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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #5,501
  • Jun 30, 2007 10:55am Jun 30, 2007 10:55am
ok i might be going over board with trend lines but here is picture based strictly on trendlines on 4 hour chart, the 2 blue lines are major trend lines from month and weekly chart. hey i am learning here so please correct me if i am missing anything obvious.
Right now price at 2.0079.
maybe a retrace down to 2.0029(or somewhere in that region)lower arrow where inner top from april and current TL intersect.
then move back up to 2.0104 or( or somewhere in that region)
and eventually to 2.0165.upper arrow , where the blue and white TL intersect
We have to keep in mind the MA , macd and news as well. but since we are in an uptrend this is what i see.
all comments welcome.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable.jpg Size: 41 KB
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,502
  • Jun 30, 2007 12:19pm Jun 30, 2007 12:19pm
Quoting BIL2205
ok i might be going over board with trend lines but here is picture based strictly on trendlines on 4 hour chart, the 2 blue lines are major trend lines from month and weekly chart. hey i am learning here so please correct me if i am missing anything obvious.
Right now price at 2.0079.
maybe a retrace down to 2.0029(or somewhere in that region)lower arrow where inner top from april and current TL intersect.
then move back up to 2.0104 or( or somewhere in that region)
and eventually to 2.0165.upper arrow , where the blue and white TL intersect
We have to keep in mind the MA , macd and news as well. but since we are in an uptrend this is what i see.
all comments welcome.
Hi all

I have a slight different view. i am actually short bias now, waiting for Short signals. Here my reasons

Monthly charts - Triple Top
Weekly - MACD showing divergence..possible exhaustion of trend.
Daily - Price is near my Top channel trendline and weekly Resistance. Unless Price breaks thru my channel with 4HR MACD support i will buy if not i wait. ( i missed the TC signal on Fri)
4hr: Strong up trend currently but possibly to the area of 2.0071-2.0151.
  • #5,503
  • Jun 30, 2007 12:54pm Jun 30, 2007 12:54pm
Thanks to all for putting the Mp3 audio to paper. I appreciate it and know it will help others to benifit. Can you send it to me so that I can put it together as one part the same as the 13 summary lessons so that people wont get confused.
Thanks again

E-mail [email protected]
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Not Knowing the 4H MACD.zip   846 KB | 1,903 downloads
  • #5,504
  • Jun 30, 2007 12:57pm Jun 30, 2007 12:57pm
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 Hour Strategy.jpg Size: 56 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip EurUsd Weekly Wrapup.zip   843 KB | 1,571 downloads
  • #5,505
  • Jun 30, 2007 1:19pm Jun 30, 2007 1:19pm
Quoting BIL2205
ok i might be going over board with trend lines but here is picture based strictly on trendlines on 4 hour chart, the 2 blue lines are major trend lines from month and weekly chart. hey i am learning here so please correct me if i am missing anything obvious.
Right now price at 2.0079.
maybe a retrace down to 2.0029(or somewhere in that region)lower arrow where inner top from april and current TL intersect.
then move back up to 2.0104 or( or somewhere in that region)
and eventually to 2.0165.upper arrow , where the blue and white TL intersect
We have to keep in mind the MA , macd and news as well. but since we are in an uptrend this is what i see.
all comments welcome.
This is How I see it. Your lines are drawn good.
Just watch out for the 2.0135 high of 1991 and 1992 that has been tested 2 months ago.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf GbpUsd.pdf   241 KB | 1,296 downloads
  • #5,506
  • Jun 30, 2007 1:50pm Jun 30, 2007 1:50pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Thanks to all for putting the Mp3 audio to paper. I appreciate it and know it will help others to benifit. Can you send it to me so that I can put it together as one part the same as the 13 summary lessons so that people wont get confused.
Thanks again

E-mail [email protected]
Dear Mr Phillip, all i have to say to you is !!!Thankyou for helping and guiding me and so many of us through this jungle of forex. my best wishes are with you always.
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,507
  • Jun 30, 2007 1:59pm Jun 30, 2007 1:59pm
Quoting ammar2000a70
Hi all

This is another example of using 1H to support 4H and entering early to the trade .. Best wishes

Ammar
Hi Ammar,

Looks like you have the 1 hour entry understood nicely! Great Job!!
  • #5,508
  • Jun 30, 2007 2:26pm Jun 30, 2007 2:26pm
Quoting Digitaldean
Pips, Philip, Palmer and anyone interested.

