Manipulated Markets: A Strategy To Profit

A Trade Set Up & Explanation From Today (Tuesday 7th May 2024)

Hi traders, today I have a complete trade set-up and breakdown according to this strategy, with full explanations by me. If anyone is confused as to the specifics of the strategy or how I analyse Order Flow, please read the thread from the start, all the info is within and if not feel free to PM me! I lower the quality of photos to fit FF's requirements, click on any screenshots/pictures for a better view/resolution.

Context: Daily Volume Profile Analysis

To start off with at the start of the week, Monday 6th May 2024, price printed a standard 'D' profile at the day's close. We observe and categorize this in real-time in preparation for the day ahead, as the rules of this strategy and this profile specifically state.

Now we have categorized the prior daily Volume Profile as a 'D' profile, we know how to trade it according to the rules; Large Volume Clusters (High Volume Area) at either the top or bottom are to be seen as significant support/resistance areas of which any confirmed rejection/bounce off of those levels by Order Flow result in placing a mean-reversion style trade.

In the screenshot above you can see that the upper HVA is at the same price levels as Monday's Value Area High (VAH - Green Line) this extra confluence adds importance to the resistance area highlighted.

Without delving too deep into Auction Market Theory (my main trading philosophy) the Value Area within a Volume Profile is the area where the most trade was facilitated (70% of volume encompassed within the profile takes place within the Value Area) and as such is described as the fairest prices or where Value is located. It is said that price sends majority of its time within Value as this is where most trade is facilitated, with the market's main purpose being to facilitate trade.

The Value Area High (VAH) is the top of the Value Area. The Value Area Low (VAL) is the bottom of the Value Area. Both of these levels are usually the range/bracket extremes when price is ranging within Value and provide excellent reference points when forecasting/reacting to price's dynamic relationship with Value. Put more simply the VAH & VAL can be effective support/resistance levels.

This is not even the tip of the iceberg in terms of trading with Market Profile & Auction Market Theory in general, as I have said I will go into this in detail, possibly in a new dedicated thread in the future.

AMT aside, on Tuesday 7th May (today) EURUSD did very little until around midday (UK time) when price shot up into our levels of interest. At this point it would be foolish and against the rules of the strategy to pre-emptively jump in a trade without first confirming the set-up via Order Flow:

Confirmation: Order Flow Footprint Analysis

Above is a screenshot of the moment price reacted to our highlighted resistance zone (High Volume Area + Value Area High) on a 5-minute footprint chart. Accumulation (large volumes on both bid x ask) and Inverted Imbalances (Aggressive Sellers) were apparent but the 1-minute chart was much more revealing:

Starting from the left, price reached a ceiling and proceeded to trade heavy volumes but with zero price movement/continuation and as such it may be Accumulation taking place and in this situation it is bearish.

The next three powerful confirmations all took place within the 2:48PM 1-minute candle; A large Limit Sell Order stopping price from proceeding is highlighted at the top of the candle; Stacked Inverted Imbalances highlighted throughout the candle show continuous seller strength; both the Candle's Delta and the day's Cumulative Delta was negative, further echoing seller strength.

Although I didn't catch it at the time I still think its value is worthy of a quick discussion; Cumulative Delta's Amazing Ability At Predicting Price Swings! In the screenshot below notice how the Cumulative Delta fully turned before price, yet more evidence of the power of Cumulative Delta:

Following the strategy & profile specific rules tell us to put a fixed minimum Risk-Reward ratio of 1:1.75 on the trade as the original profit target (P.O.C) is too close. The Stop Loss was placed just above Monday's trading range high, in a area of Low Volume, risking 11 pips.

Finally, lets look at the trade on a plain 30-minute candlestick chart:


I hope this was a good addition to the thread and of to some value and I wish everyone a good rest of your day/night!

Trade safe,

MM

Hi @makingmoves I always look forward to your posts. If possible, could you please share at least one live trade like above each week? It would help a lot. Thank you so much!

Hello shahasd,

Thank you for the kind words, I appreciate it! This strategy (most importantly the combination of these tools) I use only when I have other reasoning's behind a trade, as I have touched on in this thread and my posts on the AMT thread, you can probably tell it usually has something to do with Auction Market Theory (AMT - trading theory/philosophy) and the Market Profile to get an understanding of what to do and where. From there, I use these tools exactly like I describe in this strategy for really detailed volume analysis. You can trade this effectively by itself but it can always be improved or if you have the knowledge/experience you can build on, improve or like I have chosen, mould it into one of my other strategies/trading styles I believe has a superior edge, magnifying this edge or at least allowing me to trade it more effectively and making my daily trading less busy.

