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Manipulated Markets: A Strategy To Profit

  • #61
  • Dec 27, 2023 8:03am Dec 27, 2023 8:03am
Hi Makingmoves,

This is masterclass trading.
I hope to learn your complete trading strategy.
Maybe you can give some more information about Sierra Chart and CME FX Future data.
Especially what kind of paid service you are using.

Thanks a lot and keep up the good work!
  • #62
  • Dec 27, 2023 7:52pm Dec 27, 2023 7:52pm
hi all. new to site old to markets. contextual challenge - go research why futures and spot were created. from there see active progression. algos are not new in any way. data has always existed to prove this. if you see 1 big market and several mini markets held/trapped inside the big one, then easy to see cfds spot futures as they are. people dont know business so obsess over data and try to overcompensate. its bad thinking and creates bad beliefs and leads to bad goals. useless to use data if it cant teach you things about future. said to help people improve.
protein for breakfast !
  • #64
  • Dec 28, 2023 12:44am Dec 28, 2023 12:44am
Quoting oochiwaawaa
hi all. new to site old to markets. contextual challenge - go research why futures and spot were created. from there see active progression. algos are not new in any way. data has always existed to prove this. if you see 1 big market and several mini markets held/trapped inside the big one, then easy to see cfds spot futures as they are. people dont know business so obsess over data and try to overcompensate. its bad thinking and creates bad beliefs and leads to bad goals. useless to use data if it cant teach you things about future. said to help...
You have really failed to make your point here, this thread is for volume data junkies evaluating footprint signals on 6EUH23.
Data is everything, Algo’s are always involving and the brokers don’t manipulate the market feeds in Futures Markets.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #65
  • Dec 28, 2023 4:41am Dec 28, 2023 4:41am
Quoting oochiwaawaa
eg {image} person sees this but not know why or how. goes digging and uses ff or internet or whatever to find out. never thinks to ask if cfds are /are not foreign exchange spot or what they based on in free markets. not what banks or central banks see and do. their priorities are different so readouts are different. now look at this one {image} retail software line 'fills in the blanks'. same situation different readout. maybe this helps.
MACD is no part of the thread and hope thread starter cut fast as possible the distraction here. It is one of the valubale threas so far and hope it will not turn in a mess so fast.
Sorry, but i have seen so many threads turning bad.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #66
  • Dec 28, 2023 9:00pm Dec 28, 2023 9:00pm
Quoting MichaelSch
{quote} MACD is no part of the thread and hope thread starter cut fast as possible the distraction here. It is one of the valubale threas so far and hope it will not turn in a mess so fast. Sorry, but i have seen so many threads turning bad.
but isnt that really the point here. i have read through this thread sofar and then i offered a view that served as a reaction creator. the type of reaction that is exactly the same as what orderflow trading is. reactionary. if there aint no data there aint no trade. macd is just data compiled. so is orderflow. so while thread impressive to scroll through really nothing different to chart hopping ime. you need hard data. not to be confused with raw data or economic data. hard data. hard facts that entench this strategy and mesh it with the free markets. so with this threads way you're not seeing whats there only whats offered to you. the rest you have to summize or guess or estimate. again ime no different to chart hopping. like a warm safety blanket. i believe guys you need to read again what is put here on thread.

now you can choose to delete this post but the truth is the truth. more experienced people have already visited this notion and the dreamers remain with it but others see whats missing and go find it.

for eg

[the sum of 2 price drives] / (stacked limit ends x ROC/hr) + (long open positions/(2x short positions)

price drive for pa specs is a mark up or down that requires adjusting so the rounding off process is smoothed out. this is called market managing. in old days look at chart and see many large sized gaps. now with more money in free markets (not becoz more tech) gaps fill more capably and market management is better. a stacked limit is not iceberg orders as some think. nor manipulation. its management. retailers and entity traders are always so self important in beliefs. never see that you have to be given enough to hang yourself. if roc is lagging then change is slow and this requires different strategy for management. you wouldnt know this by staring at chart or orderflow. you need to look at how business is done. long and short positions are advertised and so end up on your screen. the / or x effect means you have to use hard data not what is given/offered. hd is available in many sources. for this threads strategy type to be effective you have to assume you know enough, which you dont. free markets access in and out foreign exchange all year. so to assume imbalance or positive positions you have to also assume your tools are at the cutting edge, which they cannot be.

eg.

