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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #5,541
  • Jul 2, 2007 12:12pm Jul 2, 2007 12:12pm
Quoting Palmer
Hey Bil...

I'm watching the same thing, the 4 hour is knocking at that door right now. I'm still short from the 123.42 area and a re-entry on the 1hr. The next candle may show a retrace so I'll be tightening things up if that happens. This was such a long run that it may take a few 4 hour candles to form a Rb....
Yes. Could take some candles to confirm change of direction but 200SMA allways a big role player
  • #5,542
  • Jul 2, 2007 12:56pm Jul 2, 2007 12:56pm
Dont know why but i totally missed the trend continuation pattern on the 1h of eurusd.. I mean i was sat there watching but i think my charts played a trick on me keeping me in deep conversation or something?

How many of you took the signal on the 1h for eurusd and usdjpy? it would have paid off...

Palmer, if the eurusd forms a rt in its curren situation what would you do? I was hoping it would make it to 1.3665 which is solid resistance on the weekly and then form a rt.

Any thoughts?
  • #5,543
  • Edited 4:19pm Jul 2, 2007 1:28pm | Edited 4:19pm
All right, let's look at the weekly Euro dollar. Now, when the market started on Monday, we were above the 89; we were above the 200, and then the market pulled back a little bit to the 200 sma, as well as the 21 ema, right there where that number one green arrow upwards is. And you remember that's what I said. I'm going to believe the MACD and the rhythm of the market because we went through the 89 last week; It came back to the 21, and then it pulled away with that trend continuation pattern on the MACD. Although there was that trend line on top there, I still said I'm going to believe it, and I'm going to position myself for a breakout trade upwards. Well, it did not realize. It came down, and I lost, I think, 32 pips . . . 33, 33 pips there.
But, also what I would like you to see are those two green lines, the bottom support and the top resistance. There's a triangle forming. The purple line was there on Monday morning because we hadn't had the rest of the week's data yet, but on Friday, actually, on Thursday, that red small "c" circle (that's where that bottom green line comes into play).
All right, why did I think of an upwards breakout trade? We're above the 200. Look at that purple circle. It found support on the 200. Look at the red "a, b, c" on the 365 ema. If you look last week, you see that rectangle, the red one. The price found resistance. It went a little bit through, but it found resistance at the 365. Then it goes through the 365, through the 200, and it found support on the 200. So, if you were to believe that the market is going to break out, you could have positioned yourself for that breakout trade. And that's what I did on number 2. Number one, I lost; number 2, that green upward arow there, that's where I went long again. After a bit I went break even, and I got taken out break even on that purple circle there on the 200 sma. Then the market came down at small "c" again, and then on Friday morning, yesterday morning, when I got up before I went to work, I saw that green candle coming through the 200 sma just left of that green arrow number 3. That's where I went long. I closed it last night. I think it was in the region of 80 pips, if I remember correctly. Somewhere around there. I think it was 80, eventually, after the brokerage. But say, for instance, that you believe that the market is going to turn around, going to come down. That's where you would have made your deals, on "A" and "B," "A" downwards, "B" downwards. The worst that could have happened to you is to break even. And then the market went right through the roof there, but at the "A" and "B" arrows, that is where you would have made your down moves.
So, it's very important not to make up and down moves just regularly, randomly as the market is moving. You've got to analyze the motion of the market. Look at the triangle there. The market's going to break out. Right. If you are of the opinion, "Maybe it's going to break out to the bottom," you've got to position yourself to be in that move.
Remember, that's what I said in the . . . There's a whole mp3 somewhere on the thread where I've said how you position yourself to be in a trade, should it go a certain direction. You make a decision before that. You anticipate this market is going to move up, or it's going to move down.
And then you, (in this case, look at the 89). Was it turning upwards on Friday? We're above the 89. We're above the 200, finding support on the 200 sma. So, to me, if I have to say what this market is going to do, I will say, "All right, it found support on the 200, which is a very strong resistance or support line." So, the chances that it will go up are much higher than that it will come down because of that support line. For a whole week it sits on top of it. Okay, it found resistance against that trend line or that resistance line, that green one on the top, as well. But Friday morning, that candle. Let me quickly see what time it was. It was the 4:00, to 8:00 candle. That was sort of an engulfing candle, not a hundred per cent, but it was a good one. It was off the 200 sma. It was a zero break that came from the MACD upwards.
And, even if you switch to the one hour, I believe that the one hour would have confirmed it. Let me quickly have a look there. I'll see what the one hour did on Friday. There it was. You can go and have a look for yourself. It also came off the 200 on the one hour. So, that one hour . . . Okay, even if you left that out and just looked at the four hour, the reason for going long was that strong support on the 200. So, even if you were looking for the down break, you will have made two deals for the week. That was that "A" and that "B," and, if you looked for the up one, you would have made those three green arrows upwards, and, eventually, the third one would have payed off.
I know it's easy to show it afterwards, but I said it during the week, on that one mp3, that I had positioned myself for that outbreak to the top. While it did not work out at arrow number one, at arrow number two, it was a break even, and at arrow number three, that's the one that came. Luckily, I was down when I could have done that one yesterday morning. [?? Luckily, I was there to do that one yesterday morning.]
I saw a lot of people got a lot of pips on other currencies during the week. So, what I want to ask you people is to, for those that are new and not so familiar with the market rhythm, go back to those summaries and study those three lessons on the market rhythm. You've got to know that by heart, and you've got to analyze the market in terms of that motion. Where is the market in terms of its motion? And according to that, you make your decision as to whether you're going to go long or you're going to go short, and what type of signals you are waiting for.
I hope next week will be a heavy pipping week.
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  • #5,544
  • Jul 2, 2007 1:35pm Jul 2, 2007 1:35pm
When there is a high probability setup with a certain currency, stay focused. Analise all possibalities. Write them down.
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  • #5,545
  • Jul 2, 2007 2:01pm Jul 2, 2007 2:01pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
When there is a high probability setup with a certain currency, stay focused. Analise all possibalities. Write them down.
Philip thank you so much for that, I will start writing things down as you said and try to stay more focused.

