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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #12,121
  • Dec 20, 2023 8:46am Dec 20, 2023 8:46am
NQ1:
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Stick to the plan!
  • #12,122
  • Dec 20, 2023 9:16am Dec 20, 2023 9:16am
[quote=Fractales;14695081] si on projette que le MA 64 traversera les MA 16 et 32 au milieu du carré vert au point Focal (traversant les MA 16 et 32) le prix doit augmenter à partir de maintenant..[/citation]

ok i think that i see my mistake now, MA 64 still go up but price go down. MA 64 still go up because down start since 22 candles...
  • #12,123
  • Dec 20, 2023 10:00am Dec 20, 2023 10:00am
EUR/USD D1/H4 of yesterday:
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Stick to the plan!
  • #12,124
  • Edited 5:41pm Dec 20, 2023 11:06am | Edited 5:41pm
the basic fact is that we are all benevolent nice guys and we trust what we have on our screen

This iis far from the reality.in the case of MMO (Murrey Maths Official)

a) Bonnie Hill told us about MMO is that Murrey "borrowed", stoled the ideas in a non-published Gann Course and that there were some ideas, concepts , methods that Murrey has not fully understood ( to be polite)

b) Murrey from Nashville Tennesse , who is illiterate in computer programming, let build his software by a german guy named Stefan Werling living in Germany

c) hence we can have a double oui-dire case ; we depend
a) from what Murrey has understood from a Gann Course nobody has ever read
b) from a software whose accuracy depends on what Werling has understood from Murrey

d) we have to take into account that we have no Murrey's specification for the software and no real Murrey's methodology.

e) the proof of that is the existence of Tim Kruzel's Notes trying to summarize and explain rationally Murrey's methodologyafter reading Murrey's book and even to automatize it with his AMM.exe DOS program.

f) additionally a programmer Brian Mc Mullan build an add-in allowing the IB platform to use MMO.

g) de facto Kruzel and Mc Millan (and commentators and posters) are reengeneering Murrey's book and Murrey's software
  • #12,125
  • Dec 20, 2023 12:43pm Dec 20, 2023 12:43pm
let's take some examples.

let's take Terry ! it is obvious that Terry gives some value to the Excel spreadsheet I sent him.

Problem is I have a dozen of other similar spreadsheet gathered here and there in 25 Years.

Which is the correct one ?

I am sure we could find some divergence between them.
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls MurreyMathCalculator, Version 1.3 (Dec 1999) Travail.xls   53 KB | 415 downloads
File Type: xls GannStuff.xls   39 KB | 405 downloads
File Type: xls DynSR.xls   58 KB | 377 downloads
  • #12,126
  • Dec 20, 2023 12:52pm Dec 20, 2023 12:52pm
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  • #12,127
  • Edited 1:27pm Dec 20, 2023 1:02pm | Edited 1:27pm
let's post some messages of the old mmxapp group (2000) about Murrey's EOD software.;

Brian
At the seminar in Beverly Hills Murrey talked about how he determined the high and low of the frame .......Murrey said for a 16 day frame he used the range of the last 32 days...and if prices closed past 10/8 or -2/8 he would adjust the frame. Murrey also mentioned something about the prices going past 8/8 and 0/8 for several days to adjust the frame. Steve ...the computer guy was in the front row. I know he is with this group or the other. Also try agent moulder he's good at details. Ron

Yes... Murrey says 2X. That's not what the s/w does though. I don't know if Murrey is intentionally misleading the audience or if Werling has done something different than Murrey thinks he has. Bruce

I have the feeling that the true answer lies somewhere in between. I think that Murrey's software looks back up to two times the time period chosen and select only the first significant high and low that matter. If there is another significant high and low before the one that it picked, still within the two times the period that was selected, it ignores it.

If I had more details I would not say "I have the feeling", but I would say it is. Anyway, my feeling is:

- say you set the frame to 16. The software should look back 32 and see what significant highs and lows are present. Based on an algorithm it would then determine what is "significant", and then choose the closest "significant" to the present and drop the one before it, even if the one before is more "significant". Murrey keeps saying that the last high and low are the ones that count.But in fact they have to be significant highs and lows. It does not really matter where they are located, as long as they are the LAST significant high and low.

