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Igrok Method. Q's & A's. Comments, thoughts and ideas

  • #461
  • Jul 3, 2007 9:25pm Jul 3, 2007 9:25pm
Quoting Blackinc
How do you define the main diagonal?

The longest one.
  • #462
  • Jul 3, 2007 9:41pm Jul 3, 2007 9:41pm
USD/JPY weekly. Fourth touch - "kiss of death".
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #463
  • Jul 3, 2007 10:49pm Jul 3, 2007 10:49pm
Quoting Igrok
USD/JPY weekly. Fourth touch - "kiss of death".

hi igrok, can u explain this further?
  • #464
  • Jul 3, 2007 11:14pm Jul 3, 2007 11:14pm
Quoting fx1711
hi igrok, can u explain this further?
The fourth approach to a trendline with extremely rare exceptions is followed by the break of the line. This is why only a third touch should be traded in the opposite direction away from the line. However a false break is also possible. But in its turn a false break is as good as a real one because it works as a confirmation for the market chosing the opposite direction for the next move.
  • #465
  • Jul 4, 2007 3:49am Jul 4, 2007 3:49am
Below is a daily of the AUD/USD.

I traded the third touch of the trendline successfully, but when it came to the forth, i left it alone, although according to the chart i could've traded that as well. Does the "kiss of death" apply when its a touch of the upper trendline of a rising trend?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #466
  • Jul 4, 2007 12:23pm Jul 4, 2007 12:23pm
Quoting Igrok
The longest one.
Igrok, in this case the longest diagonal is at the bottom so it is more likely to breakout towards the upside right
  • #467
  • Jul 5, 2007 7:12am Jul 5, 2007 7:12am
Quoting Igrok
The fourth approach to a trendline with extremely rare exceptions is followed by the break of the line. This is why only a third touch should be traded in the opposite direction away from the line. However a false break is also possible. But in its turn a false break is as good as a real one because it works as a confirmation for the market chosing the opposite direction for the next move.
Greetings Igrok,

Thank you for taking time to share your invaluable experience and trading approach with us. Please advise me how you confirm a trendline break. How do you protct against false breakouts? Thank you.

Regards,

Forexnetworth
  • #468
  • Jul 5, 2007 3:48pm Jul 5, 2007 3:48pm
Quoting Blackinc
Below is a daily of the AUD/USD.

I traded the third touch of the trendline successfully, but when it came to the forth, i left it alone, although according to the chart i could've traded that as well. Does the "kiss of death" apply when its a touch of the upper trendline of a rising trend?
Yes it does, but I prefer not to trade on the breaks of rising resistances or falling supports. Only place protective stops there.
  • #469
  • Jul 5, 2007 3:53pm Jul 5, 2007 3:53pm
Quoting jotty
Igrok, in this case the longest diagonal is at the bottom so it is more likely to breakout towards the upside right
Main diagonal is the one directly connecting the very top and the very bottom of a diamond formation. As expected, the initial break was on the upside in our case in discussion.
  • #470
  • Jul 5, 2007 4:03pm Jul 5, 2007 4:03pm
Quoting forexnetworth
Greetings Igrok,

Thank you for taking time to share your invaluable experience and trading approach with us. Please advise me how you confirm a trendline break. How do you protct against false breakouts? Thank you.