-D-
  • #5,546
  • Jul 2, 2007 2:15pm Jul 2, 2007 2:15pm
Hi Philip Thanks 4 Sharing
What is your broker (i mean your broker that u get signal from that & insert Example in e-book)
because my broker show me some difrent signals that in your example for example about higher low

thanks Philip
  • #5,547
  • Jul 2, 2007 2:21pm Jul 2, 2007 2:21pm
Quoting Digitaldean
Dont know why but i totally missed the trend continuation pattern on the 1h of eurusd.. I mean i was sat there watching but i think my charts played a trick on me keeping me in deep conversation or something?

How many of you took the signal on the 1h for eurusd and usdjpy? it would have paid off...

Palmer, if the eurusd forms a rt in its curren situation what would you do? I was hoping it would make it to 1.3665 which is solid resistance on the weekly and then form a rt.

Any thoughts?
you are not alone my friend . Saw the TC signal and just kept watching. dont know why did not pull the trigger. i was telling another member of this forum that my charts hypnotize me when there is a good oppurtunity specially with TC signal and i just sit and observe. JOkes apart , i am seriously analyzing myself and the charts why i did not take the signal. i guess i over analyze.
About Euro , there seems to be more room to go up april high of 1.3678. but macd above 45 . so lets see. where the MA guide us to. good luck.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,548
  • Jul 2, 2007 2:28pm Jul 2, 2007 2:28pm
Dean:

I'm watching it and I'd be favoring another pullback to the 8. It's a strong trend so I'd keep an eye on it closely or put your profit target in along with the order. The thing about it is, is, the USDJPY may take a bounce off off major support and head to the upside which could 'help' the EURUSD to the downside. Either way, if it forms and that current candle stays small, the risk should be minimal because of the distance to the 8. I'm watching both of these pairs for the next candle. There was a failed Rt, at least on my charts there were, for the EURUSD last night. I think the MACD color change was weak, something like 1 point difference in the color change. Another indication of the strength in the trend? And, at the same time the USDJPY was showing no sigh of forming a Rb on that same candle. The point difference for that MACD color change on the 4 hour was something like 20. I'm wondering, these are a bunch of ifs here. if there is a strong correlation between pairs, and if one pair is showing a weak Rt or Rb like the EURUSD did last night, and the other pair, in theis case the USDJPY showed no sign of a Rb, might that be used as a filter to no enter the Rt on the EURUSD??? Lots of ifs here. I didn't look at what the USDCHF was doing at the same time that the EURUSD was trying to form that Rt...Anyway, not sure if this is worth looking back at or not.
  • #5,549
  • Jul 2, 2007 3:08pm Jul 2, 2007 3:08pm
Hello all,

