Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
- #12,903
- Edited 11:59am Mar 18, 2024 10:20am | Edited 11:59am
- Joined Oct 2017 | Status: Trader | 12,472 Posts
- #12,914
- Mar 23, 2024 9:29am Mar 23, 2024 9:29am
I've been playing around with this for about a year.
1. I think FPs form at roughly equal spacings
2. We can then average the spacing of a large cycle - orange/blue FP in this case
3. and measure that spacing to set the CMA length (tune it) to match the spacings
4. When a FP does not form near the expected point then that cycle is changing direction
5. The cycle that passes straight through and doesn't miss FPs is the full span CMA (orange cycle atm)
6. When price reaches the next expected full span FP it is halfway to its target
In this example price is expected to fall so that the full span cycle (orange) will pass through its expected FP.
If price doesn't fall, the orange CMA will not form a FP at the expected point and as in 4 above that will mean the orange cycle has just turned up and is no longer the full span cycle..
The half way point of the move should then form at the next expected orange FP - due in December this year. Once that price is known we can project a new long term target for sp500
- #12,919
- Mar 23, 2024 8:02pm Mar 23, 2024 8:02pm
{image} I've been playing around with this for about a year. 1. I think FPs form at roughly equal spacings 2. We can then average the spacing of a large cycle - orange/blue FP in this case 3. and measure that spacing to set the CMA length (tune it) to match the spacings 4. When a FP does not form near the expected point then that cycle is changing direction 5. The cycle that passes straight through and doesn't miss FPs is the full span CMA (orange cycle atm) 6. When price reaches the next expected full span FP it is halfway to its target In this...
This means the orange cycle is no longer dominating the Bitcoin swings, it has become a minor cycle and an even larger cycle is now dominating. This new cycle is likely to be of 1 magnitude higher, so when Bitcoin reaches the next orange line in late July 24, that should be the price midpoint of this new dominant cycle.
