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Quant's Probabilistic Idea's Method

  • #141
  • Sep 15, 2020 11:05am Sep 15, 2020 11:05am
Quoting Quants
Soon for GBPJPY we may have signal. {image}
Are these signals tradable?
  • #142
  • Sep 15, 2020 3:18pm Sep 15, 2020 3:18pm
Quoting Anusragger
{quote} Are these signals tradable?
As i already said. Once Price crossed the LH High or HL Low it have %98 probability to move +5 pip further.
Take it easy.
  • #143
  • Sep 15, 2020 3:19pm Sep 15, 2020 3:19pm
And it have atleast %86 probability to cross the high. It means if candle opens below of the Breakout candles high with X pips. You have tradeable distance. You can see that clearly. Even on H1 Break candles there are some room and tradeable signals.
Take it easy.
  • #144
  • Sep 16, 2020 11:54am Sep 16, 2020 11:54am
Quoting Quants
And it have atleast %86 probability to cross the high. It means if candle opens below of the Breakout candles high with X pips. You have tradeable distance. You can see that clearly. Even on H1 Break candles there are some room and tradeable signals.
If you share this indy we can all do some testing...
  • #145
  • Sep 16, 2020 12:03pm Sep 16, 2020 12:03pm
Quoting Anusragger
{quote} If you share this indy we can all do some testing...
I will share. I have just found that on EURJPY if H4 breakouts HL Low gets crossed or LH High gets crossed it have %99 probability to make +5 pip move further.

Need to make some adaptions and improvements then will drop the file. Even if its powerful indicator by it self it will never enough. Thats why i have other approaches such as zones , angles, volatility and some other type of average breakouts to enter my trade. But i have plans to make this HL LH breaks core of my strategy as trigger
Take it easy.
  • #146
  • Sep 16, 2020 12:05pm Sep 16, 2020 12:05pm
%91 if candle will reach to high or low
%90 if candle will make + 5 pip.

So there is %1 difference. It means if you trade once break candles high or low crossed you have %99 probability to have +5 pip move before opposite direction break happens. And you will find there are many candles kept going non stop . Some of them +50..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 49 KB
Take it easy.
  • #147
  • Sep 16, 2020 12:33pm Sep 16, 2020 12:33pm
Quoting Quants
%91 if candle will reach to high or low %90 if candle will make + 5 pip. So there is %1 difference. It means if you trade once break candles high or low crossed you have %99 probability to have +5 pip move before opposite direction break happens. And you will find there are many candles kept going non stop . Some of them +50.. {image}
But not necessarely in the next bar? Did you look at drawdown? After +1 pip price could retrace 50 pips and turn back to breakout again for +5
  • #148
  • Sep 16, 2020 12:41pm Sep 16, 2020 12:41pm
Quoting Anusragger
{quote} But not necessarely in the next bar? Did you look at drawdown? After +1 pip price could retrace 50 pips and turn back to breakout again for +5
Yes, Drawdown is there.. I can allso check the probability of making 5 pip in direction before making opposite 5 pips. But i am ok with drawdown if i have very low probability to close at loss. I can throw other filters and wait untill my exit pops up in a loss or after DD it reaches to profit.. I can consider that drawdowns even as discount and try to enter on those that been making drawdown and not reached to +5.. So lets say i have other X conditions and i see it is went against 30 pips. But the high +5 pip still not taken. So it gives me room to trade that opportunity and reward would be atleast +35. Right ? .. It must be managed not traded blindly and combined with other factors.
Take it easy.
  • #149
  • Sep 16, 2020 1:01pm Sep 16, 2020 1:01pm
Quoting Quants
{quote} Yes, Drawdown is there.. I can allso check the probability of making 5 pip in direction before making opposite 5 pips. But i am ok with drawdown if i have very low probability to close at loss. I can throw other filters and wait untill my exit pops up in a loss or after DD it reaches to profit.. I can consider that drawdowns even as discount and try to enter on those that been making drawdown and not reached to +5.. So lets say i have other X conditions and i see it is went against 30 pips. But the high +5 pip still not taken. So it gives...
Buying at a discount is always better. Maybe you can check the pullback before breakout/continuation and put it in a distribution table. Like Tro's
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #150
  • Sep 16, 2020 1:02pm Sep 16, 2020 1:02pm
Filters suck. They filter out half of the good opportunities.
  • #151
  • Sep 16, 2020 1:28pm Sep 16, 2020 1:28pm
The most interesting thread up to now for me.