Just in the name of laziness- Does anybody have an mql (metatrader) indicator for displaying fibonacci confluences, something along the lines of the 'Nexgen T-3 Fibs' minus the 7 grand expense??

I'm not a fan of technical indicators- but I use fibo confluences/clusters a lot- as I believe most in here do- and thought this would be useful.


Cheers Ears...


PS also asked in Jamessixteen thread- hope this is ok forum etiquette
pessimism of the intellect and optimism of the will
  • #5,550
  • Jul 2, 2007 3:14pm Jul 2, 2007 3:14pm
Quoting Palmer
Dean:

I'm watching it and I'd be favoring another pullback to the 8. It's a strong trend so I'd keep an eye on it closely or put your profit target in along with the order. The thing about it is, is, the USDJPY may take a bounce off off major support and head to the upside which could 'help' the EURUSD to the downside. Either way, if it forms and that current candle stays small, the risk should be minimal because of the distance to the 8. I'm watching both of these pairs for the next candle. There was a failed Rt, at least on my charts there were, for the EURUSD last night. I think the MACD color change was weak, something like 1 point difference in the color change. Another indication of the strength in the trend? And, at the same time the USDJPY was showing no sigh of forming a Rb on that same candle. The point difference for that MACD color change on the 4 hour was something like 20. I'm wondering, these are a bunch of ifs here. if there is a strong correlation between pairs, and if one pair is showing a weak Rt or Rb like the EURUSD did last night, and the other pair, in theis case the USDJPY showed no sign of a Rb, might that be used as a filter to no enter the Rt on the EURUSD??? Lots of ifs here. I didn't look at what the USDCHF was doing at the same time that the EURUSD was trying to form that Rt...Anyway, not sure if this is worth looking back at or not.
Thanks for your view palmer.

I have a question say the eurusd and usdjpy are looking like they are following each other and you get a signal on each at a strong support or resistance area at the same time or with a bar what would you use to decide which signal you would take?
  • #5,551
  • Jul 2, 2007 3:30pm Jul 2, 2007 3:30pm
Hmm:

