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Safe Hedging System - Daily Swap

  • #361
  • Jun 19, 2007 8:25am Jun 19, 2007 8:25am
Hi
well I have a 1 thing in my mind ;that buy 2 lots nzd/jpy instead of 1 lot gbp/jpy....
will it good .?I am not counted the exact lot sizes but just want to share the Idea.....
Thanks
  • #362
  • Jun 19, 2007 2:29pm Jun 19, 2007 2:29pm
Quoting king_a
Hi
well I have a 1 thing in my mind ;that buy 2 lots nzd/jpy instead of 1 lot gbp/jpy....
will it good .?I am not counted the exact lot sizes but just want to share the Idea.....
Thanks
You can test it when 2Day v6 is out. Donīt forget to place test results here.
"Hoe ur pips mate?" fxcarllos
  • #363
  • Jun 19, 2007 4:06pm Jun 19, 2007 4:06pm
Hello guys,

I was very excited about such a strategy for gathering swap, so I have made some maths based on history data which doesn't look very nice at first look. I might be wrong in my maths. This is what I did: I have calculated the number of pips won or lost by starting from different years considering the proportions from the first post of this thread. So thinking that you do these trades with 1 lot:
buy (+)gbp/jpy(-)
sell (-)gpb/usd(+)
sell (-)chf/jpy(+)
buy (+)usd/chf(-)

If you have started this in
1986.01.01, now your balance would be~ -19888 pips
2000.01.01 ->~ -3187 pips
2003.01.01 ->~ -3475 pips


And this even if gbp/jpy seems to go up forever... Now it could be that I didn't compute right(I am very surprised of these results), but at a first glance this, in a long term seems like gambling and I'm not so sure the swap would cover the losses in the long run. I don't wanna be combative, in fact I would love someone to prove me wrong and maybe show me where I am was wrong in my calculations(it is not so difficult to import the data for all 4 currencies in an excel spreadsheet and do the maths). The reason I started only from 1986 is that I didn't find any available previously history data for chf/jpy. I just used the open monthly prices for each pair, compute the differences m/m for each, etc.. Excel is great for this.
  • #364
  • Jun 19, 2007 4:14pm Jun 19, 2007 4:14pm
Quoting romanumisu
Hello guys,

I was very excited about such a strategy for gathering swap, so I have made some maths based on history data which doesn't look very nice at first look. I might be wrong in my maths. This is what I did: I have calculated the number of pips won or lost by starting from different years considering the proportions from the first post of this thread. So thinking that you do these trades with 1 lot:
buy (+)gbp/jpy(-)
sell (-)gpb/usd(+)
sell (-)chf/jpy(+)
buy (+)usd/chf(-)

If you have started this in
1986.01.01, now your balance would be~ -19888 pips
2000.01.01 ->~ -3187 pips
2003.01.01 ->~ -3475 pips


And this even if gbp/jpy seems to go up forever... Now it could be that I didn't compute right(I am very surprised of these results), but at a first glance this, in a long term seems like gambling and I'm not so sure the swap would cover the losses in the long run. I don't wanna be combative, in fact I would love someone to prove me wrong and maybe show me where I am was wrong in my calculations(it is not so difficult to import the data for all 4 currencies in an excel spreadsheet and do the maths). The reason I started only from 1986 is that I didn't find any available previously history data for chf/jpy. I just used the open monthly prices for each pair, compute the differences m/m for each, etc.. Excel is great for this.
You made a mistake. They sell the last pair of usd/chf.
But anyhow, it just works as long usdjpy is in an uptrend. Once it reverses the whole thing carries losses. (see my former post).
rgds
t.
always expect the unexpected!
  • #365
  • Jun 19, 2007 4:42pm Jun 19, 2007 4:42pm
Quoting tiku
You made a mistake. They sell the last pair of usd/chf.
But anyhow, it just works as long usdjpy is in an uptrend. Once it reverses the whole thing carries losses. (see my former post).
rgds
t.
Great, thx a lot. I have corrected it now and the results are way more human .. Now the results are:

starting from:

1986.01.01 ->~ -2540 pips
1995.01.01 ->~ 2962 pips
2000.01.01 ->~ 4109 pips
2003.01.01 ->~ 1677 pips


So,in did, it seems a good strategy considering that you average the prices and keep adding small trades, as long as jpy is weak. Even the negative first result is ok, for such a long period the swap would have covered the loss many times. And back then in those years the jpy situation was much different. Anyway, now the results look more appealing..
  • #366
  • Jun 19, 2007 8:51pm Jun 19, 2007 8:51pm
Hello Guys,

Keep up the good work. I wanted to keep you posted on my little hedging strategy. I posted before and I closed my last position last June 7 after 6-8 weeks in the market at a 33% return. I re-opened immediatly another hedge trade that is now at 5 % gain with swap payment daily. I have been doing this live for more than a year now, hope this encourages you to keep going.
Attached Image
  • #367
  • Edited 9:47pm Jun 19, 2007 8:56pm | Edited 9:47pm
Tiku,

Enclosed please find four (4) charts with vertical lines on 02.22.07. I am using this date because this is a good date to evaluate the performance of this four pair basket due to G/J dropping +1700 pips. As you can see with this basket we only incurred approximately -510 pip or 43% drawdown on a 10K/standard lots or 1K/mini lots account. Bear in mind that 1. we are averaging-in for 10 days therefore we usually get a better price and 2. which is the most important criteria of this strategy is we move G/J SL to BE+1 once we are +100 pips positive. Most likely the drawdown would have been a lot less than 43% due to criteria #1 and #2.