One of my many counter-trend strategies start out with what I call a "dblKC Bo", or a double kc counter-breakout. And it s been helping me since the very beginning of my trading back in 2005 (remember Marketiva hahahah!).

Its very simple. Candle opens above 3rd keltner(22) line and closes below middle line.

Would be cool to see if it has any probabilistic value without my gazillion factors.

Cheers all and thanks Quant for this awesome thread ! really enjoying it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot (1428).png Size: 11 KB
If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #152
  • Oct 4, 2020 2:40am Oct 4, 2020 2:40am
Quoting dariuske
{quote} It's been a long time since I've posted here but have been watching the posts on FF now and then. Have to admit this is (I think) a very good one. I took the liberty of adjusting your indi to have an extra visual (automation) of the min and max treshold. Keep up the good work! {image} {file}
You have posted another useful indicator after 5 years.
Thank you.
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #153
  • Oct 4, 2020 3:14am Oct 4, 2020 3:14am
Quoting Quants
This is just nice. 0.50 MinTreshold have %89 of reversal probability on M1 Once it happens. It means %89 of the time for past 27 days it went lower than %50.. Without touching %75 end of the day. This actually nice. So if you enter when %50 of day average is hit, You will be profit atleast %1 of the day average before getting stopped out. Most of the time it can be more than %1 wins. Its all about if you can find Max OPPOSITE Distance. You can calculate your TP Targets more accurate. This comes to be spoon feeding and i dont want do it {image}
Even if you spoonfeed, there won't be many takers. So please go ahead if you can.

New traders are lured into the game with a promise of big returns and no work.
TP target : you collect enough statistics on hit rate of your desired TP size by looking at maximum 4 weeks data for scalping.
Now somebody has to do this work.
This indicator makes life easy.
https://www.forexfactory.com/thread/...9#post13196139
Practice makes a person perfect
  • #154
  • Edited 8:48am Oct 5, 2020 8:34am | Edited 8:48am
Im nearly completed my zones system. Its just so good right now with all those approaches. Will be trading and sharing my trades very nicely in couple of weeks.
Take it easy.
  • #155
  • Sep 16, 2021 9:48am Sep 16, 2021 9:48am
20.09.2021
Take it easy.
  • #156
  • Sep 17, 2021 2:04am Sep 17, 2021 2:04am
After 1 year of silence did you discovered anything new, good, useful about these probabilistic methods?
Thanks
  • #157
  • Sep 17, 2021 7:32am Sep 17, 2021 7:32am
I've got the free version- why don't you add correlation to it.
eur/usd - us dollar index - OPPOSITE CORRELATION
GBP/USD - EUR/GBP - OPPOSITE CORRELATION
  • #158
  • Sep 20, 2021 7:40am Sep 20, 2021 7:40am
Quoting Quants
Im nearly completed my zones system. Its just so good right now with all those approaches. Will be trading and sharing my trades very nicely in couple of weeks.
Waiting to see it....!!!
  • #159
  • Jan 16, 2024 8:06pm Jan 16, 2024 8:06pm
Quoting Quants
{image}H4 Candle close was a little further before that High break candle. Anyway that all looks sweet. This is how i read it {image}
This idea kind of holy grailed.
Take it easy.
  • #160
  • Jan 18, 2024 2:07am Jan 18, 2024 2:07am
Quoting Quants
{quote} This idea kind of holy grailed.
Good for you, nice to see some success and one of the few taking the time/effort to understand how this really works..
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