[ROC x (total long positions x total longs ASPP (at same price previously) - "fill in time horizon price movement here in points/pips/base points etc"]

or short positions depending on scenario. thats orderflow in a nutshell. no big secret and no need for "special data" or software.

old saying in markets - those who make deep footprints will be eaten. ever heard that ?

so nothing new under sun.

edge = convenience not confidence.

i hope you dont discard this post. could be helpful to people. just stop dressing fads up as different.

as to context. loooong way to go to see use of this as is.
protein for breakfast !
  • #67
  • Dec 28, 2023 9:44pm Dec 28, 2023 9:44pm
using orderflow and being too rigid is counterproductive.

out of the money. in the money. off the money.
this is how orderflow began.
out of or in - at edge and in the middle. off is when you chase. transfer your use of OF to think like a "use" instead of a trader. traders dont last.
protein for breakfast !
  • #68
  • Dec 29, 2023 3:07am Dec 29, 2023 3:07am
Quoting oochiwaawaa
{quote} but isnt that really the point here. i have read through this thread sofar and then i offered a view that served as a reaction creator. the type of reaction that is exactly the same as what orderflow trading is. reactionary. if there aint no data there aint no trade. macd is just data compiled. so is orderflow. so while thread impressive to scroll through really nothing different to chart hopping ime. you need hard data. not to be confused with raw data or economic data. hard data. hard facts that entench this strategy and mesh it with the...
Thread starter has named tools and you came up with MACD. Why? Can you respect given details and discuss on basis of this?
No you can not. Point. I wish forexfactory.com would have the option to let the thread starter confirm first before a post goes public, but it is not yet manageable.
Perfection is the enemy of good enough!
  • #69
  • Dec 29, 2023 3:19am Dec 29, 2023 3:19am
Quoting MichaelSch
{quote} Thread starter has named tools and you came up with MACD. Why? Can you respect given details and discuss on basis of this? No you can not. Point. I wish forexfactory.com would have the option to let the thread starter confirm first before a post goes public, but it is not yet manageable.
using a tool and understanding a tool are different. if all you can see is macd, ok. well all i see when you show OF standalone is data..... waiting to be used correctly. its not a business approach its guesswork. ever heard of spatial markets? probably not. ofcourse you would ignore youre a child. playing with a toy. while others do real things. the implication here is that OF + pa + pattern synonyms = a strategy. its known as the blender effect. nothing new. if the thread starter wants actually learn, then you don't learn from people who don't challenge the usual. people like you.

children should refrain from using a keyboard. a chart exchanged for OF is not an improvement. cold hard facts. hybrids are a dead blow too.

i wish kiddies would stay out of the adult section. that's what retail fx is, the kiddies section.

the usual though right. fools deny. adults learn and improve. have fun.
protein for breakfast !
  • #70
  • Dec 29, 2023 4:04am Dec 29, 2023 4:04am
a great way to know your competition and leaders

https://www.goldmansachs.com/disclos...on-Summary.pdf

whys this necessary?

people with losing strategies always live in denial of what they really do. reacting to data is hardly a strategy worth pursuing. the thread starter has done more talking about OF and other things that are lower level retail identifiers. without any real detail of what was talked about in 1st posting. thats why this necessary.

there is pre-production. production. post-production. warehousing and distribution cost. cost+ pricing. vendor pricing. retail pricing. so as i said trying to dig a hole from the bottom up, very hard work for so little. and as i said, in or out or off the money.

data jockeys always claim they have what they need. but data is in flux. its not yours. you have no control of it. smells like a losing strategy to me. youre forever chasing.

another good one to read and learn to understand what things mean and are....