Regards,

Forexnetworth
On my opinion a trendline break is impossible to confirm ahead of time but when the time comes it's often becomes already too late to participate. Therefore, on my opinion, it works on practice only by trial and error. I 'm afraid that we have no other choice but to take a position, to place protective stops and to pray for luck in every case. There are however some warning signs appear sometimes that might warn us for a possible false break. For instance gaps, "combs" and "flat surfaces" left on the markets way before a trendline break occurs may warn us in advance that such a break has a chance to be a false one.
  • #471
  • Jul 5, 2007 4:12pm Jul 5, 2007 4:12pm
My article in Currency Trader Magazine is available now in its July issue. I guess the explanation I gave is clear enough in order to understand the concept of some of the templates based on ADTR. I would strongly recommend this read to anyone having problems with identifying basic templates for intraday trading. The subscription is free on the magazine's website. Any questions related to the publication I can answer here.
  • #472
  • Jul 6, 2007 2:14am Jul 6, 2007 2:14am
Seems to me that cable might try to avoid bullish crossover on weekly MACD today.
  • #473
  • Jul 6, 2007 7:58am Jul 6, 2007 7:58am
Seems that the border line on cable is 2.0072. Closing below this level will allow cable to avoid weekly MACD bullish crossover. Closing higher is likely to lead to fresh tops next week.
  • #474
  • Jul 6, 2007 2:44pm Jul 6, 2007 2:44pm
Monthly EUR/JPY. The upper red line is the most logical target for the moment. It now comes to around 178.00 level. This picture, combined with longer-term charts on the USD/JPY, rather insist that current carry trades positions are likely to unwind not earlier than after those two pairs make another thousand pips higher from today's levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #475
  • Jul 7, 2007 4:33am Jul 7, 2007 4:33am
Quoting Igrok
Monthly EUR/JPY. The upper red line is the most logical target for the moment. It now comes to around 178.00 level. This picture, combined with longer-term charts on the USD/JPY, rather insist that current carry trades positions are likely to unwind not earlier than after those two pairs make another thousand pips higher from today's levels.
Sounds interesting indeed. Say, on occassions like these, do you take trades like the third EJ TL touch at around 140.00?
I.e. do you trade touches or do you have some other form of entry?
As I don't have your book my questions are obviously a bit blue-eyed =)
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #476
  • Jul 8, 2007 9:18am Jul 8, 2007 9:18am
Quoting Igrok
Monthly EUR/JPY. The upper red line is the most logical target for the moment. It now comes to around 178.00 level. This picture, combined with longer-term charts on the USD/JPY, rather insist that current carry trades positions are likely to unwind not earlier than after those two pairs make another thousand pips higher from today's levels.
Thanks Igrok. It sounds much better than this one e.g.:

Quoting Igrok
Most current top at 162.42 is a very important level that exactly matches another major top made in 1998. The move from 150.80 to 162.40 could very well be the major diagonal of a reversal diamond in progress. It is possible that we will never see EUR/JPY trading higher in our lifetime.
especially by reason of you acknowledge that there is something as the carry trades and a context between jpy crosses also ... .
  • #477
  • Jul 17, 2007 4:08am Jul 17, 2007 4:08am
Cable Weekly.
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  • #478
  • Jul 23, 2007 4:37am Jul 23, 2007 4:37am
Given recent price action and using some historical analogies I think I have to reconsider some of my longer-term views. It now seems to me that this year range is likely to exceed the average. Because of that, EUR/USD has now a bigger chance to get to as low as parity some time before this year end.
  • #479
  • Jul 23, 2007 5:06am Jul 23, 2007 5:06am
Quoting Igrok
Given recent price action and using some historical analogies I think I have to reconsider some of my longer-term views. It now seems to me that this year range is likely to exceed the average. Because of that, EUR/USD has now a bigger chance to get to as low as parity some time before this year end.
no disrespect ,but what are you smoking?
  • #480
  • Jul 23, 2007 5:18am Jul 23, 2007 5:18am
Quoting Igrok
Given recent price action and using some historical analogies I think I have to reconsider some of my longer-term views. It now seems to me that this year range is likely to exceed the average. Because of that, EUR/USD has now a bigger chance to get to as low as parity some time before this year end.
Going by a rubber band / slingshot analogy I'd understand, but if you say it is likely to exceed it's average range, then wouldn't it have less power and pips to give back a lot of the already moved out range?

Or is the logic that of excessive stops built during the overextending of the range, hence allowing sellers to push back all the more easily eventually?

Not that I see a 1.0000 EURUSD happening yet as long as certain barriers hold, but I'd like to simply understand the mechanics behind the scenario you're outlining =)
Trust price. Know yourself.
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