USD/JPY Discussion

sweet sweet yen.

http://gloucestercitynews.typepad.co...s_up_two_3.jpg

a pro. such as myself.

It's around 122.80's should we take a short position?

hard to say.

long myself but that can get squashed mighty fast.

I am on short position, don't expect it to raise in short term.

It's kicking me, i hope it goes down under 122.80's.

Do you expect it to keep going up or start to go down again? If it goes up what would be limit of that?

I could see possibly 123.40.

I can stand it, if it will go back to under 123 after reaching 123.40.

Take a look at the Contrarian video and PPT.

BRAVADO, WATH DO YOU THINK ABOUT THESE??
"The sharp bounce from the 122.24 low is extending to 123.50, but difficulty is seen sustaining an immediate break, as hourly charts are already correcting overbought areas. The
123.69 high of 26 Jun should remain intact. Some settling back is looked for, with support down to 122.60/75. This area should underpin any deeper USD reactions."

I am not Bravado but let me tell few opinions i get from my experiences on Yen on last two days. Here's my opinion; Yen is GAY! Don't trust it.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...ef=patrick.net

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/core/i/t.gif BIS warns of Great Depression dangers from credit spree


By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 9:02am BST 25/06/2007


The Bank for International Settlements, the world's most prestigious financial body, has warned that years of loose monetary policy has fuelled a dangerous credit bubble, leaving the global economy more vulnerable to another 1930s-style slump than generally understood.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/gra...ncredit125.jpgThe BIS said China may have repeated the disastrous errors made by Japan in the 1980s

"Virtually nobody foresaw the Great Depression of the 1930s, or the crises which affected Japan and southeast Asia in the early and late 1990s. In fact, each downturn was preceded by a period of non-inflationary growth exuberant enough to lead many commentators to suggest that a 'new era' had arrived", said the bank.
The BIS, the ultimate bank of central bankers, pointed to a confluence a worrying signs, citing mass issuance of new-fangled credit instruments, soaring levels of household debt, extreme appetite for risk shown by investors, and entrenched imbalances in the world currency system.
"Behind each set of concerns lurks the common factor of highly accommodating financial conditions. Tail events affecting the global economy might at some point have much higher costs than is commonly supposed," it said.
The BIS said China may have repeated the disastrous errors made by Japan in the 1980s when Tokyo let rip with excess liquidity.
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"The Chinese economy seems to be demonstrating very similar, disquieting symptoms," it said, citing ballooning credit, an asset boom, and "massive investments" in heavy industry.
Some 40pc of China's state-owned enterprises are loss-making, exposing the banking system to likely stress in a downturn.
It said China's growth was "unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable", borrowing a line from Chinese premier Wen Jiabao
In a thinly-veiled rebuke to the US Federal Reserve, the BIS said central banks were starting to doubt the wisdom of letting asset bubbles build up on the assumption that they could safely be "cleaned up" afterwards - which was more or less the strategy pursued by former Fed chief Alan Greenspan after the dotcom bust.
It said this approach had failed in the US in 1930 and in Japan in 1991 because excess debt and investment built up in the boom years had suffocating effects.
While cutting interest rates in such a crisis may help, it has the effect of transferring wealth from creditors to debtors and "sowing the seeds for more serious problems further ahead."
The bank said it was far from clear whether the US would be able to shrug off the consequences of its latest imbalances, citing a current account deficit running at 6.5pc of GDP, a rise in US external liabilities by over $4 trillion from 2001 to 2005, and an unpredented drop in the savings rate. "The dollar clearly remains vulnerable to a sudden loss of private sector confidence," it said.
The BIS said last year's record issuance of $470bn in collateralized debt obligations (CDO), and a further $524bn in "synthetic" CDOs had effectively opened the lending taps even further. "Mortgage credit has become more available and on easier terms to borrowers almost everywhere. Only in recent months has the downside become more apparent," it said.
CDO's are bond-like packages of mortgages and other forms of debt. The BIS said banks transfer the exposure to buyers of the securities, giving them little incentive to assess risk or carry out due diligence.
Mergers and takeovers reached $4.1 trillion worldwide last year.
Leveraged buy-outs touched $753bn, with an average debt/cash flow ratio hitting a record 5:4.
"Sooner or later the credit cycle will turn and default rates will begin to rise," said the bank.
"The levels of leverage employed in private equity transactions have raised questions about their longer-term sustainability. The strategy depends on the availability of cheap funding," it said.
That may not last much longer.

If You Sold At 124.00 Hold That Order.
Im Holding Mine. After Tomorrow We Could See The Prices Hit 120.$$ Next Week....what Do You Think...?

Nope, YEN will not visit 120's area in near future. BOJ is not keen to review its interest rate. Maybe we will see that in Q4, 2007

From what I understand the next rate meeting isn't until August, so it's not likely official rates will be changed before then. Meanwhile (again reportedly) one of the main player sections that in the past have caused the yen to drop against the USD - the Japanese exporters - are pretty well hedged for the next few months. So that pretty much leaves carry trade players. Again (from the news) the big ones in Japan have sort of run out of room for small country paper (like NZD), so perhaps one might actually expect some upward pressure from there on the majors. A big *if" is US rates - will the Fed say something soft tomorrow (given the housing problem, the slowdown in the economy) or will they continue looking at core CPI and pretend everything is ok? OTOH, it seems a fair bit of Asian money is in the Dow, what happens if the Dow goes wobbly - will that get pulled? More questions than answers but - if it leads to increased volatility in the Yen against others, one can expect a general decline in carry trading. Which could, of course snowball...Think I'll retreat to my charts

good morning

oh, 245.68 , and try for 265.70

gbp jpy need to sleep

well i am hoping that UJ to hit the 122.00 mark in 1-2 days but as per a good forecast of the USD news i think it would not be possible what is your opinion.

No chance to move to 121-122.00 in this few days.

Maybe during NFP next Friday, I'll make my moves on YEN

Good forecast. Lately, only thinks that matter is carry trade.
DOW positive, YEN getting weaker and climb up the ladder towards 125 level.

An early sign of carry trade unwinding can be seen from China's and US equities market movements.
If China equities drop 8-10%, then Dow hit 300-400 pts, then we will see carry trades being unwind. Until then, I'll buy on dips and hold for 100-200 pips gain.

What was that 95% statistics about again?