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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #87,961
  • Apr 26, 2024 3:33pm Apr 26, 2024 3:33pm
Any breakout believers?

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It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #87,962
  • Apr 26, 2024 4:13pm Apr 26, 2024 4:13pm
Quoting Desiremc
{quote} Just a random question. Are you a swing trader or you just use the high TF for your day trading?
I am a Guerilla trader. I am long term on some instruments, and day trade others. I pattern trade, so if i see the pattern on the 4hr I trade it. 15m... yep gimme.

Just remember that even day trades for the most part if you go with the trend you have a better R n R in my opinion.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #87,963
  • Apr 26, 2024 4:22pm Apr 26, 2024 4:22pm
Quoting Erebus
Any breakout believers? {image}
If 80% of breakouts fail what about the other 20%?

Do they break out with big volatility and unlikely to return to the entry? If so, I'll take those.

But maybe you mean trend traders and not breakout traders. And based on the comments on the JPY news stories, no.. there aren't many of trend/breakout traders.
  • #87,964
  • Edited 4:35pm Apr 26, 2024 4:24pm | Edited 4:35pm
Daily and Weekly cup and handle. If we see any bearishness we could just be moving to these retest these areas. 157 is however the top of a range, so IF a drop is coming, it needs to come now. With the FED not making any changes until Sept (my GUESS due to it being an election year), we have room to move up. Every time the FOMC rate cut is pushed back we continue higher. I believe the indices will fall until then, with quick retracements higher to pull buyers in before liquidating them. Then in Sept, just in time for the November presidential crap the cut will come and lift the indices and the euphoria will present itself.


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Oh.. Side note. Jamie Dimon of JPMC thinks we are headed back to the 70's. If that is the case 180 on USD/JPY and even perhaps 200 are all feasible as the Dollar losses its shit and flies

https://fortune.com/2024/04/24/jpmor...gflation-fear/

Remember. Everyone is crazy when they are the only one saying something. Once others fall in line they are considered genius. I like to pay attention to the outliers.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #87,965
  • Apr 26, 2024 4:31pm Apr 26, 2024 4:31pm
Quoting Anotan
{quote} If 80% of breakouts fail what about the other 20%? Do they break out with big volatility and unlikely to return to the entry? If so, I'll take those. But maybe you mean trend traders and not breakout traders. And based on the comments on the JPY news stories, no.. there aren't many of trend/breakout traders.

I think what he is saying is that most "break outs" are actually liquidity hunts. Stop hunts, or whatever term you would like to use. That break to the bottom surely proved to be one. For me a breakout isn't a breakout until it retests the cluster. No retracement to me usually means that the move itself IS the retracement. I could be misinterpreting his post though
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #87,966
  • Apr 26, 2024 4:40pm Apr 26, 2024 4:40pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} I think what he is saying is that most "break outs" are actually liquidity hunts. Stop hunts, or whatever term you would like to use. That break to the bottom surely proved to be one. For me a breakout isn't a breakout until it retests the cluster. No retracement to me usually means that the move itself IS the retracement. I could be misinterpreting his post though
Thanks for the support; don't pay any attention to me, I'm just rambling...

It's just a generic quote that I have heard over the years; it actually gives hope to breakout traders because 20% do work.

Have a nice weekend!

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #87,967
  • Apr 26, 2024 8:40pm Apr 26, 2024 8:40pm
MQA Approved FX Trainer -
  • #87,968
  • Apr 27, 2024 4:18am Apr 27, 2024 4:18am
In my opinion, if the Central Bank of Japan is going to intervene, this intervention will be done on holidays
  • #87,969
  • Apr 27, 2024 7:51am Apr 27, 2024 7:51am
Quoting tetis
In my opinion, if the Central Bank of Japan is going to intervene, this intervention will be done on holidays
incompetent japanese people can't do anything
  • #87,970
  • Edited Apr 28, 2024 5:48am Apr 27, 2024 9:35am | Edited Apr 28, 2024 5:48am
Quoting tetis
In my opinion, if the Central Bank of Japan is going to intervene, this intervention will be done on holidays
Well as Monday is a holiday in Japan this will be tested