https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quot...nual/cash-flow

you'd have to be either stupid or just plain ignorant to believe the banks etc 'just buy and sell or block'. this is not an attempt to troll here. this is the type of detail people learn to read when they move away from website opinions and strategies. and if you still dont believe then read the title of this thread. otherwise it should be titled "another attempt to find the ghost in the trading machine". have fun.
protein for breakfast !
  • #71
  • Dec 29, 2023 6:40am Dec 29, 2023 6:40am
Quoting oochiwaawaa
{quote} but isnt that really the point here. i have read through this thread sofar and then i offered a view that served as a reaction creator. the type of reaction that is exactly the same as what orderflow trading is. reactionary. if there aint no data there aint no trade. macd is just data compiled. so is orderflow. so while thread impressive to scroll through really nothing different to chart hopping ime. you need hard data. not to be confused with raw data or economic data. hard data. hard facts that entench this strategy and mesh it with the...
Hi O

No one asked for or appreciates your opinion here, its a data based trading system that makingmoves trades with and its highly profitable one indeed.
I know because I traded this strategy for a few years - it does takes time to learn but the rewards are great.
Lastly, your'e not actually aware on who's trading against you and it's not Goldman Sach's, you need to go back 13 years to find out who.

Great thread here, I challenge anyone to give this strategy a go because you will be rewarded.
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #72
  • Dec 29, 2023 8:43am Dec 29, 2023 8:43am
I am interested in the interpretation of the footprint (or are they called order flow) charts. Could we discuss this point in more detail?
I have the opportunity to use Atas with cryptos and would like to practice a bit.
I have read the thread but am still unsure here.
  • #73
  • Edited 4:27pm Dec 29, 2023 11:28am | Edited 4:27pm
Quoting netsrac
I am interested in the interpretation of the footprint (or are they called order flow) charts. Could we discuss this point in more detail? I have the opportunity to use Atas with cryptos and would like to practice a bit. I have read the thread but am still unsure here.
Hi netsrac, its good you are interested in order flow, possibly the most valuable tool in my trading. Before I go into the subject further, I just want to say a big thank you to Rick and Michael for being here and quickly shutting down that nonsense, now lets get back on track!

Order Flow is the general name for viewing orders coming into the market, footprint chart refers to the actual charts (standard price open/close and high/low) with volume data within or next to it. If I remember correctly, the term 'footprint' or 'footprint chart' is actually copyrighted! This is why the software/service I use calls them 'numbers bars'. Remember this when looking for tools, they go by different names! To then go even more specific, the names of the volume data we want to visualize (on a footprint chart) are mainly bid x ask imbalances, total volumes and delta/cumulative delta. These are the basics you need to understand when you start actively analysing order flow. You however, might want to start by researching the features and names for all things order flow, including aggressive and passive participants in one chart and how to differentiate them etc. That will be beyond the scope of this reply, for now.

I should say, learning to read order flow takes time and hard work. That's to say, if you think about standard candlestick charts, how many different ways are there to read it? The answer is infinite, everyone has a different understanding of what a singular candlestick means or what a HH - HL - HH - HL (basic uptrend definition) means, let alone how they then interpret it. I bring this up because order flow is objectively more complex than standard price data and thus the subsequent interpretation of order flow is much more complex than regular candlestick charts for example (and look how many different ways traders analyse them as is!), of which there is no correct way to interpret. There is no exact ruleset on how to interpret this data, anything I say may be not important to another order flow trader and so on. This is where I think there could be so much value in a thread of order flow traders, each giving a run down of what they look for and the reasoning behind it. From there we could get an understanding of what is and is not a popular confirmation etc but in the meantime I'll just give you a general run down of what I look for and the reasoning behind it.

Example scenario one (for context): Price is coming down, into a price zone that has not been traded since an aggressive reversal took place, this is my long setup. That's it, now for simplicity, I either want to confirm or reject this trade setup and either enter or do nothing respectively.

