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  • #196,821
  • May 14, 2024 12:00pm May 14, 2024 12:00pm
My View.
1.08217 is a strong resistance IMO.
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Contrarian
  • #196,822
  • May 14, 2024 12:04pm May 14, 2024 12:04pm
Quoting Hoya
I confirm it was a very strange day I don't know if you feel the same sentiment from 16-17 april is very hard to follow normal trading rules stay safe
I've learned nothing is normal in trading but when things are running normal ( never last too long) it deff is much easier to get some trades on your side.
If 95% Of Traders Fail, Then Why Are You Doing The Same Thing They Are.
  • #196,823
  • May 14, 2024 12:04pm May 14, 2024 12:04pm
Quoting chacho.fx
I'm pissed off. Data is massively hot and they managed to talk the dollar down? This was massive manipulation, and yes it looked like a bullish breakout, but how is it possible? The market sees the data and manages to price in rate cuts? How does the dollar fall like that? PPI is always so garbage for PA. Tomorrow CPI, I'm short for. 200 pips.
Need to understand price action. Though fundamentals are important to gauge the future of price movement. Robber bankers use news to hunt for stop loss and pending orders and then reverse market. the ppi was an excuse to stop hunt on both sides. Same will happen tomorrow. It's all about liquidity. tons of ppl went long when a breakout happened and put their sl's just below the breakout and bankers used the news to take out all of them.
  • #196,824
  • May 14, 2024 12:10pm May 14, 2024 12:10pm
Quoting Polimini
{quote} inflation is still up in the US, everything is already priced in and the news changed nothing. The pair continued what it was doing before, the spike down was normal shenanigans don't mistake short term trend with the longer trend, you wanted a quick profit in daytrading considering fundamentals that will not change things in a couple of hours. The pair still seems to go down, and this is the retracement... or not, we are at a key level we will have our answer soon my 2 cents
You're 100% right. For now I have TP at 1.079 which should be a decent bounce back area. I can't say how deep we will go. I am not looking at 1.04 however lol. Taking it step by step, since things have been a little unpredictable. My top resistance is set at 1.083 currently but 1.0822-108525 have held pretty good, but who knows.One thing I do know for certain is that we are in a major supply/price point area. Like you said we'll have our answer soon enough However I did the ride the bull from 1.06-1.08 - tbh I'm just ready for a bear ride
If 95% Of Traders Fail, Then Why Are You Doing The Same Thing They Are.
  • #196,825
  • May 14, 2024 12:11pm May 14, 2024 12:11pm
Quoting vinesh1
{quote} Need to understand price action. Though fundamentals are important to gauge the future of price movement. Robber bankers use news to hunt for stop loss and pending orders and then reverse market. the ppi was an excuse to stop hunt on both sides. Same will happen tomorrow. It's all about liquidity. tons of ppl went long when a breakout happened and put their sl's just below the breakout and bankers used the news to take out all of them.
Perfectly said
If 95% Of Traders Fail, Then Why Are You Doing The Same Thing They Are.
  • #196,826
  • May 14, 2024 1:02pm May 14, 2024 1:02pm
Had a nice little trade yesterday that lasted into the wee hours of this morning. Short from 0795. Price moved very sluggish for hours but eventually got me where I needed to be, and I got lucky too. I had an alert set at 0777 or so and at 4am it woke me up and I was able to close the trade for a near 1:2. Not the best RR but not the worst. I was initially targeting the mid 0760's, and it did get close during PPI manipulation, but I'm okay that I closed early.

Here's a screen shot of the trade showing the executions. I am now trading directly off TradingView, which is super convenient and fantastic!
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  • #196,827
  • May 14, 2024 1:16pm May 14, 2024 1:16pm
Looks like they going to just keep walking it for up. Guess I got to cut for a loss. Some times your just a loser for the day. Is what it is. Tomorrow is another day but not sure even if numbers come in and are in favor for the USD to recover if it even matters. Guess we will see.
  • #196,828
  • May 14, 2024 1:32pm May 14, 2024 1:32pm
i have this two red area for short position. after PA


