{quote} This is very probable as we have engulfing candle at daily resistance{image}
New Cable Thread & Other Pairs
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- #3,246
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{quote} eur/usd 2 failed attempt = Danger https://youtu.be/dW66keO8Iew?si=gPs3fchNtOi8_en1
monthly direction for both EU & GU is still down
cheers,
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
- #3,247
- Apr 28, 2024 10:21am Apr 28, 2024 10:21am
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{quote} I'm wearing a kilt just to avoid any clan hostility, not the best for my chicken legs but highlanders temper not to be trusted. monthly direction for both EU & GU is still down {image} {image} cheers,
Lmfao
- #3,248
- Apr 28, 2024 10:50am Apr 28, 2024 10:50am
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hope you wear your kilt regimental
"Nothing is worn, it's all in perfect working order."
"Nothing is worn, it's all in perfect working order."
dolce vita
- #3,250
- Apr 28, 2024 11:03am Apr 28, 2024 11:03am
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{quote} Tbh i don't understand why everyone is shorting usdjpy.. it's the same with gold.. go with the trend..
Word of caution to folks following this thread and wanting to trade yen, see my previous posts for thoughts and warnings from other posters as well. Specifically with the manipulation occurring, don't stay in yen trades for long and keep stops tight and to BE as soon as possible. As tempting as carry trades are, it's a bad idea/really high risk to your account atm.
If attempting longer hold trades/carry trades, apply conservative money management principles, smaller positions, lower margin ratios, etc. so your account doesn't get pillaged. Yen is once again the BoJ and market makers cash cow.
Get your piece of the cow.
- #3,253
- Edited 12:06pm Apr 28, 2024 11:43am | Edited 12:06pm
- | Joined Feb 2021 | Status: Trader | 185 Posts
Since there's so much interest in yen because of the uncharted waters, please take the attached chart and thoughts with a grain of salt....
Considering the scale and relatively unprecedented, but unsurprising, nature of the fleecing, I'm taking a very macro view because of the large movements. The Daily will hit the 161.8 around 159. If the dollar finishes the month strong it may punch through and the momentum of this pair could be a reason the dxy goes through it's own resistance. Otherwise, we may hit 159 and range for a bit.
Unrealistic, but let's talk extreme worse case, it does punch through 159, where does it stop? I don't have access to anything currently with history back 40 years. Best guess is next fib level. The 261 fib is somewhere around 170. I'm just guessing because I can't zoom far enough out on MT4 Mobile to really tell and I'm not at home to use a PC atm.
170 probably means very hard times economically for Japan. My speculation is where ever inflation driven rate increases and or BoJ intervention hit, it doesn't cause a huge bearish trend, more slightly bearish transitioning to mostly ranging. The yen may not be used as a safe haven for years to come, this would be the main reason for yen to be wanted again and increase in value, the fundamentals just aren't there and don't appear to be on the horizon. US and Eurozone economies would need to be struggling very hard to turn yen back into a port in the storm.
Counter view to consider: As mentioned before, 155 was a psychological level similar to eurusd parity, but less significant. Ranging between 155 and 159 is possible over the coming months, should the dollar go sideways/slow down.
Betting against major currencies (Dollar, pound, euro) for the yen isn't a money maker. Even if there was another H4 structure break, I'd probably not short and wait to buy the bottom of the range.
Considering the scale and relatively unprecedented, but unsurprising, nature of the fleecing, I'm taking a very macro view because of the large movements. The Daily will hit the 161.8 around 159. If the dollar finishes the month strong it may punch through and the momentum of this pair could be a reason the dxy goes through it's own resistance. Otherwise, we may hit 159 and range for a bit.
Unrealistic, but let's talk extreme worse case, it does punch through 159, where does it stop? I don't have access to anything currently with history back 40 years. Best guess is next fib level. The 261 fib is somewhere around 170. I'm just guessing because I can't zoom far enough out on MT4 Mobile to really tell and I'm not at home to use a PC atm.
170 probably means very hard times economically for Japan. My speculation is where ever inflation driven rate increases and or BoJ intervention hit, it doesn't cause a huge bearish trend, more slightly bearish transitioning to mostly ranging. The yen may not be used as a safe haven for years to come, this would be the main reason for yen to be wanted again and increase in value, the fundamentals just aren't there and don't appear to be on the horizon. US and Eurozone economies would need to be struggling very hard to turn yen back into a port in the storm.
Counter view to consider: As mentioned before, 155 was a psychological level similar to eurusd parity, but less significant. Ranging between 155 and 159 is possible over the coming months, should the dollar go sideways/slow down.
Betting against major currencies (Dollar, pound, euro) for the yen isn't a money maker. Even if there was another H4 structure break, I'd probably not short and wait to buy the bottom of the range.
- #3,254
- Apr 28, 2024 12:33pm Apr 28, 2024 12:33pm
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- #3,255
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short trump and go long the deepstate
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