Ive been backtesting something for the MACD system that i have been thinking about for a while now and it seem quite profitable.

Ive always wanted to add to my winning positions but never really got the MM down right along with entry, what i have been testing is adding to new positions that are over 80 pips in profit on the EURUSD. This is done at retraces to the 21 ema on the 1H. I have grown to really love the 1H retrace, If I miss the signal on the 4H due to the train leaving before i can hop on with good r-r then i keep an eye on the 1H.

I have backtested the 1H retrace on its own for a good period of time over the EURUSD & USDJPY, I like to always trade the touch of the 21 ema without using the MACD signal. I know this is not the rules but It works for me and after so much testing i have a good feel for the setups.
I use a 10 pip stop plus spread and i find that if the trade goes beond that then there is a very good chance that it will not play out, after 10 pips profit i move stop to b/e.
I took 3 of these this week 1st.b/e 2nd.+20 3rd+30.

SO anyway what do you guys & Girls think about the adding to positions??

Would be interested to know if Philip does this at all?

Right back to my charts.... OH MY GOD it friday the markets closed what am i going to do for 2 days now???? I know il back test

Enjoy your weekend and i hope next week brings some good trades for you all.

-D-
Hi D,

I too have been thinking about adding to positions, but haven't figured out if it is profitable w/the choppy market action for the pairs I trade (Cable & G/J...and Swissy is pretty range bound)....Funny that you posted this, because I was planning on testing on demo account. Also, I don't like holding trades too long, so...? I'm conflicted b/c I really don't know the answer yet (even though I watch the charts and think it will work...but, I question if I just want it to work). Also, I start w/multiple and scale out...which makes me wonder why I would add instead of hold ( if I was on a strong trend I could see it...but, the markets aren't giving that to me yet, on my time frame).

I like FXHermits longer term view for adding to lots....and that is really waiting for the long term TL price action and holding. Personally, I haven't evolved to that level of trading yet (but I think about it more). Still a "nervous" nellie about the longer term exposure to the market (It has taken tremendous emotional work for me to get up to holding a trade for 24 - 48 hours).

I'd be very interested in staying in the loop re:your success w/adding lots when the trade moves in your favor and retraces to the 21 (are you sure you don't want to add the MACD for extra confirmation that momentum isn't changing? Like that you keep the stop really tight too...).

talk to the charts...on the beach?....do you think our significant others will ever get interested in our trader talk? (mine hasn't yet...he glazes over.)...talking to the charts is good, it keeps us in sync? Maybe?? Get back to your backtesting....and go to the beach before the markets open!!

Talk to you later,
Pips
  • #5,509
  • Jun 30, 2007 2:30pm Jun 30, 2007 2:30pm
Hi Phillip,

Nadia, Ira and I are coordinating the files. We will send them to you via email so you can have them in 1 place. Ira has been a great "Boss" organizing this project!

Hope you have a great weekend!

Best to you,

Donna
  • #5,510
  • Jun 30, 2007 2:39pm Jun 30, 2007 2:39pm
Quoting Richard7
Speaking of backtesting......

I am still in the process of reading through the thread, having reached post #2000 so far. I haven't done much backtesting except a little fooling around, but I want to begin to seriously, possibly this weekend, and I have a question for you more experienced in this 4H method.

When you do your backtests, do you attempt to replicate current conditions at the time, such as pivot points, news events, etc., or do you test strictly on the MACD signals and price in relation to the MA's?

