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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #5,381
  • Jun 25, 2007 3:58am Jun 25, 2007 3:58am
No I will not take it.. its too messy... there is a big resistance/trendline just above, its too close to the 200... athough it is in the upper half of the up going channel.. so it might be a countertrend deal... but I wait what happens next and paybe take the next one which should be a TC signal..

Look at the summary files Philip has made some time ago.. he uses trendlines, they are very important together with other things:-)

elmer

Quoting RemingtonTJ
is anybody taking the EURUSD 4h MACD turn as a short signal or would you rather ignore this and buy because it's over the 200MA and support ~1,3436/7?

Do you use something like trendlines, support/resistance areas and/or Fibon. retracements at all? I found these traditional techiques of little use in FX compared to indicators like MACD.

Till
  • #5,382
  • Jun 25, 2007 4:11am Jun 25, 2007 4:11am
Quoting ira
I think Elmer you question is very good and I worry about that too.
Let me illustrate it with an example.
I open position and my SL is 25, my TP is 30. R:R=OK, I open it with 2 lots (or 0,2 - it's not important as we count in pips). Suppose the position goes in my favour so I close my 1 lot at +30 and the other put to b/e waiting for further move. But the price goes back so my second lot closes at b/e, or 5 - 10 pips profit. In total I have let's say +40.
What happens if my SL is hit - I get -50 loss on 2 lot.
Maybe I miss something too? I have read Cope's answer and I think his point was that we must have more profit thrades in average, I agree with this, but to my mind 50 -60% is not enough. Maybe there is something that I don't understand, please someone help. Thank you in advance!
nice ilustration ira,

IMHO,
with that illustration if u have 60% winning trade from every 10 trade

u will have

40*6=240 pip profit
50*4=200 pip loss

in average u still have 40pip plus,,

correct me if im wrong,
still in learning curve
  • #5,383
  • Jun 25, 2007 4:29am Jun 25, 2007 4:29am
Quoting elmer
No I will not take it.. its too messy... there is a big resistance/trendline just above, its too close to the 200... athough it is in the upper half of the up going channel.. so it might be a countertrend deal... but I wait what happens next and paybe take the next one which should be a TC signal..

Look at the summary files Philip has made some time ago.. he uses trendlines, they are very important together with other things:-)

elmer
are these the original files Philip delivered or additional ones? where can i find these?
  • #5,384
  • Jun 25, 2007 7:09am Jun 25, 2007 7:09am
BIL2205:

I think you stated in a previous post, I may be mistaken, that you are trading the London Session. I was doing that a few years ago. I'd get up and look for an entry using pivot points and a few technicals. I did well but the hours were killing me because at some point I had to go to my 'day job' and around 11am (I'm central time USA) I'd be dead tired. I had to give this up because it just wasn't healthy. Eventually I got in the mode of just because it's the London session I have to put a trade on because I have to get back to sleep, not a very good strategy there. Anyway, just curious....
  • #5,385
  • Jun 25, 2007 7:34am Jun 25, 2007 7:34am
Quoting Palmer
BIL2205:

I think you stated in a previous post, I may be mistaken, that you are trading the London Session. I was doing that a few years ago. I'd get up and look for an entry using pivot points and a few technicals. I did well but the hours were killing me because at some point I had to go to my 'day job' and around 11am (I'm central time USA) I'd be dead tired. I had to give this up because it just wasn't healthy. Eventually I got in the mode of just because it's the London session I have to put a trade on because I have to get back to sleep, not a very good strategy there. Anyway, just curious....
Yep u are right . i wake up at 4 am for london session. but if nothing is happening i dont force a trade.I did in the beggining but learned not to anymore. these hours work out for me bec my daughter is asleep and i dont have any interruptions.
I did go short on swissy by the TC on 1 hour but missed my TP 1.2270 by 1 pip 1.2271 so closed at -3pip. because i decided to catch a quick shut eye since sitting and watching my trade makes me nervous. any ways always looking forward to your posts.Good luck
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,386
  • Jun 25, 2007 7:39am Jun 25, 2007 7:39am
It's a lot easier to trade and not watch the charts I agree. I do try to steal a few on the 5min from time to time though. There might be more of that going on for me this week because of all the news vs. the 4hr method...we'll see.
  • #5,387
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:56am Jun 25, 2007 10:56am
go for the post Nr1.. there is a red line which says where Philip put those lessons, they are worth a lot..

