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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #12,181
  • Dec 22, 2023 4:42am Dec 22, 2023 4:42am
Quoting tmpascoe
{quote} It's hard to argue against the strategy isn't it. I particularly liked the Sun Pharmaceutical as that square looked really out of place, but still hit the 8/8 perfectly.
Its great- I am just wondering if its clubbed with Alain's MAs then it could be even more predictable. But at times I have seen that the more we try to make things predictable, the more they get out of hand. So best to leave it untouched at present. What most of us want is something which is 90% accurate and in reality it just doesnt exist. So best is to get used to the rest 20-30% of uncertainty.
  • #12,182
  • Dec 22, 2023 4:42am Dec 22, 2023 4:42am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Ace Murrey has never produced other thing than his "book" in 1993. As for hurst you can find all bookks on PDF on this thread. Seems now the books are very expensive.
Pariboy,

Thank you for all that you share. I will dig into those Hurst pdfs attached here.
  • #12,183
  • Dec 22, 2023 4:46am Dec 22, 2023 4:46am
Quoting aptx
{quote} Its great- I am just wondering if its clubbed with Alain's MAs then it could be even more predictable. But at times I have seen that the more we try to make things predictable, the more they get out of hand. So best to leave it untouched at present. What most of us want is something which is 90% accurate and in reality it just doesnt exist. So best is to get used to the rest 20-30% of uncertainty.
I only trade long term swings, but I'm using MMLs in conjunction with CMA channels, CMA focal points, Fourier transform sine waves & smoothed FLDs as support/resistance. I find this mix works pretty well together. (of course MMLs are a new addition)
  • #12,184
  • Dec 22, 2023 4:58am Dec 22, 2023 4:58am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} you have this one too IMHO good to understand the general philosophy {file}
Thanks for posting pb it was a good read. Cheers...
  • #12,185
  • Dec 22, 2023 5:13am Dec 22, 2023 5:13am
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  • #12,186
  • Dec 22, 2023 5:26am Dec 22, 2023 5:26am
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  • #12,187
  • Dec 22, 2023 5:30am Dec 22, 2023 5:30am
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  • #12,188
  • Dec 22, 2023 6:58am Dec 22, 2023 6:58am
Quoting aptx
Terry- some tests today: {image} {image} {image} {image}
Thank you they are excellent examples
  • #12,189
  • Dec 22, 2023 7:04am Dec 22, 2023 7:04am
Quoting tmpascoe
{quote} It's hard to argue against the strategy isn't it. I particularly liked the Sun Pharmaceutical as that square looked really out of place, but still hit the 8/8 perfectly. I'm interested to try a few long term targets on the weekly and see how they play out
Totally agree Terry
Thanks for all the hard work you have done
I am sure you will have a very good edge in your Tool Box now
Have a great Christmas and New Year
And I think you are going to have a very interesting
Year ahead
Dave
  • #12,190
  • Dec 22, 2023 7:16am Dec 22, 2023 7:16am
Hi Alain
It goes without saying
Thank you for you thread and information that you
freely give, the detail is above all expectation
So just wishing you
A great Christmas and New Year
ps
Hope you do not have any more
New Financial Books as presents
Dave
  • #12,191
  • Dec 22, 2023 7:39am Dec 22, 2023 7:39am
Quoting tmpascoe
{quote} I only trade long term swings, but I'm using MMLs in conjunction with CMA channels, CMA focal points, Fourier transform sine waves & smoothed FLDs as support/resistance. I find this mix works pretty well together. (of course MMLs are a new addition)
Terry
My FLDs
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  • #12,192
  • Dec 22, 2023 8:18am Dec 22, 2023 8:18am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Terry My FLDs {image} {image}
Do you use them for support/resistance only Dave, or do you use them for targeting as well?
  • #12,193
  • Edited 9:14am Dec 22, 2023 8:40am | Edited 9:14am
Quoting tmpascoe
{quote} Do you use them for support/resistance only Dave, or do you use them for targeting as well?
Both
When one breaks its level , is another near for a Target or a stop
Because I am scanning a number of Stocks I need something for my eye to see quick and say put me on the radar
Also they fit in pretty good with a Major grid ?
Being a little silly I could call them Speed lines in a way
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  • #12,194
  • Dec 22, 2023 9:04am Dec 22, 2023 9:04am
Examples ?
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  • #12,195
  • Dec 22, 2023 12:14pm Dec 22, 2023 12:14pm
Why MM-octaves are related to music octaves ?