Thanks all, and have a good weekend.

Richard
Hi Richard!

You need to use the method that you are planning to trade when you backtest (otherwise you don't know how it really performs). I ignore news events (which should make me more confident in trading the system, eh?)...but, I draw my trendlines, identify candle patterns, look at the MA's and price, journal the behaviour, look at the MACD signal, write down the entry price, s/l level (identify that on the charts w/a horizontal line), Place TP's and BE level (this becomes an unknown variable of when exactly hit b/c I again use another horizontal line to see areas, and if they are hit before s/l then pips + are recorded. If the BE is hit w same candle as TP, I record BE b/c I can not be sure which was hit first). Once the trade is planned, I start moving ahead 1 candle at a time until the trade is completed). Basically, I try to treat it exactly as a live trade (b/c I can't see what the next candle is)...Backtesting is great...but so much easier than live trading b/c real money isn't on the line.

Great job on starting the testing process!

Pips

ps. All my testing of the system has been based on 4 hour charts only using the opening price of the candle following the signal as entry. Reason: b/c it is too unweildy to switch and coordinate the chart times of various TF.
  • #5,511
  • Jun 30, 2007 2:58pm Jun 30, 2007 2:58pm
Quoting Digitaldean
Pips, Philip, Palmer and anyone interested.

Ive been backtesting something for the MACD system that i have been thinking about for a while now and it seem quite profitable.

Ive always wanted to add to my winning positions but never really got the MM down right along with entry, what i have been testing is adding to new positions that are over 80 pips in profit on the EURUSD. This is done at retraces to the 21 ema on the 1H. I have grown to really love the 1H retrace, If I miss the signal on the 4H due to the train leaving before i can hop on with good r-r then i keep an eye on the 1H.

I have backtested the 1H retrace on its own for a good period of time over the EURUSD & USDJPY, I like to always trade the touch of the 21 ema without using the MACD signal. I know this is not the rules but It works for me and after so much testing i have a good feel for the setups.
I use a 10 pip stop plus spread and i find that if the trade goes beond that then there is a very good chance that it will not play out, after 10 pips profit i move stop to b/e.
I took 3 of these this week 1st.b/e 2nd.+20 3rd+30.

SO anyway what do you guys & Girls think about the adding to positions??

Would be interested to know if Philip does this at all?

Right back to my charts.... OH MY GOD it friday the markets closed what am i going to do for 2 days now???? I know il back test

Enjoy your weekend and i hope next week brings some good trades for you all.

-D-

Well done. On the 1hour that is the only strategy I will ever use. The retracement to the 21EMA and then the move away. This ia also a good approach to get on board in a strong trend.
Phillip

On stocks that is the strategy I am using on daily data.
  • #5,512
  • Jun 30, 2007 3:00pm Jun 30, 2007 3:00pm
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Phillip,

Nadia, Ira and I are coordinating the files. We will send them to you via email so you can have them in 1 place. Ira has been a great "Boss" organizing this project!

Hope you have a great weekend!

Best to you,

Donna
Thanks for all your effort.
Phillip
  • #5,513
  • Jun 30, 2007 4:03pm Jun 30, 2007 4:03pm
Hello to Phillip and all, just to inform you all that I have finished the transcript of L10 and sent it to Phillip and the transcript of L11 will be done by tomorrow.

So happy to see so much people on this thread and forum to help each other out in developping and understanding the great teachings of Phillip

Wishing to all a very great week-end

P.S. I have sent the transcript directly to Phillip as I think it will effectively help new people not to get confused to read the lesson in a disorganized order. This way, Phillip can attach them to the proper lesson.

Sincerly

Shreem
  • #5,514
  • Jun 30, 2007 5:02pm Jun 30, 2007 5:02pm
Quoting Digitaldean
Pips, Philip, Palmer and anyone interested.