Brian's software now looks at the high and low within the designated period and adds lines based on the highest high and lowest low present in that period. I don't think that is the correct way of doing it. Adding a range finder and then computing the "significant" highs and lows, then choosing the last "significant" high and low are the way to go, IMHO. One should be easily able to compare this thought by comparing the daily charts from Murrey's software and the daily charts with Brian's software. You will probably have to go through fifty or more charts, and see what settings in Brian's software will equate with Murrey's daily chart set, say, at 16 periods. Do not change the periods in Murrey, but change them in Brian's to obtain the sameresults as in Murrey's. Use charts that have good price excursion.

I am planning to do just this as soon as Murrey sends me the latest software that will read data after last December I hope this explains my "feelings". Cheers. Bijan
  • #12,128
  • Edited 2:48pm Dec 20, 2023 1:12pm | Edited 2:48pm
Guidelines to follow these posts from the past from the mmxapp group.

Nobody knows how precisely works Murrey's software to choose "significant" highs and lows in the past, nobody knows how many bars we have to use to determine the high and low of this (undetermined) period

In short nobody knows how precisely is generated a Murrey's software EOD chart.

Anyway You are allowed to have an educated guess and a substantiated opinion on above subject.
  • #12,129
  • Edited 5:43pm Dec 20, 2023 1:17pm | Edited 5:43pm
other posts from 2000

Guys, I think this may prove my point that regardless what time frame you put yourself in, the software looks for the most recent "significant" high and low to calculate the frame size.

Another chart which implies that 1.5x is the one to use as a general rule (this one is frame size 16).

On 1 x, the high and low in 16 days do not compute the frame to match THMs output.

I agree, Brian. The only thing I've seen besides 1.5X+1 is a shorter display that seems to be reacting to a rule they have about significant lows/highs. The ABTXQ chart does that after a whipsaw in the rally that precedes the displayed portion of the chart. I have to assume the Murrey s/w looks for reversals off intermediate highs and if they're greater than X%, he says it's significant. I don't recall reading about that in the book, but I think it's in the s/w. Bruce

Murrey's EOD s/w currently uses a greater number of bars than the frame size to test for significant highs/lows. The number of bars tested is 1.5*N+1 where N is the frame size. So for a 16-bar frame, the number of bars tested for significant high/low is1.5*16+1 = 25 bars. So a 16-bar frame, if allowed to display unassisted, will usually show 25 bars of data, the 32-bar frame will display 49 bars and the 64-bar frame will display 97 bars.

Murrey's s/w also has a whipsaw detector (of sorts) that tests to see if a whipsaw is sufficient to constitute a significant high/low. If the detector gets activated, the number of bars displayed will be less than 1.5*N+1.Bruce
  • #12,130
  • Dec 20, 2023 1:24pm Dec 20, 2023 1:24pm
Pretty simple really With the frame settings of 4, 8, 16, 32 & 64; the program finds the highest high/lowest low in the last X bars, where X is:

on "1x", or natural, frame setting x 1, eg 64 is bars
on "1.5x", it is frame setting x 1.5, eg 64 is 64 * 1.5, or 96 bars
on "2x", it is frame setting x 2.0, eg 64 is 64 * 2, or 128 bars

I personally use the 2x setting, this seems to match Murrey's program output in the majority of cases. Brian

For example, using a frame setting of 64, X number of bars back is:
- 64 bars on "1x" (or natural) frame setting
- 96 bars on "1.5x", (64 * 1.5 = 96 bars)
- 128 bars on "2x", (64 * 2 = 128 bars)

It is up for some debate as to which one is the correct one to use. Several members have commented (summary of all) "I've never seen any chart from Murrey's s/w that has 2*N bars... only 1.5*N+1 or fewer. Murrey SAYS to use 2*N in his classes, but that's apparently not what his s/w does. You'd have to use the search mode to get that"

I personally use the 1.5 setting and it has matched the majority (95% +) of the charts I've seen as output from Murrey's own program. Hope this helps, Brian
  • #12,131
  • Dec 20, 2023 3:01pm Dec 20, 2023 3:01pm
[quote=Fractales;14695562]
Quoting Fractales
si on projette que le MA 64 traversera les MA 16 et 32 au milieu du carré vert au point Focal (traversant les MA 16 et 32) le prix doit augmenter à partir de maintenant..[/citation] ok i think that i see my mistake now, MA 64 still go up but price go down. MA 64 still go up because down start since 22 candles...
it is a misleading and erroneous interpretation.