The term "octave" is a word that describes a precise event : the doubling of a rate of vibrations.

and it does not change or fluctuate in meaning depending upon the arena it is meant to describe. An "octave" is an "octave" whether the process happens in music, financial markets, or turning your fan from low to high. It is all the same fundamental law (of nature) behind the myriad of different applications.
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  • #12,196
  • Dec 22, 2023 1:24pm Dec 22, 2023 1:24pm
IMHO No serious work has been made about FLD"s outside from David Hickson with his FLD Trading strategy.

What is a FLD ? a FLD is the projection of present price in the Future of 1/2 Period of a cycle existing in the data series.

EXXON Weekly chart herunder shows you in weekly a FLD 52 (1 Year) = Price Translated in the Future of 26 Weeks (52/2 = 26)

the FLD 52 is in white
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  • #12,197
  • Dec 22, 2023 2:21pm Dec 22, 2023 2:21pm
the ichimoku system is from 1960's

when someone try to reinvent the wheel just to take credit and give it acronyms to fool other people, he's called a scammer.

but hey, they did it to GANN, so why not others

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"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #12,198
  • Edited 4:04pm Dec 22, 2023 2:23pm | Edited 4:04pm
to simplify things FLD's can be used at their maximum power to forecast Target Prices preferably when the Underlying Trend is FLAT.

Whicj means that Price Action is in Cycle Mode

On the EXXON chart hereunderyou can observe that EXXON Price Action is ;

in Cycle Mode during 39 Bars
in an Uptrend during118 Bars
in a Downtrend during 60 Bars

My experience helped by the theory indicates that the MAIN USE of FLD's is to be a Trend Follwing Tool
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  • #12,199
  • Edited 4:17pm Dec 22, 2023 3:47pm | Edited 4:17pm
Did you try with MA 4 / -2 ? Maybe difficult to trade on 1 mn but looks quite good on 4 H..

i have looked all day gold with only with 2 MA: 16 and 32. I was surprised what i seen.
I just begin to see.
But i like it very much.
Thanks for your knowledge.
  • #12,200
  • Edited 1:17am Dec 23, 2023 12:59am | Edited 1:17am
APTX, a worthwhile experiment perhaps?
1. We know that once price enters an MML frame that it's likely to travel to the overbought or oversold level of that frame.
2. We know that when it reaches that level, a close past +2/8 or past -2/8 will cause a new frame to form
3. We know that when a new frame does form price would once again be expected to move to the overbought or oversold level of that new frame.

So it seems to me that we need a "signal" that price is likely to, or not likely to break the +2/8 or -2/8 level.
If price is not likely to break the +/- 2/8 level then we'd exit our swing trade at the overbought/oversold level. If on the other hand, price is likely to break the +/- 2/8 level we could stay in the trade and target the next frame's overbought/oversold level.

I've been playing with focal point and/or FLD targets as that "signal". If, for example, the target of the FP or FLD is past the +/- 2/8 level we'd stay in the swing trade. If the target of the FP or FLD falls short of +/- 2/8 then we'd exit at the overbought/oversold level of the current frame.

The results look OK for the very limited testing I've done. If you're interested perhaps you could test some too?

As an example, bitcoin currently has a FP target and a weekly FLD target, both pointing at 48 - 48.5K. This is at approx 7.5/8 in the current frame, so is not past +2/8. Based on that I'd expect a sizeable retracement on Bitcoin after it has reached that level as the new frame will NOT form. If I was short term swing trading Bitcoin I'd look to exit at that target rather than hanging on in the hope that a new frame will form.
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