Ive been backtesting something for the MACD system that i have been thinking about for a while now and it seem quite profitable.

Ive always wanted to add to my winning positions but never really got the MM down right along with entry, what i have been testing is adding to new positions that are over 80 pips in profit on the EURUSD. This is done at retraces to the 21 ema on the 1H. I have grown to really love the 1H retrace, If I miss the signal on the 4H due to the train leaving before i can hop on with good r-r then i keep an eye on the 1H.

I have backtested the 1H retrace on its own for a good period of time over the EURUSD & USDJPY, I like to always trade the touch of the 21 ema without using the MACD signal. I know this is not the rules but It works for me and after so much testing i have a good feel for the setups.
I use a 10 pip stop plus spread and i find that if the trade goes beond that then there is a very good chance that it will not play out, after 10 pips profit i move stop to b/e.
I took 3 of these this week 1st.b/e 2nd.+20 3rd+30.

SO anyway what do you guys & Girls think about the adding to positions??

Would be interested to know if Philip does this at all?

Right back to my charts.... OH MY GOD it friday the markets closed what am i going to do for 2 days now???? I know il back test

Enjoy your weekend and i hope next week brings some good trades for you all.

-D-
I've been looking at the 1 hour charts for a while about this. Re-entering an already established 4 hour trend on the 1 hour takes on a whole new meaning. You must have the time to monitor the charts enough and in some cases you have to think about being long and short the market at the same time. If the 4 hour is bearish (below the 89) and there is a retracement back to the 21 on the 1 hour, this could very likely be a Rb forming on the 4 hour. So, you go long the 4 hour because of the Rb and then the price hots the 21 on the 1 hour and now you go short because price is STILL under the 89 on the 4 hour. It's important to keep the 4 hour direction on the top of the list. It's equally important that your profit targets on the 1 hour need to be known before you get in that trade as well. We know what the targets on the 4 hour are but now we need to needle things down on the 1 hour. I draw the trendlines on the 1 hour as well. These are trendlines within trendlines if you will because you are now looking inside the 4 hour bars so to speak. The ability to trade multiple lots helps a lot. Having a 10 or 20 pip objective on a few lots then move the others to b/e and hope that those remaining open contracts will ride the 4 hour direction is a great way to add pips. But, you have to keep an eye on the 4 hour in the event that price keeps moving in the Rb or Rt direction. The 1 hour moves 'quicker' in terms of bars forming so I believe that the old saying of "know when to get out before you even get in" comes into play even more so. This goes for stop losses and profit objective. Plan your trade and trade your plan, period. I put this together rather quickly so it may be a little raw but the overall idea is there.

DigitalD:

As far as entering as soon as the price hits the 21...I still need a little confirmation like the MACD bar changing color in the direction of the 4 hour trend. For the most part because if the Rb or Rt the may be forming on the 4 hour keeps going, the 1 hour MACD color bar change will happen later. Hopefully too late. By that I mean that there has been a trend direction change on the 4 hr and you're currently riding that train. This 'forces' you not to enter on the 1 hour too soon. At least that's what I've been looking at so far...

Hope some of this helps...

"The sleeper has awakened!!!"
- Paul Atreides, Dune.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf 1hr.pdf   72 KB | 1,762 downloads
  • #5,515
  • Jun 30, 2007 5:31pm Jun 30, 2007 5:31pm
Hello to all again, just to inform you that the transcript of Lesson L11 is done and sent to Phillip.

I am just sayint this here on the thread so that nobody do it again.