elmer

Quoting RemingtonTJ
are these the original files Philip delivered or additional ones? where can i find these?
  • #5,388
  • Jun 25, 2007 12:46pm Jun 25, 2007 12:46pm
Quoting taunted
nice ilustration ira,

IMHO,
with that illustration if u have 60% winning trade from every 10 trade

u will have

40*6=240 pip profit
50*4=200 pip loss

in average u still have 40pip plus,,

correct me if im wrong,
You are right , but what bothers me, is that with multiply lots it's very hard to calculate R:R.
  • #5,389
  • Jun 25, 2007 1:00pm Jun 25, 2007 1:00pm
Quoting alexfot
Hi, Tam! I've read your old post and Ira's question, and IMHO and I believe according your vision UJ should go down to the nearest IB which is around 101. It looks that way to me, but it is so against common opinion, that I'm not sure about that. Everybody says it'll go up, so I'm lost here. But if it will go up, it definitely will go to 133.04. What do you think?
Btw did you post something about your IB/IT theory on this forum?
Hi Alex,

Now, when dollaryen dipped this morning, the "analysts" again show their prediction skills (Japanese Yen to Gain in a Correction Towards 122.15). It is easy to get confused, isn't it, Alex? I took my small profit today (and longs took theirs as well) and again watch for the short opportunity. The market is for everyone. Good luck.
  • #5,390
  • Jun 25, 2007 1:16pm Jun 25, 2007 1:16pm
Quoting tamkras
Hi Alex,

Now, when dollaryen dipped this morning, the "analysts" again show their prediction skills (Japanese Yen to Gain in a Correction Towards 122.15). It is easy to get confused, isn't it, Alex? I took my small profit today (and longs took theirs as well) and again watch for the short opportunity. The market is for everyone. Good luck.
It looks like it it should go down from monthly chart, but everybody says it should go up the only question fro them is how high. Let's watch what happens.
  • #5,391
  • Jun 25, 2007 1:56pm Jun 25, 2007 1:56pm
Quoting elmer
I have a problem with my money management, if anybody can instruct me a bit, I would be literally in debts.

I practice the 4H strategy, I am moderately successfull with choosing the right signals - thats maybe 6 out of ten are won.

The problem is that I take partial profits, usually at the level of 25 pips. then I let the second part of my position evolve. Sometimes it earns a bit more, sometimes not and it ends B/E.

But if my trade goes ill and hits my stoploss, my whole position goes negative.

In this way, although I win majority of the positions I open, my account goes down.

Any suggestions?... I gues Im missing something obvious... I like the point of fixing some profit, but in fact , it turns against me...

thank you all.

Elmer
I know there have been some suggestions regarding this question. I think the first thing should be that the stop should be less than or at least the same as the first TP, even by just a few pips.

How about this? Keep all the numbers the same except instead of 2 lots trade three. When the first TP is hit, take 2 lots instead of one. If the won/lost ratio is still 60%, let's assume that 5 of the 6 winners return to break even and are stopped out, and the other one keeps going and limits @ +50. Here are the numbers out of 10 trades:

4 losses----- 25 pips x 3 lots= 300pips

5 winners----- 30 pips x 2 lots= 300 pips

1 winner------ 30 pips x 2 lots + 50 x 1 lot = 110 pips

Total take for 10 trades = 110 pips


What do you think? These are just numbers pulled out of space, but I think you get the idea. I was having the same problem, pulling some of my profits, then getting stopped out break even. Three things are helping. The first is, I'm starting to make better entries; second, I'm trying to hang on till the stop is completely covered before taking first profit; and third, trading more than 2 lots, taking more than half at first profit.

I hope this helps and if my numbers are off or if there is some criticism, let me know.


Richard
  • #5,392
  • Jun 25, 2007 2:08pm Jun 25, 2007 2:08pm
Just a little somethin' somethin' here...

Looking at the Pivot Points with the daily $Yen. the 1 hour was having trouble breaking through the pivot (lavender) line and with the 4hr Rt still 'working', I sold when the 1hr failed to close above the pivot at the second blue dashed vertical line. The first blue dashed vertical line is the 00:00 bar. Just a little something to work with...
Attached Image
  • #5,393
  • Jun 25, 2007 4:17pm Jun 25, 2007 4:17pm
Quoting RemingtonTJ
is anybody taking the EURUSD 4h MACD turn as a short signal or would you rather ignore this and buy because it's over the 200MA and support ~1,3436/7?

Do you use something like trendlines, support/resistance areas and/or Fibon. retracements at all? I found these traditional techiques of little use in FX compared to indicators like MACD.