When I look to the footprint chart, in this scenario, I will be looking for one thing in particular and you'll notice the logic as to why. That being further aggressiveness coming back into the market, in the area of past aggression! So how do we actually look for this? By looking for bid x ask imbalances. What are bid x ask imbalances? One side of the market is much stronger than the other (ask is 300% or larger than the bid) and shows aggression. If imbalances are present with a positive delta (strong buyers) that's all I'd need to confirm, there's no need to make it overcomplicated although you can. If there was no imbalances, then no trade to be taken.

Example scenario two (for context): I am bullish. Price is coming down, into a previous day's Point Of Control (P.O.C - heaviest traded price level of the day) and I want to buy, but I also want to confirm the idea.

In this example, a multitude of confirmations could be used because I already have a view on what will happen, I'm just looking for an entry confirmation. However say this is a trade setup, according to my trading strategy, I will mainly be looking for one thing. As with the previous example, the confirmations are relevant to the context. I would want to see heavy volumes (ideally on both bid x ask) on and around the P.O.C, showing large market participants are still present and transacting there and thus are likely to stop price from moving further before these orders are all filled.

Example scenario three (for context): Price is rising, its just about to come into contact with a classic important resistance level. As I said, all can be used but one order flow confirmation logically jumps out and would confirm this trade perfectly.

I would want to see large passive participant's entering short at the resistance zone. They have been watching this price level (just like you) and have been waiting patiently to enter via limit orders at these levels. This confirms that the level is truly important and its not just a support/resistance area you have created out of thin air. Limit orders also have the ability to stop a market in its tracks so its also another extra buffer between your entry and stop loss!

The logic between context and confirmations are the same! Previous area of price aggression - confirm via current aggression. Previous most heavily traded price level - confirm via significant heavy volumes (possibly the most significant of the current day) and so on.

For the first two examples, I (ideally) want delta in my direction as put in the most basic terms, positive delta equals strong buyers and vice versa. Cumulative delta is the same but tracks the sum of all delta changes throughout the day. The reason why I say the first two only, is that the third talks about limit orders and they distort the deltas use in this type of analysis. This is where I loop back to the start and say that I'm sure each individual order flow trader will have different favourite confirmations and other ways to use delta and so on. I recommend you strive to research and study more on the matter in every way possible!

I hope this helps clear some stuff up and stimulates some further ideas for you. I have noted that I should dedicate a whole series of posts solely to the understanding and analysis of order flow. For now however, any other questions or queries just let me know!
Seeking Fair Value
  • #74
  • Dec 29, 2023 2:12pm Dec 29, 2023 2:12pm
Quoting netsrac
I am interested in the interpretation of the footprint (or are they called order flow) charts. Could we discuss this point in more detail? I have the opportunity to use Atas with cryptos and would like to practice a bit. I have read the thread but am still unsure here.
Hi netsrac

If I can add a few comments to what makingmoves has just said, because I have traded Crypto"s on an footprint chart later for about 6 months last year.

The biggest issue is the Crypto Future markets are very young, and mostly have very little volume going through the order book. This creates Footprint charts with many gaps on any price bar except for those brief periods where something is happening. Unless you have 100 contracts a minute running through your Footprint chart, its untradable.

Therefore if you set alerts for 100 contracts a minute on say Globex Bitcoin Futures, your safe to trade like makinmoves.

Another idea is to trade from a broker like Bybit and use there API connection onto your Future's Platform and trade them if their volume is higher.
I traded with API connection from Bybit onto the Quantower Platform end of last year when the Crypto market was very healthy, but the volume collapsed taking my profits with it. I haven't trade Crypto since but will the day Volume markedly improves.

I'll stick with NQ / ES but also trade EURUSD Futures often because its JUST NICE TO TRADE

Cheers
Trading thin liquidity at the boundary of the charts
  • #75
  • Dec 29, 2023 3:10pm Dec 29, 2023 3:10pm
Very interesting thread!

This strategy is very similar we trade it in a prop firm…biggest difference is we trade it on large stocks like AMD, TSLA, NVDA etc.
we also use Volume Profile, OrderFlow, T&S and live nasdaq data. Also relevant- the aggressiveness how we move into LVN zone before rejecting is relevant as well as relative volume (at the trading day) and how much how the daily ATR is already „used“. Also interesting- how much „liquidity“ is above/below the rejection.

