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New Cable Thread & Other Pairs

  • #3,541
  • May 1, 2024 5:15am May 1, 2024 5:15am
In case of a red print in today's Manufacturing PMI, this would be the most likely scenario for me.

TP1: 1.0792 - 1.0800 (Confluence area with 0.5 FIB)
TP2: 1.0839 (Confluence area with 0.618 FIB)
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@Fran_Trades
  • #3,542
  • May 1, 2024 5:38am May 1, 2024 5:38am
Quoting FranG
In case of a red print in today's Manufacturing PMI, this would be the most likely scenario for me. TP1: 1.0792 - 1.0800 (Confluence area with 0.5 FIB) TP2: 1.0839 (Confluence area with 0.618 FIB) {image}
More chances I see for green data today, especially for employment numbers, which could pull lower all the pairs vs USD.
  • #3,543
  • May 1, 2024 5:47am May 1, 2024 5:47am
Quoting Mihisti
{quote} More chances I see for green data today, especially for employment numbers, which could pull lower all the pairs vs USD.
We will find out in no time! I'm also curious to see NFP's data on friday, especially regarding to the revisions of February and March numbers. This is a crucial report to start putting a first rate cut in June on the table (something that isn't currently priced in).

Good luck!
@Fran_Trades
  • #3,544
  • May 1, 2024 5:52am May 1, 2024 5:52am
meanwhile on USD/JPY... 158 reached... look at 5 minute chart, that doesn't look healthy. New line in the sand: 158. Only Seller: BOJ
That's the problem now. They already wasted 35 billion dollar on the drop from 160 to 155 when the news are correct. They have probably one more shot and than the balance sheet for 2024 is already messed up completely. Now we are at 158 again. 25 Billion burned. I think they wait and hope for bad news from US to dump the sh*t out of it. They need lower quotes than 160 and after intervention lower quotes of 154.50, better 153.50. 500 pips = 35 billion dollar cost = max I assume.

So BOJ has air to breath till 158.50... so they already try to keep market a bit down already using some money of the last intervention shot they have.
Powell will have lots of talk power/might today on USD/JPY. I hope he is not too hawkish. No one needs an even stronger dollar currently. -Even the US not due to interest payment on their debts.

Let's hope for the best.
  • #3,545
  • May 1, 2024 5:54am May 1, 2024 5:54am
Quoting FranG
{quote} We will find out in no time! I'm also curious to see NFP's data on friday, especially regarding to the revisions of February and March numbers. This is a crucial report to start putting a first rate cut in June on the table (something that isn't currently priced in). Good luck!
LOL, first rate cut. That was a good joke. I promise here officially: The first rate cut will come in 2025. I said that yesterday already. We have not had even one round of numbers where 75% of the numbers show a cool down on US-Economy. So no chance for rate cut. In June? Where can I bet against that? That must be a joke.

OMG, look at the forecast for today:
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How shall these numbers lead to a weaker USD?? I'm very sure we see stronger numbers than shown above (forecast). Here is the wish bigger than the realitiy. Why on earth shall we get these numbers?? Look at the last numbers. Clear uptrend. They wish for below 50 numbers so a turn / cooling down on US would be imminent. You can shoot me down later if I was wrong but I bet my butt it will be a "surprise" up on these numbers.

Powell will give the rest this evening. How should he talk down these strong figures?
  • #3,546
  • Edited 6:14am May 1, 2024 6:03am | Edited 6:14am
Quoting JackintheBox
{quote} LOL, first rate cut. That was a good joke. I promise here officially: The first rate cut will come in 2025. I said that yesterday already. We have not had even one round of numbers where 75% of the numbers show a cool down on US-Economy. So no chance for rate cut. In June? Where can I bet against that? That must be a joke.
The question for me is which will come first, the Fed's inflation target or the cooling of the labour market, and what decision the Fed will make once one of the two arrives.

My bet is that the cooling of the labour market will come sooner and that, once that happens, the FED will have no choice but to lower rates, even if that means higher than desired inflation for longer.