I've been 'involved' with the USDJPY for the better part of a week now so that's where I'm tuned in right now. If I was on the outside looking in it would have to depend on what the R:R is for the two set ups and where within the trend is the current price action; is the market heading up from a low in a channel or how well it has been reacting to previous s/r levels. Let me guess...you're watching the E$ and $Yen, me too. The $Yen has been jumping up and down for the last few hours and the E$ has been asleep it seems. This might be the Asian session warming up for open. Either way, there isn't really one thing that makes me decide. They can't make this too easy for us
  • #5,552
  • Jul 2, 2007 4:15pm Jul 2, 2007 4:15pm
Daily Wrap Up -- 2July2007
All right, let's quickly run through the wrap up. Sorry I've not been active on the forum for the past weekend or so. I see that last week was a bit difficult trading except for Friday's afternoon breakout, and, today, we had a continuation of that breakout. I expected the price to come back to the 21 on the Euro dollar, which it did not, but it gave a very beautiful trend continuation pattern off the 8 ema. If you were brave enough to take that one on. I would have not because the stop loss was over 50 pips, but the one hour, if you look at the one hour (that's where the one hour comes in really handy), you'll see it gives a beautiful trend continuation pattern, some nice small candles on the 8 ema, where the price on the one hour finds support on that 8 ema. And then you've got that nice long candle moving away at nine o'clock, 9:00 hrs on my platform, and then that's where you enter. And, up to now, it's over 60 pips. That's on the Euro dollar. Remember, the breakout was strong, so you don't counter trend trade after a breakout.
The British Pound continued its up move from last week, so it was difficult to let it go over the weekend, close your trade on Friday, and then reenter today. Let me have a look at the one hour, quickly, see there. Yeah, even the one hour was very choppy, so it was difficult getting to the British Pound today on the four hour and even on the one hour.
USDJPY, not a MACD four hour signal today, but let's look at the one hour and see where it moved away from the trendline, from the support there. Yes, also difficult to get in there. Although, on the four hour, your 4:00 candle was an engulfing, bearish one off the 89 sma downwards. That could have been an entry, but you could have taken the next candle, the big one coming down on the one hour up to the 200 sma on the 4 hour. That would have been your target. Let me just quickly look. That long candle. Yes, on the one hour, the 08:00 candle, on the USDJPY, it came off the 89 sma on the one hour, and it broke the 365. At the close of that, you could have gone short there. There was some movement there.
The Aussie dollar, also, a continuation of that up trend. The one hour kept above the 7:00 candle. That was the one. You could have gone long there off the 8 ema.
All right. The Canadian one, I think that's the one that most people took today. It gave a beautiful just below zero break, and it's a trend continuation off the 21 ema. That was according to the rules. You could have made 60 pips there.
The Swissy also gave a trend continuation pattern, but on the one hour, like the Euro dollar, you could have gotten in earlier there. And then the others, I don't really look at. But those are the ones for the day, and it was sort of a difficult trading day in certain ways, to get into the motion. But, if you stuck to the rules and let the one hour help you and support you, you could have gotten in and made some pips today. The others, EURJPY, not really. EURGBP, I'm not really looking at those.
There was someone who asked whether 300 pips per month was obtainable with the MACD system only on the Euro dollar, and I just want to answer that, in the sense that I'm looking at both the EURUSD and the GBPUSD, and, on the two together, like the original document said, on the two together, I make 300 plus a month. It's not just on the one currency, but you must remember that one month you might make about nothing or just break even, when it's difficult. But other months you could make 600 pips. It's an average that you will make there.
I just want to thank all the people for the tape scripts of the mp3's, on the lessons that they have typed for us. And I just want to thank you all. It's nice to see people helping each other.
But, still, I want to come back to the fact that I see too many people trading the MACD system live, not knowing the market motion, getting in trades that aren't with the motion, the rhythm of the market. That's very important. The MACD signal alone is not going to help you. You've got to get into the motion of the market. The Canadian one, the USDCAD, was a beautiful one, broke through the 89. It came back to the 21 Friday, and, today, it moved away. That was part of the rhythm. That's where you got nicely into it. The EURUSD was a very fast breakout on the 8 ema, but you could have picked it up with the one hour system supporting you. Going long there, you could have made 60 pips. Sixty pips par for the week, I don't think anyone will say, "No thank you," for that. Well let's hope the rest of the week gives us some more pips.
  • #5,553
  • Jul 2, 2007 6:23pm Jul 2, 2007 6:23pm
Palmer,

This is what i get for the EURUSD on the dialy, I have a RT signal on my 4H with good r-r if it does not move far in the next 35 mins.

Three tails on the 4H also.

Dean
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  • #5,554
  • Jul 2, 2007 7:00pm Jul 2, 2007 7:00pm
Here's my 4 hour with another hour to go before closing that candle. It's trying...
Attached Image
  • #5,555
  • Jul 2, 2007 7:20pm Jul 2, 2007 7:20pm
Quoting Digitaldean
Dont know why but i totally missed the trend continuation pattern on the 1h of eurusd.. I mean i was sat there watching but i think my charts played a trick on me keeping me in deep conversation or something?

How many of you took the signal on the 1h for eurusd and usdjpy? it would have paid off...

Palmer, if the eurusd forms a rt in its curren situation what would you do? I was hoping it would make it to 1.3665 which is solid resistance on the weekly and then form a rt.

Any thoughts?
Hi Digitaldean,

I sometimes have the same issue re:missing the signal b/c I am looking at the charts for so long. That is why I write down ahead of time what I want to see as a "reminder." It is very helpful.

Also, sometimes, like yesterday...when the signals are strong, I will enter limit orders at the 1 hour MA w/my TP's set and my stops based from 4 hour....everything worked out in advance. The results were 80 pips for Cable and 50 pips on Swissy for re-entry using the limit method.