Will follow this thread
all the best.
  • #76
  • Dec 30, 2023 11:54pm Dec 30, 2023 11:54pm
hi,Makingmoves

I think this game is to clear specific levels/zones. The price moves to buy/sell absorption zones like a magnet attracts something.

Food for thought
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #77
  • Dec 31, 2023 10:12am Dec 31, 2023 10:12am
Quoting giselle1723
hi,Makingmoves I think this game is to clear specific levels/zones. The price moves to buy/sell absorption zones like a magnet attracts something. Food for thought {image} {image}
Hi Giselle, good to see you again!

The type of trading you are describing can definitely be traded effectively via order flow, as I'm sure you already know. The highlighted 'buying absorption zones' on your chart, how do you objectively determine those (I think we missed this)? If I am wanting to see absorption/exhaustion, I will load up an identical time period cumulative delta candlestick chart to that of my standard price chart, this allows be to see divergences that can hint towards either absorption or exhaustion is taking place.

Essentially for me, if price is making a new high but cumulative delta is not, that is exhaustion taking place and the move could soon run out of steam and reverse. The opposite is if price has not made a new high, but cumulative delta has, that is absorption and there is a good chance that (in this example) sellers are absorbing all buy orders and price will soon sell off. The following picture gives a visual explanation of this:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Cumulative delta absorption exhaustion.png Size: 33 KB

Both are reversal type situations but with different meanings behind them and different ways to identify! I know you probably know all this giselle but I think its valuable enough to post for everyone to see on the thread and thank you for bringing it up! I'll link a website with some of the best info I've seen on this but don't fall for anything their selling, just get the value and go.

Now to go into what else you were talking about, the way you described prices tendency to revert back to these places is very interesting and not something I have done much studying on in terms of absorption so I would be interested to see if you can expand on this topic. However I do know of a similar style of trading via order flow and that's expecting price to come back and fix areas of 'unfinished business' (UB), these can be spotted via volumes on both bid x ask at the top/bottom of a footprint. This is an area of price inefficiency and the market tends to come and complete the auction being the efficient market it is.

Lastly, I am a Auction Market Theory trader so naturally I am always looking for opportunities where price is due to head back into balance and these areas often attract price like a magnet in the correct context.

Thank you for the food for thought, I hope I could return some.
Seeking Fair Value
  • #78
  • Dec 31, 2023 10:27am Dec 31, 2023 10:27am
Quoting TKrake
Very interesting thread! This strategy is very similar we trade it in a prop firm…biggest difference is we trade it on large stocks like AMD, TSLA, NVDA etc. we also use Volume Profile, OrderFlow, T&S and live nasdaq data. Also relevant- the aggressiveness how we move into LVN zone before rejecting is relevant as well as relative volume (at the trading day) and how much how the daily ATR is already „used“. Also interesting- how much „liquidity“ is above/below the rejection. Will follow this thread all the best.
Hello TKrake, thank you for stopping by the thread and participating!

It's always great to find another order flow trader and one who obviously knows their stuff. Thank you for the ideas, I have planned for a long time to test this strategy on many different markets, I've added NASDAQ to the list!

As I've hinted several times on this thread, I study and trade Auction Market Theory (AMT) and these LVA areas are very significant! We can objectively see these areas of low volume and aggressiveness as 'single prints' on a market profile chart which is then named 'excess'. I talked about it in my last post on the AMT thread but here's a quote in that post from the author of the first AMT/Market Profile books:

“The importance of any type of excess is that it represents an area that should serve as support or resistance to price in the future. As long as conditions have not changed markedly, the other timeframe participant that drove price so vehemently should react similarly at those same price levels. This is why a tail can be used to estimate range potential, for it is a reliable benchmark by which to gauge future activity.”

I do too look for aggression as we head into these areas in general and some of my best trades come from such setups! I feel like your ATR addition has great potential in filtering out bad trend continuation trades but not relevant for mean reversion style trades.