I certainly don't know if the Manufacturing PMI will come out below or above the forecast, I just know that in case it comes out below, I will start a long position EUR/USD with TP at 1.0792 and 1.0838, and I would reserve some ammunition in case a hawkish Powell gives us lower entries tonight.
@Fran_Trades
  • #3,547
  • May 1, 2024 6:07am May 1, 2024 6:07am
Quoting JackintheBox
{quote} LOL, first rate cut. That was a good joke. I promise here officially: The first rate cut will come in 2025. I said that yesterday already. We have not had even one round of numbers where 75% of the numbers show a cool down on US-Economy. So no chance for rate cut. In June? Where can I bet against that? That must be a joke. OMG, look at the forecast for today: {image} How shall these numbers lead to a weaker USD?? I'm very sure we see stronger numbers than shown above (forecast). Here is the wish bigger than the realitiy. Why on earth shall...
you're a smart man these people telling the Feds what to do when the Feds already planned for whether they are going to have it or not and based on the data being released monthly the possibility is slimmer and slimmer
  • #3,548
  • May 1, 2024 6:07am May 1, 2024 6:07am
Quoting FranG
In case of a red print in today's Manufacturing PMI, this would be the most likely scenario for me. TP1: 1.0792 - 1.0800 (Confluence area with 0.5 FIB) TP2: 1.0839 (Confluence area with 0.618 FIB) {image}
I like it but atm market should retrace to 1.07 let's say and move to retest 1.06.
That is based on higher tf context and pending targets.
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  • #3,549
  • May 1, 2024 6:10am May 1, 2024 6:10am
I see no sense running down intervention or running down rates cuts one hooray is not going to make you profitable it's about capitalizing on trends when they come and maximizing profits but some aren't trying to learn how to trade but straight gambling
  • #3,550
  • Edited 6:33am May 1, 2024 6:21am | Edited 6:33am
Quoting Godspromise
I see no sense running down intervention or running down rates cuts one hooray is not going to make you profitable it's about capitalizing on trends when they come and maximizing profits but some aren't trying to learn how to trade but straight gambling
You should differentiate between betting and elaborating different scenarios with their different actions in case one of them occurs, in a bet the action precedes the fact and at no time have I said that I will take a position before the numbers are published.

Also, just because I have only laid out one possible scenario doesn't mean I don't have more.
@Fran_Trades
  • #3,551
  • May 1, 2024 6:39am May 1, 2024 6:39am
Quoting FranG
{quote} You should differentiate between betting and elaborating different scenarios with their different actions in case one of them occurs, in a bet the action precedes the fact and at no time have I said that I will take a position before the numbers are published. Also, just because I have only laid out one possible scenario doesn't mean I don't have more.
my post is not directed at you my brother its at the simple fact that the chasing of the volume at the time of these meetings is gambling becuase even if the data are all green for usd for examplle it still can go the opposite way and collect alot of liquidity because it's not really about the data but how the market reacts to it so it's a very dangerous situation to bet on
  • #3,552
  • May 1, 2024 6:45am May 1, 2024 6:45am
Quoting Godspromise
{quote} my post is not directed at you my brother its at the simple fact that the chasing of the volume at the time of these meetings is gambling becuase even if the data are all green for usd for examplle it still can go the opposite way and collect alot of liquidity because it's not really about the data but how the market reacts to it so it's a very dangerous situation to bet on
I completely agree with you, manipulation is designed to distort the real direction of the market and to take liquidity.

My apologies if it was not directed at me
@Fran_Trades
  • #3,553
  • May 1, 2024 6:52am May 1, 2024 6:52am
Quoting FranG
{quote} I completely agree with you, manipulation is designed to distort the real direction of the market and to take liquidity. My apologies if it was not directed at me
no problem my brother green pips to you today trade safe
  • #3,554
  • May 1, 2024 6:55am May 1, 2024 6:55am
DXY close and small support/fuel 106.345, deeper 106.150
'In the clearing stands a boxer And a fighter by his trade..'
  • #3,555
  • May 1, 2024 7:07am May 1, 2024 7:07am
Quoting GOR
DXY close and small support/fuel 106.345, deeper 106.150
DXY
Little pullback to retest upper border of bullish flag after breakout.
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  • #3,556
  • May 1, 2024 7:10am May 1, 2024 7:10am
Gold
2305 is the level I am looking for short.
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  • #3,557
  • May 1, 2024 8:22am May 1, 2024 8:22am
I think it will goes down
My point of view
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Scalping
  • #3,558
  • May 1, 2024 8:37am May 1, 2024 8:37am
Well... I barked quite loud before... so it's time for me to short now... not sure if EUR/USD or GBP/USD. USD/JPY funny enough is quite strong. If BOJ would not be in the pits I would buy USD/JPY now. I probably will short EUR/USD before news. Cheers.
  • #3,559
  • May 1, 2024 8:46am May 1, 2024 8:46am
Quoting JackintheBox
Well... I barked quite loud before... so it's time for me to short now... not sure if EUR/USD or GBP/USD. USD/JPY funny enough is quite strong. If BOJ would not be in the pits I would buy USD/JPY now. I probably will short EUR/USD before news. Cheers.
EURJPY
Is giving some on level posted earlier, difficult to know if there will be any follow through tough.

EURAUD
Sold long term and will add more if it goes higher.
EURAUD
H1
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  • #3,560
  • May 1, 2024 8:48am May 1, 2024 8:48am
reckon we'll see some bad news this week on fomoc and non-farm seeing the dollar head south. i see longer term bearish setup on dxy. conversely bullish setups on euro and cable. again longer term so much wiggling to be expected.

meanwhile we should see this drop in dxy imo.
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