I also have strong res. at the same level as you do on E/U, but will not plan enter anything until later tonight (after my 5 PM candle closes and a couple of hours on the 1 hour). As for the RT shown earlier, I ignored them and did nothing b/c the trends from Friday seemed "real." by that I mean, they were strong w/out retracements on Friday and they didn't reverse on Sunday afternoon. Swissy's downward move has been massive too (the MACD hit -0057)....which led me to believe E/U was a real break out (I don't usually trade it, but I did pull 40 pips from it too but used Phillip's 5 min system to play it in harmony w/the 4 hour MACD and 1 hour MACD). Funny how these events occur before US Holiday's...Thanksgiving....4th of July....

Now, I wait for the market to tell me what to do next. For Swissie, It may consolidate a bit around the 1.2100 level, travel back to the TL it broke through around 1.2192 and continue on it's way? or be range-bound for a bit? The market will show it's hand, and if it fits a scenario I've pre-planned, then I'll enter. Cable...I really thought it would turn sooner...so it has a real breakout too....again, will watch and plan and enter if scenarios fit conditions...(I jumped ahead of the turn on Friday b/c it was hitting previous levels where it turned...thank goodness I kept the stops tight and closed the position out before the weekend...took a 30 pips loss...funny how I give pips back when I KNOW what the market should do...never has worked out right!). What does work is talking through the motion of the market...where has it been, what is it doing, where is it likely to go, where will it retrace, what does the MACD look like on the 4 hour and the 1 hour.

Lastly, as far as U/J...keep an eye out for the retrace...maybe back to the 89 and a pull away from the MA's. This is the best signal one can follow...the price direction (W/MACD conf). If you plan on taking the RB keep your eyes on the trade, protect profit, and keep stops tight.

This is all just my opinion....But, last night sure was great! I love nights/days like that!!! & W/Phillip's system, my pairs have been very giving to me lately!

Happy Trading -- and possibly, be aware of a slow day/night ahead....sometimes the market likes to rest after it moves the way it has...and with the BOE rate decision on Thursday Morning.....(Maybe that will be the turn? Ohhhh...must stop seeing the future...I'm not good at it! ....and NFP on Friday!)...Just be prepared to act when the time is right!

Pips
  • #5,556
  • Jul 2, 2007 8:08pm Jul 2, 2007 8:08pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Digitaldean,

I sometimes have the same issue re:missing the signal b/c I am looking at the charts for so long. That is why I write down ahead of time what I want to see as a "reminder." It is very helpful.

Also, sometimes, like yesterday...when the signals are strong, I will enter limit orders at the 1 hour MA w/my TP's set and my stops based from 4 hour....everything worked out in advance. The results were 80 pips for Cable and 50 pips on Swissy for re-entry using the limit method.

I also have strong res. at the same level as you do on E/U, but will not plan enter anything until later tonight (after my 5 PM candle closes and a couple of hours on the 1 hour). As for the RT shown earlier, I ignored them and did nothing b/c the trends from Friday seemed "real." by that I mean, they were strong w/out retracements on Friday and they didn't reverse on Sunday afternoon. Swissy's downward move has been massive too (the MACD hit -0057)....which led me to believe E/U was a real break out (I don't usually trade it, but I did pull 40 pips from it too but used Phillip's 5 min system to play it in harmony w/the 4 hour MACD and 1 hour MACD). Funny how these events occur before US Holiday's...Thanksgiving....4th of July....

Now, I wait for the market to tell me what to do next. For Swissie, It may consolidate a bit around the 1.2100 level, travel back to the TL it broke through around 1.2192 and continue on it's way? or be range-bound for a bit? The market will show it's hand, and if it fits a scenario I've pre-planned, then I'll enter. Cable...I really thought it would turn sooner...so it has a real breakout too....again, will watch and plan and enter if scenarios fit conditions...(I jumped ahead of the turn on Friday b/c it was hitting previous levels where it turned...thank goodness I kept the stops tight and closed the position out before the weekend...took a 30 pips loss...funny how I give pips back when I KNOW what the market should do...never has worked out right!). What does work is talking through the motion of the market...where has it been, what is it doing, where is it likely to go, where will it retrace, what does the MACD look like on the 4 hour and the 1 hour.