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  • #196,829
  • May 14, 2024 1:35pm May 14, 2024 1:35pm
Quoting vinesh1
{quote} Need to understand price action. Though fundamentals are important to gauge the future of price movement. Robber bankers use news to hunt for stop loss and pending orders and then reverse market. the ppi was an excuse to stop hunt on both sides. Same will happen tomorrow. It's all about liquidity. tons of ppl went long when a breakout happened and put their sl's just below the breakout and bankers used the news to take out all of them.
well said the only way if you want to hold positions in this market conditions during news is to have a proper lots management that can hold a bit larger stop loss
Hoya_Chief Return Today: na
  • #196,830
  • May 14, 2024 1:37pm May 14, 2024 1:37pm
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"Exchange of hands"
  • #196,831
  • May 14, 2024 1:47pm May 14, 2024 1:47pm
I will short this IF price touches 1.08285... OR IF H1 candles close below 1.0816... No rush!
Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #196,832
  • May 14, 2024 2:00pm May 14, 2024 2:00pm
Quoting Ata-Turkoglu
I will short this IF price touches 1.08285... OR IF H1 candles close below 1.0816... No rush!
TRADE WARS
EPISODE 3
REVENGE OF THE BEARS
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  • #196,833
  • May 14, 2024 2:07pm May 14, 2024 2:07pm
So we are to say that the main reason why Euro went up was purely technical? Most options shouldve expired out of the money. I honestly think this was just big bank fucking retail. I see no situation where an inflationary US will be weaker than a slow Europe in the longer term. I had my trades running in profit for days, I took a little profit but then got stopped out with that weird news candle that went down then up. I only lost profit off, its annoying, but still dont understand why it happened.
  • #196,834
  • May 14, 2024 2:37pm May 14, 2024 2:37pm
Just a thought:
81.6% of retail are short EUR/USD (source FX Blue).
You could be forgiven for thinking that rampant collusion between the powerful participants prevented this pair from dropping today.
Data suggested it should have fallen sharply, but no.
It's a zero-sum game and the powers that be were never going to allow 81.6% of retail to extract profit from their game.
Just a theory.
It's a big game.
  • #196,835
  • May 14, 2024 2:40pm May 14, 2024 2:40pm
Quoting chacho.fx
So we are to say that the main reason why Euro went up was purely technical? Most options shouldve expired out of the money. I honestly think this was just big bank fucking retail. I see no situation where an inflationary US will be weaker than a slow Europe in the longer term. I had my trades running in profit for days, I took a little profit but then got stopped out with that weird news candle that went down then up. I only lost profit off, its annoying, but still dont understand why it happened.
it's called stop hunt. They wiped out anyone who took a long or short after a breakout. Thats what typicall news is used for.its good to close out trades before news or have a wide sl possible.
  • #196,836
  • May 14, 2024 2:46pm May 14, 2024 2:46pm
Quoting funzodundee
Just a thought: 81.6% of retail are short EUR/USD (source FX Blue). You could be forgiven for thinking that rampant collusion between the powerful participants prevented this pair from dropping today. Data suggested it should have fallen sharply, but no. It's a zero-sum game and the powers that be were never going to allow 81.6% of retail to extract profit from their game. Just a theory.
Yeah, sometimes people think sentiment analysis is useless but it's not. In fact, it informed all my buys since last week. Price will go down but only after those who lost start chasing buys.
  • #196,837
  • May 14, 2024 2:50pm May 14, 2024 2:50pm
Reposting my H4 chart from last week as a technical story teller:

  1. Candles never opened below my GREEN 39 wma line, only a mild piercing.
  2. Often stop hunt occurs before reversal and we were aware that a stop hunt operation might happen around ~1.0816!
  3. Before all this happened, I also noticed a fresh breakout from ellipse showing that bull power is still intact.
  4. That said, from this moment on forward, we can finally see early signs of divergence forming on MACD.
  5. On a side note: if bears react weak and slow, this can go to 1.0925 levels! So we must stay alert.

I hope this can shed some light.

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Focus only on what truly matters!
  • #196,838
  • May 14, 2024 3:02pm May 14, 2024 3:02pm
I personally have not felt any easement in the inflation here in the US. In fact its gotten worse these last few months. So yea I don't buy the data saying it's getting better here or even under control. Daddy powel can keep telling his stories lol.
  • #196,839
  • May 14, 2024 3:38pm May 14, 2024 3:38pm
Quoting SmallGains
I personally have not felt any easement in the inflation here in the US. In fact its gotten worse these last few months. So yea I don't buy the data saying it's getting better here or even under control. Daddy powel can keep telling his stories lol.
Maybe they just want to fuck trump and leave him with a decimated economy. No way Biden winning another. He doesn't see the stag or the -flation? This is insane, treason. Needs a new pair of glasses him. Their revisions is what fucked me today after some post analysis. Also a wider stop was needed to handle news, and some tps at key levels which I didnt have. I hope for gods sake tomorrow comes in hot and it reacts the way it should.
  • #196,840
  • Edited 4:31pm May 14, 2024 3:59pm | Edited 4:31pm
Quoting chacho.fx
So we are to say that the main reason why Euro went up was purely technical? Most options shouldve expired out of the money. I honestly think this was just big bank fucking retail. I see no situation where an inflationary US will be weaker than a slow Europe in the longer term. I had my trades running in profit for days, I took a little profit but then got stopped out with that weird news candle that went down then up. I only lost profit off, its annoying, but still dont understand why it happened.
There's no reason why it happened bro, we are at the mercy of everything that occurs & today proved that. Yes most times Red folders can cause currency to drop/gain, but only if they want/allow it. Today was one of the days where they did not for whatever reason. Trust me I closed my longs expecting the data that came. It actually came better than I expected. We just have to work on seeing what the next move is. BTW I have seen a few of your post & also use your analyses when looking at my own Not here going against you lol just also on the same boat as many today since it was a huge fake out, luckily I didn't make a move until 1.082 & as I said earlier I'll just let that run its course.
If 95% Of Traders Fail, Then Why Are You Doing The Same Thing They Are.
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