough with the silliness and ramblings of an old man

That said,

It is with all my heart and kindness that I wish for each and everyone of you an

Amazing middle of the week of middle of the month of middle of the Quarter!!!



P.S
Riddle me this
Riddle me that
How can one profit
With something like that:

yes it's that time again, happily

Riddle/Intraday-Filter update(goes exceptionally well with an espresso and dark chocolate):
Quoting mtako
>0645 Buy <0640 Sell..
Quoting mtako
>0692 Buy <0687 Sell..
Quoting mtako
>0728 Buy <0723 Sell..
Quoting mtako
>0720 Buy <0715 Sell..
Quoting mtako
>0700 Buy <0695 Sell..
Quoting mtako
..>0685 Buy <0680 Sell..
Quoting mtako
>0713 Buy <0708 Sell..
Quoting mtako
...Price now 0729 >0730 Buy <0725 Sell
Quoting mtako
..Price now 0790 >0782 Buy <0777 Sell...
Quoting mtako
...Price now 0760 >0760 Buy <0755 Sell...
Quoting mtako
.. Price now 0788 >0790 Buy <0785 Sell
Quoting mtako
..Price now 0751 >0753 Buy <0748 Sell..
Quoting mtako
..Price now 0739..>0740 Buy <0735 Sell..
Quoting mtako
..Price now 07515..>0755 Buy <0750 Sell...
Quoting mtako
..Price now 07435.. >0744 Buy <0739 Sell ..
Quoting mtako
..Price now 0764.. >0758 Buy <0753 Sell ...
Quoting mtako
Price now 07835.. >0785 Buy <0780 Sell
Quoting mtako
.. Price now 0778 >0776 Buy <0771 Sell
Quoting mtako
..Price now 0764 >0765 Buy <0761 Sell
Quoting mtako
..Price now 0771 >0772 Buy <0767..
Quoting mtako
..Price now 0785 >0782 Buy <0777 Sell..
Quoting mtako
...Price now 0815 >0805 Buy <0800 Sell

Price now 0835
>0825 Buy
<0820 Sell
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If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #196,855
  • May 15, 2024 3:47am May 15, 2024 3:47am
I would sell @0849
If fails then @0875 when the wave is in overbought
  • #196,856
  • May 15, 2024 3:48am May 15, 2024 3:48am
Quoting mustafayucel
Based on 4H. I shorted the euro. {image}
am I correct to assume that you are operating with a 30 pip SL?
Don't follow my trades. Challenge my Analysis!
  • #196,857
  • May 15, 2024 3:49am May 15, 2024 3:49am
Quoting sanmiguell
I would sell @0849 If fails then @0875 when the wave is in overbought
the start of a 800pip fall? I would love that very much!!
Don't follow my trades. Challenge my Analysis!
  • #196,858
  • May 15, 2024 4:01am May 15, 2024 4:01am
Quoting Brainafk
{quote} the start of a 800pip fall? I would love that very much!!
who knows…for now I just watch @0790 area to see what to do
  • #196,859
  • May 15, 2024 4:06am May 15, 2024 4:06am
Quoting Niffler2024
{quote} Weekly 1.082xx to 1.084xx This is your opportunity to go Long or Short 3rd Trendline Touch on the Weekly chart (should) technically hold for a Short setup with tight stops above the 61.8% retrace. {image}

As we hit the 61.8% of the move 1.082xx to 1.084xx is crucial for bears.

As a reminder....... Look left on your Weekly Chart....... Impulsive (fast) DOWN Move....followed by Corrective (slow) UP Move.

Classic Price Action 101.

It does not mean that It cannot go any higher but the odds are in favour of a resumption of downtrend as we hit the high of the 61.8% or higher...

Play Safe, Play Smart....
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My Charts / Ideas Do Not Constitute Any Advice. Always Do Your Own Research
  • #196,860
  • May 15, 2024 4:13am May 15, 2024 4:13am
Hello All,

I shared a similar graph on Sunday about my weekly plan. Price has come to the level where I am comfortable start getting shorts. Anything above 8300 is good for me. Green rectangle is a weekly FVG that was respected twice before broken, we reversed it and going to see if we respect it from this side. Inside of that FVG we have our daily FVG which is the red rectangle. We are also at the descending trend line but it is not that important we can easily break above it with the data coming in today. I am more concerned about where the daily bar will close and this Friday where the weekly bar will close.

I will get into a very small short position probably 30 mins before the news just in case data shoots us in my direction. If we go up, I will check how different the data is from the expectations, if it is not too much I will add once the price action cools down. I will decide whether the trade is still valid or not according where it closes tonight.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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