Till
I took the EU short last night, mostly because of the strong macd divergence.

If you have found S/R, trendlines, and fibs of little use in forex, then I can only guess you're misusing or misapplying them, because I have yet to see a successful forex trader who does not use them.
  • #5,394
  • Jun 25, 2007 4:29pm Jun 25, 2007 4:29pm
Hello, today Euro found support on the 200 ma and daily pivot(1.3438) and some noise on macd as well, the price sits on the 89 on the daily chart.at 1.3461.Any thought on going long if bounces of the 200 on 4 hour and off of 89 on the daily if a TC on MACD since price is still above 89.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.jpg Size: 76 KB
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #5,395
  • Edited Jun 26, 2007 2:27am Jun 25, 2007 6:07pm | Edited Jun 26, 2007 2:27am
Quoting JoshDance
I took the EU short last night, mostly because of the strong macd divergence.

If you have found S/R, trendlines, and fibs of little use in forex, then I can only guess you're misusing or misapplying them, because I have yet to see a successful forex trader who does not use them.
I too took the EU short for a quick 18 pips, but entered at 2 hrs before the London Open. MacD looked like a RT after breaking through 1.3462 (this number keeps poping up), but what allowed me to do this in my sleep was that the Price was above the Pivot Point and had just broken the M3 level, pointing towards the Pivot Point and ALL of the 4 Hr MAs. I was able to enter my trade and set the limit at the Pivot Point. My alert awoke me at 3:17...always nice to hear the chirp of baby pips. Only left 5 pips on the table, so I know it was a good bet.
Rick

Post Script:
Same trade happened today, but I couldn't get past the triangle on the 1 hr chart. Gave 20 pips back to them (net -2). 4 hr macd pointing down above the 200, 89, AND, 21. D'oh! Guess I need to go back to reading the rest of this thread (pg 290 and counting...) and spend the rest of the night in 5-Min land.
  • #5,396
  • Jun 25, 2007 10:28pm Jun 25, 2007 10:28pm
Philip;very cleverly explained and also very detailed
will papertrade until familiar with all details.
Thanks.
  • #5,397
  • Jun 26, 2007 12:33am Jun 26, 2007 12:33am
Quoting 919
Hi ammar
sorry
if it is possible 4 u please upload it to http://www.mediafire.com/
I have problem with rapidshare
Thanks 2 u ammar
Hi

Sure .. they are .. best wishes

Ammar

http://www.mediafire.com/?7q1mxx1mxfv

http://www.mediafire.com/?2yxmxn1f0tz

http://www.mediafire.com/?5nnfil1dsy7

http://www.mediafire.com/?ctd1t7dvj0u
  • #5,398
  • Jun 26, 2007 2:43am Jun 26, 2007 2:43am
Quoting ammar2000a70
Hi

Sure .. they are .. best wishes

Ammar

http://www.mediafire.com/?7q1mxx1mxfv

http://www.mediafire.com/?2yxmxn1f0tz

http://www.mediafire.com/?5nnfil1dsy7

http://www.mediafire.com/?ctd1t7dvj0u
Thanks ammar for your kindness
thanks 2 much 4 your work
best regards
  • #5,399
  • Jun 26, 2007 3:03am Jun 26, 2007 3:03am
Phillip,

Thanks again for teaching us this wonderful system. Tonight I was back in rhythm, and stayed patient. Took the early entry on the Orient Express (needed my fix )....took back most of the pips lost on my reckless ride last week. Coupled w/Swissy long and Cable Short (these are my three main pairs and they all had signals at important levels)....and today alone produced 130 pips (on a per lot basis)...Think there was much more scope for moves, but have to admit, I cut trades short b/c I wanted to bank the pips after being irresponsible last week.

Thank you again for all your hard work and efforts. Somewhere on the forum, a poster has a tag line "Standing on the shoulders of Giants." You are one of those Giants who has truly helped many see the way through the chaos! (So much knowledge, patience, discipline and humor!)

Happy Trading,

Pips
  • #5,400
  • Jun 26, 2007 3:08am Jun 26, 2007 3:08am
Hey Palmer,

Thank goodness I wore the lucky pink parachute pants....helped me stay focused on the market! Thanks for lending them to me... K....I'll never refer to this again (it's our secret, promise!).

Hope you caught many pips on the USD/JPY short! Maybe it's true...carry unwinding? I'm scared!

Have a good one!

Pips
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