Holiday: Showa Day.....mkts closed
  • #87,971
  • Apr 27, 2024 9:45am Apr 27, 2024 9:45am
Quoting pbrearton
{quote} Well as Monday is a holiday in Japan this will be tested
MQA Approved FX Trainer -
  • #87,972
  • Apr 27, 2024 9:56pm Apr 27, 2024 9:56pm
As i said before because the heads of the central bank of Japan are conservatives, such decisions, which can cause chaos in the market, are implemented on holidays or weekends. either this week or next week or .... weeks later
  • #87,973
  • Apr 28, 2024 2:53pm Apr 28, 2024 2:53pm
USDJPY price action on the H4 time frame made a northward drive to print an all-time high time at the 158.300 area. This was after a long period of sluggish momentum and consolidation. We should not be surprised to see bearish challenge of further bullish drive, or a decline in bullish momentum, in the next few days. As the recent USDJPY price action on the H4 time frame was parabolic and led to the printing of an all-time high at the 158.300 area, we may soon see a bearish correction.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP
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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #87,974
  • Apr 28, 2024 3:42pm Apr 28, 2024 3:42pm
Nice gap down for starters.
Has the intervention begun?
Tread very carefully
It's a big game.
  • #87,975
  • Apr 28, 2024 3:53pm Apr 28, 2024 3:53pm
Quoting funzodundee
Nice gap down for starters. Has the intervention begun? Tread very carefully
Don't think so. I thin we will know by Tue whether this is a real deal or just another pull back to load up again. Its crazy. Every pull back has seen bounce back up
  • #87,976
  • Apr 28, 2024 5:15pm Apr 28, 2024 5:15pm
Quoting funzodundee
Nice gap down for starters. Has the intervention begun? Tread very carefully
Dream on, bankers are still sleeping in Japan, besides, it's a bank holiday so they are going golfing later, good ruck.

It takes a lot for me to IGNORE you, but you can try.
  • #87,977
  • Apr 28, 2024 5:51pm Apr 28, 2024 5:51pm
Quoting Erebus
{quote} Dream on, bankers are still sleeping in Japan, besides, it's a bank holiday so they are going golfing later, good ruck.

but intervention is never done by the Bank of Japan but by the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, or the mother of central banks
  • #87,978
  • Apr 28, 2024 5:58pm Apr 28, 2024 5:58pm
and another rule says that the greatest pain will be inflicted when no one expects it and where no one expects it. That is when the property of the majority can best be transferred into the hands of the minority
  • #87,979
  • Apr 28, 2024 6:42pm Apr 28, 2024 6:42pm
Good morning, and happy golden week to all my fellow traders in Japan!

I have decided to post a few charts here because I am just so amazed at how many people keep trying to short USDJPY in the "chance" that they may catch some kind of intervention move, in particular the gamblers in the "Cable Update (GBPUSD)" thread. The sad thing also is that I believe that if they were lucky enough to go short the moment any kind of intervention happened (by the way, that's an absurd way to trade long tern anyway), they would only stay in the move for a few seconds or minutes.... well what's the point in that when you have been trying this for weeks and lost so much money in the process.

So here are a few charts to consider....

- The first chart is last weeks weekly candle close... enough said

- The second chart is the last time a weekly candle closed bearish. Notice how it pulled back slightly the following week? Then, the next 4 weekly candles each closed with a lower high and a lower low. You could have trailed this safely for 4 weeks.

The last chart is a 4h zoomed in chart of the last bearish weekly close at the pull back point. Very easy to spot an entry. Probably even more sniper-ish on the 1H.

My point is, stop gambling, stop being a dick, stop loosing money, and just wait if you really really wanna try short this thing! Last weeks candle has close super green bullish. Nothing to see here, come back next week.

Have a good week people
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Emotional Control. Process, not outcome.
  • #87,980
  • Edited 9:18pm Apr 28, 2024 8:51pm | Edited 9:18pm
That was a big M1 candle! I think the BOJ did an intervention, but they pressed the wrong button.
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