USD/JPY Discussion

My analysis of the USDJPY 7. May.2024

Yes, and why I have been buying. It's a good quality trend for many years now, and, as my shares attest, it has been serving me quite well

Cheers Anotan !

BE on the second attempt. We have now moved to the high of April 17th. Will try again here

SL hit. Green hourly candles continue to print. I was too hasty. Chill. Wait

A slight stall here, but between my marked levels. Will try a sell here

Edit.. Wave 3 moved to All time Low.

I have seen more than a few of you claim "ALL TIME HIGHS" as we approached the current highs. In lieu of that, I would like to introduce you to the FULL history of USD/JPY.


Now, with that said, let's explore possible areas of S/R. We all know that support becomes resistance etc etc right? So.. Where do we see Support above us? 174.


Ok.. Let's add some fancy lines.. Because let's face it. No one follows a naked chart except the professionals right?

I like to trade waves 3 and 5. Why? Because I feel them to be the easiest to identify. This is done because Waves 2 and 4 are identified by price jumping the trend line. Wave 2 Identified here in the Purpleish line. This would mean that Wave 3 is complete, and that we are currently in Wave 4.
Wave 4.



Now.. what are the Elliot wave rules for Wave 4? Wave 4 shall NOT enter into Wave 1's territory correct? That would mean that Wave 4 has room to the upside to where? OH shit.. 174 again!
I will be the first to say that I find this scary. Why? Well because if these are right my Dollar will at some point be trash against the Yen. By then though we will all be on Bitcoin anyway right? Wave 5 being a 161 catcher.




One step at a time though.
Weekly chart with Fib extension off the bottom (Wave 3). Making us in Wave 4 which most call an ABC, or in the case of an extended flat WXY WXYZ. I personally don't get into the minutia because I like to go outside and play in the sun. But here we have it. Notice we are restesting the 100 percent extension. If it fails we can relax for a bit as it continues sideways, but It has already retested the highs, and if you have followed my posts... Remember I pointed out the nice CUP AND HANDLE here.


So.. Let's us use Cup and handle rules.
Cup and Handle rules dictate that price will extend beyond the rim to the tune of 100% of the Cup. So.. Let's use a rectangle to measure the cup... Stack it on top of the cup and...



Holy shit! 174.

Shorter term... 1Hr

Continuation patterns
A bullish continuation is usually represented by price consolidating in an ABC pattern. This can be measured by using a Fib Extension and usually ends at the 100 percent area unless the news that made it consolidate is of a volatile nature in which case 161 and 200 can see attention.



We have hit that 100 percent to the downside, and I think we can all agree. No volatile news has happened.

With that said.. This move up has had no discernable retracements, and if don't see retracements, then you are probably IN the retracement. So if that is correct and this move up is a retracement it lends to the credibility that we are in a sideways movement. If true 156.4 and 152.2 are my respective brackets. Watching 156.4 for signs of reversal. If they present themselves a trip to 152.2 is likely in my opinion. FOMC's unchanged status continuing I see it more likely we bracket. 174 will come when FOMC puts in the first rate hike. The one that IMO will briefly "break the market".

But let's remain technical. No retracement = IN retracement. If 156 fails price will return to where it started the journey to 156 which is 152. If however we get a higher low before 156, it is highly likely we blow through it. A lower high, or higher low right before an area of support presents a high probability that level will get taken out. Think of it as an army carrying a battering ram. If they carry it from Castle one to Castle to without stopping to rest, when they hit the castle doors they will be too tired to break it down correct? BUT if they carry the battering ram , pause to rest 1 Mile away from the Castle doors, when they hit the doors in the morning... boom.

The castle gate is at 156.3. We need a higher low below that level represented here in red to give us the energy to break through it. No Lowe high.. no break through. represented by the blue line here taking us back to the bottom of the bracket

Still no break of trend....

Increasing possibility of us rejecting off of 156.3 area. Held these longs long enough (positive swap). I think I will TP them and come back in at the bottom again if I don't sell it on a retest on the lower time frames..

Yen seems stable around these levels following recent intervention efforts by Japanese authorities. There will be a temporary relief but due to interest rate diffs, volatility most likely remain for a while. Government official statements signaled potential weakening against dollar so I'll most probably go in this direction in my trades.

Still no retracement to the downside...

the usd/jpy rebound is very shallow and without energy
155.65 is a good place to enter a short position
maybe we'll see today after the triple swap

That was a nice dip. In and out quickly... Waiting for a drop again.

Any idea who the fuck is buying?

Me

You're bad man. You're very bad man

In short term, I think there will be some resistance at the 156.000 level, I don't think BOJ will allow the Yen hits that level. The low liquidity in all JPY pairs is a solid proof for my statement.

Tp Incoming.
No retracements of any significance, and we just showed some signs of possible exhaustion by breaking the line. Just in time for US to have some news. News may spike us up to the resistance to reel in FOMO Bulls before turning back south.

Any lower high under 154 I will regard as a spring to push us through the support below.

Option 2. News pushes us down initially then turns and slingshots us through the resistance above. Either way. watch for the reaction to the resistance above. If we wick right on it. Bearish. Wick above it onward and upward.

But either way.. time to trim.

Us crazy Yanks! lol.