Shreem
  • #5,516
  • Jun 30, 2007 7:43pm Jun 30, 2007 7:43pm
I would help you guys, but I'm very slow at typing.
  • #5,517
  • Jun 30, 2007 8:53pm Jun 30, 2007 8:53pm
Quoting Palmer
I've been looking at the 1 hour charts for a while about this. Re-entering an already established 4 hour trend on the 1 hour takes on a whole new meaning. You must have the time to monitor the charts enough and in some cases you have to think about being long and short the market at the same time. If the 4 hour is bearish (below the 89) and there is a retracement back to the 21 on the 1 hour, this could very likely be a Rb forming on the 4 hour. So, you go long the 4 hour because of the Rb and then the price hots the 21 on the 1 hour and now you go short because price is STILL under the 89 on the 4 hour. It's important to keep the 4 hour direction on the top of the list. It's equally important that your profit targets on the 1 hour need to be known before you get in that trade as well. We know what the targets on the 4 hour are but now we need to needle things down on the 1 hour. I draw the trendlines on the 1 hour as well. These are trendlines within trendlines if you will because you are now looking inside the 4 hour bars so to speak. The ability to trade multiple lots helps a lot. Having a 10 or 20 pip objective on a few lots then move the others to b/e and hope that those remaining open contracts will ride the 4 hour direction is a great way to add pips. But, you have to keep an eye on the 4 hour in the event that price keeps moving in the Rb or Rt direction. The 1 hour moves 'quicker' in terms of bars forming so I believe that the old saying of "know when to get out before you even get in" comes into play even more so. This goes for stop losses and profit objective. Plan your trade and trade your plan, period. I put this together rather quickly so it may be a little raw but the overall idea is there.

DigitalD:

As far as entering as soon as the price hits the 21...I still need a little confirmation like the MACD bar changing color in the direction of the 4 hour trend. For the most part because if the Rb or Rt the may be forming on the 4 hour keeps going, the 1 hour MACD color bar change will happen later. Hopefully too late. By that I mean that there has been a trend direction change on the 4 hr and you're currently riding that train. This 'forces' you not to enter on the 1 hour too soon. At least that's what I've been looking at so far...

Hope some of this helps...

"The sleeper has awakened!!!"
- Paul Atreides, Dune.
Hi, Palmer! This is a very nice tutorial you've made here, very profound and you definitely have a strong analytical skills. I have some of the same thoughts, but could have systematized them yet, and you did it very good. So thank you very much. I'm going to study this on weekend.
  • #5,518
  • Jul 1, 2007 7:58am Jul 1, 2007 7:58am
Quoting pips4uandme
Hi Ammar,

Looks like you have the 1 hour entry understood nicely! Great Job!!
Hi pips

Many thanks for you .. I spent more than 3 weeks to read 300 pages and just this week trying to start demo trading .. and I am sure this strategy will be my only the one which I will use it after more than 2 years of using many strategies .. many thanks phillips

Best Wishes
Ammar
  • #5,519
  • Jul 1, 2007 8:36am Jul 1, 2007 8:36am
A look ahead:

I took the Rt on the USDJPY that occurred on Friday (scaled in a few extra on the retracement after the initial entry) and after exiting a few lots at the 8/21 area and again at the 89, for the remaining contracts that I'm still short this is what I see...(Note to all English Teachers: Please don't flunk me because of that previous run-on sentence):

I went back to the monthly chart s/r levels to look at profit target areas and some interesting this came up. The red arrow is pointing to the intersection of two s/r lines, one of which that still acted as support on the 4 hour that was previous resistance on the daily about a year ago. The groovy thing here is that they both intersect exactly at the 200sma on the 4hr, kewlllll stuff. That 'should' act as major support if price heads that way. The only real issue I see with the chart is that the 4 hours did not close below the 89. It hit it, I exited a few, and it returned to the upside late Friday. Either way, I'm on the plus side for pips and that's what it's all about.

For anyone still in: Theres a red flag JPY eco news release today at 7:50pm EST USA so keep an eye on your positions...
Attached Image
  • #5,520
  • Jul 1, 2007 8:45am Jul 1, 2007 8:45am
Hi, Palmer! Nice analysis, you've made here. What do you think about E/U now, it shows RT on 1H, and not showing RT but close to it on 4H and highly overbought. Do you think it's a good setup for going short?
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