It just reveals that you have no correct understanding of how a Moving Average works.

Do not worry about that! 99.99 % of the traders are in the same situation.

How a MA can go up when Price goes down ?

Simple : Let's calculate the situation of the MA 64 of tomorrow.

To calculate tomorrow's MA 64 value - assuming we use the close value - we add to today's CMA value the difference between tomorrow close and the close 64 days back in time divided by 64.

If this difference is positive CMA 64 will go up , even if tomorrow's close is lower than today's close
  • #12,132
  • Edited 5:46pm Dec 20, 2023 3:54pm | Edited 5:46pm
The fact is Murrey has no real specific methodology

Which explains why Murrey does not offer us a trading methodology to trade this unprecise "Murrey Maths " methodology he has promoted.

Murrey's Maths methodology - Division by 8 of a Price Range is pure Gann

the only question is where have to begin and end the Price Range ?.

Gann answers whatever Lows or Tops you choose
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  • #12,133
  • Dec 20, 2023 5:26pm Dec 20, 2023 5:26pm
In short a chart can be analyzed under several different " Fractal of Price " being at work at the same time.

in this present case (META) can be analyzed this way

META having reached 375 then theory said META evolves within Fractal of Price 0-1000 (Octave = 1000/8 = 125)

META having very slightly broken 375 (Gann "Lost Motion" concept) we can also consider that META fluctuates within the fractal of Price 0-500 (Octave = 500/8 = 62.5) (Terry option given by the spreadsheet)

after its Lost Motion META returned quickly back in its previous fractal 0-375 (Octave = 375/8 = 46.875) which includes most of the action (99%+) of the last 12 years - my preference
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  • #12,134
  • Dec 20, 2023 5:58pm Dec 20, 2023 5:58pm
in short Murrey's EOD software deals with maximum 6 months of data ( 128 Trading Days) ,most of the Time 96 Trading Days according to the users of the mmxapp group.

Murrey's EOD sofware is unable to deal with Long Term Charts
  • #12,135
  • Dec 20, 2023 6:13pm Dec 20, 2023 6:13pm
an other interesting post of year 2000

Brian
At the seminar in Beverly Hills Murrey talked about how he determined the high and low of the frame .......Murrey said for a 16 day frame he used the range of the last 32 days...and if prices closed past 10/8 or -2/8 he would adjust the frame. Murrey also mentioned something about the prices going past 8/8 and 0/8 for several days to adjust the frame. Steve ...the computer guy was in the front row. I know he is with this group or the other. Also try agent moulder he's good at details. Ron

Yes... Murrey says 2X. That's not what the s/w does though. I don't know if Murrey is intentionally misleading the audience or if Werling has done something different than Murrey thinks he has.
  • #12,136
  • Dec 20, 2023 6:27pm Dec 20, 2023 6:27pm
Let's apply some Hurst concepts on this " Murrey Chart"
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  • #12,137
  • Dec 20, 2023 6:32pm Dec 20, 2023 6:32pm
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  • #12,138
  • Dec 20, 2023 6:38pm Dec 20, 2023 6:38pm
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  • #12,139
  • Dec 20, 2023 8:41pm Dec 20, 2023 8:41pm
FLD's are not just useful for pattern recognition & targeting, they can also be used as support/resistance. This is a smoothed 32 day FLD providing excellent support for Bitcoin since the bottom.
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  • #12,140
  • Dec 20, 2023 10:22pm Dec 20, 2023 10:22pm
Quoting tmpascoe
{quote} Do you feel this is helping you stay in positions longer, or is the MML indicator just providing confirmation of targets.
LOL currently I am just too busy admiring it so really not looking at staying in positions or targets ! Honestly its like a work of art which you dont think of "using" but just "admiring" :-)
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