Thanks again for checking out the thread and the great reply,

MM
Seeking Fair Value
  • #79
  • Jan 6, 2024 11:17am Jan 6, 2024 11:17am
Quoting makingmoves
{quote} Trades from the start of 2023 (#9) Continuing from where I left off, here is another batch of trades, with volume profile context and order flow conformations for each one! At this point I have posted a lot of trades and general context/analysis for you, the reader and trader, to understand. As such I am going to do one more batch from old journaled trades to make it an even #10 and then go from there. As with every batch of trades thus far, they are all solely on EURUSD (EUR Futures). I've been thinking ahead for the future of the thread...

Trades from the start of 2023 (#10)


Hello everyone, I hope you've all had an amazing New Years and a profitable first week of 2024! As promised here's the final post #10 on past trade breakdowns from my old trade journal associated with this strategy. As always there's a volume profile chart screenshot for context and in depth order flow screenshots for confirmation and trade entry's! All of these trades and all subsequent 9 posts are all on EUR Futures which 100% positively corelates to spot EURUSD.

18/04/2023 - 10:05AM (1 Trade) +1.75%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: I - B profile.PNG Size: 9 KB

Context: At the VAH of yesterday's thin ‘I’ profile and/or the third high volume cluster of yesterday's 'b' profile.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: I - B profile confirmation.PNG Size: 32 KB

Confirmation: As price was rising bullish candles closed underneath large imbalances (this could be passive sellers rather then aggressive buyers) as price reached the roof, a doji appeared with heavy columns within (indecision and accumulation) the next bearish candle (PA confirmation) had 4 inverted imbalances and a negative delta.

Notes / Warnings: 25 pip stop for a reasonable and perfect volume based stop loss. RR Ratio on a trade like this is always 1:1.75RR.

20/04/2023 (420!) - 7:20AM (Trade 1) +1.75%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: D profile.PNG Size: 12 KB

Context: At the highest volume cluster to the upside of yesterdays ‘D’ profile.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Confirmation: Price moving up, delta falling. 2 inverted imbalances also inside that bullish candle then the next bearish candle (PA confirmation) had 3 inverted imbalances within it. Also had relatively large volumes at that price level showing possible accumulation.

Notes / Warnings: 15.5 pip stop loss. High volume areas are nearby so a standard fixed minimum 1:1.75RR ratio is used.

20/04/2023 - 1:25PM (Trade 2) +1.75%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: D profile 2nd trade.PNG Size: 9 KB

Context: At the start of the largest volume cluster to the downside of yesterdays ‘D’ profile.
Attached Image


Confirmation: Price falling, delta rising. Bullish hammer candle heavy volumes accumulated and a large imbalance appeared. One more candle wait was needed for a bullish candle with a positive delta.

21/04/2023 - 10:05AM (1 Trade) -1%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Context: At the largest volume cluster to the downside of yesterdays ‘D’ profile.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: D profile 3 confirmation.PNG Size: 18 KB


Confirmation: Price falling, delta positive. The bearish candle that touched the HVA, had a inverted imbalance at the low (possible passive participants) and an imbalance near the top (aggressive market participants) the next bullish candle (PA confirmation) had a positive delta as well as an imbalance within. Before this setup there was unusually large volume trade(s) that was likely passive buyers entering before price came down further, highlighted with the '!'.
Seeking Fair Value
  • #80
  • Edited 2:29pm Jan 17, 2024 1:24pm | Edited 2:29pm

A brief thread overview


We did it! We have created an amazing thread with so much value already within and have completed the first phase of discussion being the introduction/explanation of the strategy and the tools used as well as old trades showing the strategy in action. From here I know I need to go over, and in more detail, order flow in general as well as detailed analysis of volumes. I will also start the next phase of the thread with present day analysis of the strategy (volume profile and order flow explanations included) before going into how this strategy can effectively be traded along with a Auction Market Theory strategy/trading structure.