GBPJPY: -1,709
CHFJPY: +409
GBPUSD: +489
USDCHF: +301

Total: -510 Pips

Quoting tiku
You made a mistake. They sell the last pair of usd/chf.
But anyhow, it just works as long usdjpy is in an uptrend. Once it reverses the whole thing carries losses. (see my former post).
rgds
t.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.png Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: chfjpy.png Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.png Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.png Size: 18 KB
  • #368
  • Jun 20, 2007 4:08am Jun 20, 2007 4:08am
Please report bugs.
Please post forward test results.

Thanks

alex.pt
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 2day EA v6.mq4   51 KB | 707 downloads
File Type: pdf 2day EA v6.pdf   21 KB | 1,315 downloads
"Hoe ur pips mate?" fxcarllos
  • #369
  • Jun 20, 2007 4:20am Jun 20, 2007 4:20am
Hi
well I checked alpari and north finance both of them give a negative
swap for total of 4 pair.I mean when you minus the positive swap of Buy gbp/jpy from other pairs it will be even a negative digit...so what is the best broker for going for this 4 pairs ..??with plus 11 $ daily fxdd..??
  • #370
  • Jun 20, 2007 4:29am Jun 20, 2007 4:29am
Quoting Carllos
Please report bugs.
Please post forward test results.

Thanks

alex.pt
I set it up on my work PC (on 24/24) and will hopefully send you forward test
  • #371
  • Jun 20, 2007 10:16am Jun 20, 2007 10:16am
Quoting Carllos
Please report bugs.
Please post forward test results.

Thanks

alex.pt
Hi Carllos,
Thank you for your efforts, it seems Vs6 has the same problem as some of the earlier versions that opened and closed, is there anyone else experiencing this on IBFX?
It says under the experts tab invalid price order send function

Tks
Berdj
  • #372
  • Jun 20, 2007 12:16pm Jun 20, 2007 12:16pm
Quoting berdj
Hi Carllos,
Thank you for your efforts, it seems Vs6 has the same problem as some of the earlier versions that opened and closed, is there anyone else experiencing this on IBFX?
It says under the experts tab invalid price order send function

Tks
Berdj
???.. Itīs been working fine here for 2 days..plus all testing on severall accounts.. alpari, fxdd, ibfx
"Hoe ur pips mate?" fxcarllos
  • #373
  • Jun 20, 2007 12:32pm Jun 20, 2007 12:32pm
Quoting Carllos
???.. Itīs been working fine here for 2 days..plus all testing on severall accounts.. alpari, fxdd, ibfx
Carllos IT wasn't working perhaps because it was on the same account as another EA with different magic numbers. So perhaps magic numbers don't work well with this EA or the other EA.

I now have it working on its own
  • #374
  • Jun 20, 2007 1:24pm Jun 20, 2007 1:24pm
i can belive how simple this system is and effective...
"Abandon all hope, you who enter here" La Divina Commedia, Dante Alighieri
  • #375
  • Jun 20, 2007 6:22pm Jun 20, 2007 6:22pm
Quoting berdj
Carllos IT wasn't working perhaps because it was on the same account as another EA with different magic numbers. So perhaps magic numbers don't work well with this EA or the other EA.

I now have it working on its own
Better not mixed with other EAs. 2Day uses magic numbers and commentaries to "locate" the trades and shut them down when itīs needed. So, any other EA using magic numbers at same time will get into trouble.

Anyone else having problems?
"Hoe ur pips mate?" fxcarllos
  • #376
  • Jun 21, 2007 2:09am Jun 21, 2007 2:09am
Seems ok on my side, it placed 1 order on the different pairs and stayed there so it's ok so far.

Need to wait tonight to see if it places order with the correct size but there is no reason why it would not do so ^^
  • #377
  • Jun 21, 2007 1:29pm Jun 21, 2007 1:29pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2106.jpg Size: 82 KB
"Hoe ur pips mate?" fxcarllos
  • #378
  • Edited 5:30pm Jun 21, 2007 5:06pm | Edited 5:30pm
Quoting romanumisu
I hear that there are brokers which do not offer or request interest for trading, like { deleted } . So why wouldn't one hedge on two brokers, one that offers interest and another who doesn't? Anybody could open equals accounts, let's say 5000$ on { de;eted }and 5000$ on oanda, then open buy g/j on oanda and sell g/j on {deleted}, same amounts. On he doesn't pay swap, but on oanda he gets swap. And if the accounts get unbalanced, he just takes from one account and suply the other.
What's wrong in this scenario?
This has been discussed a lot on forums.. Some people say there are pros and cons. Some say, that if you stay on a favor swap position for too long the broker will close your account. Some say, that the investment on 2 accounts doesnīt give you enough returns. I really donīt know. But iīd love to hear from someone who does it on real accounts.
"Hoe ur pips mate?" fxcarllos
  • #379
  • Jun 21, 2007 5:07pm Jun 21, 2007 5:07pm
Sorry, that broker has spammed the hell out of us and is not accepted here.

Moderator
  • #380
  • Jun 21, 2007 5:12pm Jun 21, 2007 5:12pm
Quoting smjones
Sorry, that broker has spammed the hell out of us and is not accepted here.

Moderator
damn.. youīre fast!! How can you be so fast jones?
"Hoe ur pips mate?" fxcarllos
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