Lastly, as far as U/J...keep an eye out for the retrace...maybe back to the 89 and a pull away from the MA's. This is the best signal one can follow...the price direction (W/MACD conf). If you plan on taking the RB keep your eyes on the trade, protect profit, and keep stops tight.

This is all just my opinion....But, last night sure was great! I love nights/days like that!!! & W/Phillip's system, my pairs have been very giving to me lately!

Happy Trading -- and possibly, be aware of a slow day/night ahead....sometimes the market likes to rest after it moves the way it has...and with the BOE rate decision on Thursday Morning.....(Maybe that will be the turn? Ohhhh...must stop seeing the future...I'm not good at it! ....and NFP on Friday!)...Just be prepared to act when the time is right!

Pips

Thanks Pip's.

Great post as always
  • #5,557
  • Jul 2, 2007 8:16pm Jul 2, 2007 8:16pm
Well...

Hello guys...
After read almost all post, read the pdf's, do some backtests and demo I am still in doubt

So...

If anyone can help me, is now a good time to enter short in EUR/USD? Or it's better to way the price broke the 1.3600 level??

Thanks for the help!

P.S.: This is a great system, Phillip! Thank you for share it!
  • #5,558
  • Jul 2, 2007 8:46pm Jul 2, 2007 8:46pm
Quoting LordElessar
Well...

Hello guys...
After read almost all post, read the pdf's, do some backtests and demo I am still in doubt

So...

If anyone can help me, is now a good time to enter short in EUR/USD? Or it's better to way the price broke the 1.3600 level??

Thanks for the help!

P.S.: This is a great system, Phillip! Thank you for share it!


Hi and welcome,

I am in no place to give serious advice but I entered short the EURUSD but i am not in doubt as I know from my back testing that the odds are in my favor. I will move to b/e at 20 pips (i have a EA to do that so i can sleep through the night.)

we will see what the morning brings

-D-
  • #5,559
  • Jul 2, 2007 10:28pm Jul 2, 2007 10:28pm
Quoting Digitaldean
Hi and welcome,

I am in no place to give serious advice but I entered short the EURUSD but i am not in doubt as I know from my back testing that the odds are in my favor. I will move to b/e at 20 pips (i have a EA to do that so i can sleep through the night.)

we will see what the morning brings

-D-
Thanks Digital!

Well I didn't enter.
I am very sick... can't think very well hehe

I don't know. There few candles showing of indecision The Asian session are to slow til now.

Maybe I will regret don't enter in this pair...

Thanks!
Samuel
  • #5,560
  • Jul 2, 2007 11:05pm Jul 2, 2007 11:05pm
Quoting Digitaldean
Thanks Pip's.

Great post as always
Thanks! But, I should have listened to Phillip's Mp3 first!! (Just listened to the focus MP3...and it said what I tried too....only much nicer . I am always floored at how much knowledge is shared! (I paid someone to be my mentor ....and didn't learn as much as I have from this thread!! Of course, I think what I did learn has made it much easier to absorb the teachings found here....I was ready to comprehend the message and apply it to my trading...timing is everything in Forex ).

Bil2205...I also think you miss the TC on 1 hour b/c you are unsure of their validity. Write down when you would enter and what the trade would be if you took it....while you are watching it live and you think you see a signal. Then see how it plays out. It is a great way to see the value of the early entry/retrace entry method! I use to be scared of it too....but, for me, it has now become the cornerstone of all my trading strategies (remember, what we can see evolving in the market is something that we have learned to recognize and believe in....if we don't believe something is valid, we convienently don't see it, IMHO). Even when I am scalping the market, trades are only taken in harmony w/the MACD (so a 15 min scalp is confirmed w/the 1 hour MACD...even a 5 min pattern is confirmed w/30 min and 1 hour, sometimes the 15 min (the rhythm follows on all TF's, but must make sure a short term scalp can produce enough pips to cover spread or it is invalid)....This is just info...not part of the 4 hour system...

the point is: become comfortable with these teachings and they will become the cornerstone of all your trading methods...except when you have ESP (LOL!)....which may lead you to lose pips.....:

Still waiting for a nice entry signal....

Bye,
Pips
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