Money is merely a by-product of one's skills as a trader - M. Douglas
looks at though it's running out of steam. the German ZEW survey was quite disappointing also. and let's not forget - the fed is about to raise rates soon. I'm not so sure about the ECB anymore: i think they're dragging their feet. i am short also 
looks at though it's running out of steam. the German ZEW survey was quite disappointing also. and let's not forget - the fed is about to raise rates soon. I'm not so sure about the ECB anymore: i think they're dragging their feet. i am short also
always expect the unexpected!
- #1,711
- Jun 19, 2007 10:21pm Jun 19, 2007 10:21pm
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Chasing Trends | 2,339 Posts
another short opened up. it's getting way ahead of itself, and fundamentals just don't support it. The fed is about to raise rates (perhaps by 0.50 per cent) next week - dollar supportive. also, the bond yield drama is not yet over - yet more dollar support {EUR/USD}. looks increasingly likely that the ECB will not be raising rates soon. a bloodbath for the euro?
- #1,716
- Jun 20, 2007 4:40am Jun 20, 2007 4:40am
- | Commercial User | Joined Jan 2007 | 1,442 Posts
...strange, i cannot believe otherwise: why on earth would anyone bet against a 'strong' currency like the greenback, especially in these risk-averse times?? bizarre...
If you short a rising market, you will eventually get carried out - I speak from experience
Fair enough, if price rejects these levels, then a short could be on the cards - it's just that so far, I can't see it has.
I suppose at the end of the day, one man's floor is another mans ceiling - or so the quote goes.
I can see the makings of a triple top on the lower timeframes so price may well fall but I also see a (very close) two bar high on the daily which would give me a chance to add to my long on a breakout if price consolidates around 3400 today.
Good luck and hope I've not caused any offence to anyone.
Tom
Because the euro is rising against the greenback and generally I've found that price overrules fundamentals - certainly in the short term.
If you short a rising market, you will eventually get carried out - I speak from experience
Fair enough, if price rejects these levels, then a short could be on the cards - it's just that so far, I can't see it has.
I suppose at the end of the day, one man's floor is another mans ceiling - or so the quote goes.
I can see the makings of a triple top on the lower timeframes so price may well fall but I also see a (very close) two bar high on the daily which would give me a chance to add to my long on a breakout if price consolidates around 3400 today.
Good luck and hope I've not caused any offence to anyone.
Tom
What exactly makes a currency (be it the greenback or any other) "strong"? the only one to dictate such statement is the chart and price. Fundamentals are good if you trade very long term, but otherwise you cannot go against price/chart/trends.
- #1,720
- Jun 20, 2007 5:11am Jun 20, 2007 5:11am
Money flows towards expectations of higher yield for obvious reasons.
Recent data out of the US has shown a lower than expected core CPI and falling sales of cheaper new homes, thus lowering expectations of a USD rate increase...dollar negative.
Should the US economy deteorate more rapidly, then equities would plunge and consequent unwinding of the carry trade with rapid strengthening of JPY could result in EUR/JPY falling at a faster rate than USD/JPY in which case EUR/USD would fall.
Today though equities are rising so "Armageddon" will have to wait for another day. My advice would be to always keep one eye on equity prices.
I've been long EUR/USD since Friday's CPI report.
Must admit though that interpretation of data seems to result in changing sentiment by the week!!
Recent data out of the US has shown a lower than expected core CPI and falling sales of cheaper new homes, thus lowering expectations of a USD rate increase...dollar negative.
Should the US economy deteorate more rapidly, then equities would plunge and consequent unwinding of the carry trade with rapid strengthening of JPY could result in EUR/JPY falling at a faster rate than USD/JPY in which case EUR/USD would fall.
Today though equities are rising so "Armageddon" will have to wait for another day. My advice would be to always keep one eye on equity prices.
I've been long EUR/USD since Friday's CPI report.
Must admit though that interpretation of data seems to result in changing sentiment by the week!!