All that to say, when a suitable trading setup appears, using this strategy (the tools combined) I will take the time to make a post. For now however, I am very busy trading and working on new aspects I can use to improve my trading further. One big commitment I have currently is testing and trading other ways to fundamentally view this valuable data (Order Flow) more effectively and just differently, I am doing this publicly - documenting and posting my activities when I can, bit-by-bit on a new thread I started dedicated to it.

Don't worry, I am still here, just busy! I will get to posting trade setups and breakdowns using these tools combined when I can!

Trade safe,

MM

Hi MM, I understand, whenever it’s possible for you. Thank you for the reply, much appreciated.

@makingmoves Thank you so much for taking the time to post this level of detail, and continuing to provide examples. Amazing content!

I'm just starting the process of applying volume profile, auction theory, order flow to my strategy - and so glad I landed on your thread. This is definitely how my mind works - looking for the lowest common denominator, using ACTUAL detail...not interpretation (until you interpret the detail of course).

I'm in Australia and trade Asia session. Life (and the human need for sleep :-) prevents me from trading the NY session, but I am so curious to see how I can use the NY session data (and 'overnight') to trade Asia. I look forward to exploring.

A question for anyone using TradingView to apply these theories - is there any preferred Indicators you would recommend. Are you using TradingView's own 'Time Price Opportunity' view or 'Volume Footprint'? Of course, I am experimenting but any hints of what others have found useful would be greatly appreciated :-)

HI,

How are you? What is the name of this indicator? Can you share it? Thanks

This a very detailed journal! I hope I could have this since the first day I traded order flow. GJ

Sounds like an intriguing strategy you're working on! A lot of people rely heavily on standard indicators, but the idea of incorporating a third variable definitely sets this approach apart. If you can find an edge that others aren't seeing, that could be a game changer in trading.

Hi makingmoves,

As a new ff member, I wanted to commend you on all your efforts in providing the community with such valuable insights around VP, TPO (from your AMT post) and orderflow. As a fairly green trader, volume, time, price and orderflow mechanics (including their corresponding indicators such as VWAP, RVOL, footprints) are intuitive and resonate with me on a deeper level - esp when contrasted with other popular strategies such as ICT, SMC, etc.

I understand you may be busy given it's that time of the year (happy 2025!) so hopefully this is not too much of an impost; I just wanted to check if you had any further updates on trade performance since your last post on this thread please?

Hello traders, I apologize for the lack of posts - busy blah blah. I've been meaning to get a new post up and to make it easier for me I'm just going to post this here, it's still all Order Flow stuff so not too out of place. It's another journal trade rundown from today, but I did go over and add labels to screenshots and explain etc!

USDJPY - Monday 16th June 2025

Today USDJPY moved sharply upwards before slowly retracing back, this continued until around 6:30AM UK Time! There are two reasons this is significant for me:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

1. This moved down directly onto the day's open, ultimately acting like a support bounce.
2. London is due to open soon!

I at this point was looking for what was happening on JPY Futures Order Flow;

Remember it is an inverted chart. You see the highlighted inverted imbalances showing aggressive selling on the bid, supported by negative deltas, and on that note the cumulative delta was also negative! This leads to one of my favourite confirmations that was present, Price - Cumulative Delta Divergence:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)

Price (JPY Futures) was risingbut CVD (Cumulative Delta) was consistently falling!Price is rising, but sellers are potentially going short. Now stop loss placement:




Stop loss was 36 pips, behind and within a High Volume Area (HVA) + some S/R. TP is my fixed minimum 1:1.75RR for this scenario, or until I have to close for external reasons (dad now, sometimes have to stop trading for day now, but always try to keep trade management possible on phone).

I'm sorry it wasn't a big post or anything guys, I will try to get more big posts up soon or even if just little journal ones like today's trade, whenever I can sit down and bang it out quickly.

Trade Safe,

MM.

Hi there AlexPC,

Feel free to PM me on FF! Same goes to anyone else.

Trade safe,

MM.

Hi Making Mover, is this THREAD still active? It's very interesting and congratulations on how you explain the technique.

Excellent strategy. I also came up with my own trend-based strategy. Rate my trading this week.

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You used strategy used here in the tread?

Hello. This strategy is based on a trend and placing a grid of orders at reversal points. At the very beginning, the trend is determined using the Keltner channel on a 1-day timeframe. After that, you wait until the price approaches extreme values or the midline and check for a local reversal on a shorter timeframe and the MACD indicator. The entire grid is closed simultaneously when the target value is reached.
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