I am going to link some of the most important posts in the thread so far, so that its easier for people to catch up if needed:

  1. The Steps & Rules
  2. Volume Profile Category Rules
  3. First Old Journaled Trade Breakdowns
  4. Trade Selection & Execution Process Explained
  5. First real-time trade breakdown
  6. Tools, Data & Software
  7. My Order Flow Basics

This list is by no means all of what the thread has to offer, just a glimpse, I recommend everyone read through the thread to fully grasp the strategy and tools used and so on.

Yesterday's EURUSD Volume Profile Categorization


On Tuesday the 16th of January 2024, EURUSD sold off from the open to just after midday before consolidating at the lows until market rollover. This created a 'b' volume profile as I categorized last night just after the close. Knowing this we can prepare ourselves and our plan in relation to the strategy's specific volume profile category rules. The following chart shows a layout of what areas can be resistance within a 'b' volume profile and numbered volume clusters to better understand what volume clusters to avoid (#1).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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The largest High Volume Area (HVA) at the bottom of the trading range can only be seen as resistance and traded as such if price breaks below it, continuing the bearish activity the day before.

1) This volume cluster often gets shot straight past during a pullback day and as such my rules state to not trade this level and expect stop hunts/spikes through it and up to the second volume cluster.

2) Except from the HVA at the low of the profile, this volume cluster is significant and wide as well as accompanied by a small price action range. It is safe to assume that large market participants were accumulating their positions here before manipulating/allowing/pushing price into their direction.

3) A very small volume cluster, not very significant however it is in a place of the initial aggressive selling that began the sell off on Tuesday. A perfect opportunity to confirm a trade off of a level like this is by looking for current aggressive activity coming back into the market when/if price returns there! This would be done most effectively by looking for bid x ask imbalances around the volume cluster.

Today's action on yesterday's volume profile

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: b profile trade overview (1).png Size: 14 KB

As the day progressed (Wednesday 17th January) price convincingly broke below the prior day's trading range before retracing back up to the most significant HVA of the prior days profile as the screenshot above shows. This is our context for a short trade setup according to the strategy but first, the idea must be validated by order flow! If order flow does not confirm the trade, either wait or don't trade. Anywhere within the HVA can be used as resistance in this scenario/setup, not just the P.O.C every time! This is where we can use order flow to assist us in picking the exact moment to enter, understanding that the market in a insanely complex system with many millions of participants and that price can and will react just below/above/through any level no matter how important!

When price retraced back into the HVA a very good trade confirmation/alarm/signal appeared on my chart, that being Price - Cumulative Delta Divergence:
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The price of EUR Futures (100% positively correlates to spot EURUSD) was slowly but consistently going up but cumulative delta was starting to fall! This is a warning that price could soon turn and follow cumulative delta.

Put in its most simplest terms cumulative delta tracks what side of the market has had the most activity/strength, so in this example, price was rising but sellers were starting to enter short positions and price just hasn't turned yet. This made me start looking for a entry trigger as I believe price could start struggling to go any further soon.
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As price was rising through the HVA there was little to no confirmations to go short until the above screenshot of my chart started unfolding. To start, at the tops of the first candles there were relatively large inverted imbalances showing aggressive sellers are starting to enter up here and this was echoed by the candle being bullish but having a negative delta which is bearish price - delta divergence. Ten minutes later we haven't really moved anywhere but many inverted imbalances are starting to appear throughout the chart (aggressive sellers) and eventually we topped out with a textbook large passive seller (limit sell order) at the very top! During this whole topping out process there was consistently heavy volumes on both bid x ask throughout, this could be accumulation taking place.

No definite entry trigger candle came until the 8:40AM candle closed with 2 inverted imbalances (aggressive sellers) and no bullish signs/volumes within and a negative delta and cumulative delta.

The stop loss was placed completely above the HVA we are trading off of, accepting the ever increasing noise of todays markets and allowing the whole HVA to become resistance for us before stopping out:
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Important economic news was due to be released at 1:30PM (UK time) and the trade was covered just ahead of these events for a small profit. Price did then turn and head deeper into profit but this is the safest way to manage the significant risk economic events cause.
Seeking Fair Value
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