- #88,024
- May 3, 2024 9:32am May 3, 2024 9:32am
- Joined Aug 2016 | Status: Trader | 10,376 Posts
As said................. No greedy......... cashed at 152 and reversed to long , as shown.....BIG.
- #88,025
- May 3, 2024 10:29am May 3, 2024 10:29am
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,021 Posts
tomorrow is holiday injapan and also we have NFP in USA !!! ready for.....
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
- #88,026
- May 3, 2024 7:09pm May 3, 2024 7:09pm
- Joined Dec 2019 | Status: Going with the flow | 2,032 Posts
Good morning, and happy golden week to all my fellow traders in Japan! I have decided to post a few charts here because I am just so amazed at how many people keep trying to short USDJPY in the "chance" that they may catch some kind of intervention move, in particular the gamblers in the "Cable Update (GBPUSD)" thread. The sad thing also is that I believe that if they were lucky enough to go short the moment any kind of intervention happened (by the way, that's an absurd way to trade long tern anyway), they would only stay in the move for a few...
So what is next?... I wait for a potential pull back.
The first chart shows the last 2 times we got a good bear run. Look how there was a pull back into the first weekly bearish close (marked with a small pupil line). This is what we would like to see. Note how the 100 EMA marks the underlying larger up trend and we are yet to break it. So how do I try to spot a pullback entry?
The second chart shows an hourly chart going back 3 weeks. I have marked some specific high and low data points. I will be watching this chart to try and spot a potential stall in price, and some kind of "roll over" action. I already have one position about 470 pips in profit where I entered on the first pull back last week, so I have a little bit of cushion to play with.
And the last chart is just for fun... I am not a FIB trader, but I thought It might be quite nice for some other traders to see. Also, I guess there is no harm in seeing what the FIB traders are seeing too, but I am pretty sure the BOJ is not using FIBS! Like I say, just a bit of visual fun.
LASTLY...
I am ONLY trying to catch a potential DOWN MOVE. I am not trying to flip-flop short, long, short etc. This plan is purely to catch a potential long term down move. So anyone who wishes to partake, please be aware that I am personally willing to have all gains go back to zero should the trend change back to bullish. This is an attempt at a long term swing trade. It is not a day trade plan. If I can catch it, I will explain next week my plan to trail it.
Ignore the P&L, focus on the craft of nice entries, and lets see how we go.
Best of luck!
Emotional Control. Process, not outcome.
- #88,028
- May 5, 2024 1:09am May 5, 2024 1:09am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,413 Posts
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
- #88,029
- May 5, 2024 2:13pm May 5, 2024 2:13pm
- Joined Dec 2015 | Status: Trader | 8,751 Posts
USDJPY price action on the daily time frame took on a bearish mode for much of last week. However, the bearish momentum decreased as bulls resisted a breakdown of the 151.900 area, which was a long-term horizontal resistance until turned support on April 15. Technically, we may still see a bullish pullback before a further southward drive.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
KP
Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
- #88,030
- May 5, 2024 3:48pm May 5, 2024 3:48pm
- Joined Nov 2018 | Status: Trader | 4,643 Posts
ex nihilo
- #88,031
- May 5, 2024 4:05pm May 5, 2024 4:05pm
- Joined Sep 2020 | Status: Trader | 8,702 Posts
Maybe back to 158.00 area {image}
Or perhaps this is THE year of a historical reversal or never seen since 2021 consolidation
?
So many bears along with BOJ are perhaps wasting their breath, again, by screaming at us +year bulls :
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
- #88,032
- May 6, 2024 8:35am May 6, 2024 8:35am
- Joined Jan 2015 | Status: Trader | 1,460 Posts
{quote}for this 12 year long uptrend to continue, it must next make another new high, so >160. Or perhaps this is THE year of a historical reversal or never seen since 2021 consolidation
Have to admit though, other than last week, it's been pretty hard lose money going long on xxx/jpy.
- #88,034
- May 6, 2024 9:54pm May 6, 2024 9:54pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,021 Posts
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
- #88,035
- May 6, 2024 10:21pm May 6, 2024 10:21pm
- Joined Dec 2019 | Status: Going with the flow | 2,032 Posts
{quote} OK, here we are, the long awaited mega bearish weekly close, woohoo! So what is next?... I wait for a potential pull back. The first chart shows the last 2 times we got a good bear run. Look how there was a pull back into the first weekly bearish close (marked with a small pupil line). This is what we would like to see. Note how the 100 EMA marks the underlying larger up trend and we are yet to break it. So how do I try to spot a pullback entry? The second chart shows an hourly chart going back 3 weeks. I have marked some specific high and...
Emotional Control. Process, not outcome.
- #88,037
- May 6, 2024 10:40pm May 6, 2024 10:40pm
- Joined Oct 2020 | Status: couldn't give a flying duck | 7,373 Posts
I've been buying again. Doing OK, exiting too soon. {image}
i posted usd/jpy yesterday and its moved quite nicely. mega profits on it
{quote} nice trade
- #88,039
- May 7, 2024 1:58am May 7, 2024 1:58am
- Joined Dec 2019 | Status: Going with the flow | 2,032 Posts
{quote} A nice fast run up this morning, and now a potential stalling on the 5 min. I like the level (deeper would be better), I also like the potential trend line too. So happy to add to my position here
Emotional Control. Process, not outcome.
- #88,040
- May 7, 2024 2:57am May 7, 2024 2:57am
- Joined Aug 2016 | Status: Trader | 10,376 Posts
Took my prfts on longs , as shown................