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Attachments: Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles
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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #12,081
  • Dec 19, 2023 6:11am Dec 19, 2023 6:11am
Quoting acetrader
Hi Parisboy, Here is a chart with the 200 EMA containing 4 levels ABOVE & BELOW the Centered 200 EMA. In addition to the 200 EMA with the varying levels the chart also contains a 20 EMA FLD. Now you say how do I trade using this. Actually, I don't trade as of yet using this method, but am seeking your views, input & advice as to whether this setup is actually showing cycles such as you & others show using the 256, 64 & 32 CMA's. Once I get your input & views then I will consider if I should use this as a trading method. My thoughts are once PRICE...
Ace
Can I ask you
What advantages do you see over
Parisboys
Envelopes
CMAs
FLDs
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  • #12,082
  • Dec 19, 2023 6:22am Dec 19, 2023 6:22am
Quoting OAPDave
{quote} Ace Can I ask you What advantages do you see over Parisboys Envelopes CMAs FLDs {image}
Dave,

Well not sure there is an advantage over CMA's, FLD's & similar, but was really wanting to know if the 200 EMA setup as I showed even is near being what the CMA Parisboy & others depicts using the 256, 64 & 32 CMA's. I am a bit partial to the FLD's as there is less chart clutter.

This is just something I designed & it had a bit of curve appeal as the saying goes. Certainly not my method to trade.

Thank you for taking a look & responding.
_________________________________
  • #12,083
  • Dec 19, 2023 6:30am Dec 19, 2023 6:30am
Quoting acetrader
Anyone else desiring to weigh in on the above chart please do so. All views are welcome.
When you say the 200 EMA is centred do you mean centred between the parallel EMA's as it doesn't appear to be a centered MA. A centered MA is offset by 1/2 of its span, yours doesn't appear to be offset at all
By offsetting/centering the MA it forces the MA to travel through the middle of the wave.
  • #12,084
  • Dec 19, 2023 6:41am Dec 19, 2023 6:41am
Quoting tmpascoe
{quote} When you say the 200 EMA is centred do you mean centred between the parallel EMA's as it doesn't appear to be a centered MA. A centered MA is offset by 1/2 of its span, yours doesn't appear to be offset at all By offsetting/centering the MA it forces the MA to travel through the middle of the wave.
Hi tmpascoe,
Thank you for responding. I miss spoke. I do mean the 200EMA is centered between the other levels of the EMA. Thank you for asking about that!
  • #12,085
  • Dec 19, 2023 6:56am Dec 19, 2023 6:56am
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  • #12,086
  • Edited 8:22am Dec 19, 2023 7:51am | Edited 8:22am
Ace may be I will disappoint you but I always found the narrative around EMA's ridiculous.

Why using an EMA rather than a SMA.

May be because "exponential " looks more sexy than "simple".

Most of you have a build-in reluctance against something which is "simple" or "labeled " simple !

It seems that people think that there are never enough lines, angles, indicators etc on a chart.

On these weekly charts I see no operative differences between EMA's and SMA's. for 9 and 30 weeks. What gives you the EMA 200?

First why 200 . I know the answer 200 is one of the parameters used for Moving Averages in the financial papers of the 70's. The other being 30 Weeks. Why ? I never saw an explanation. Just take it. for granted

As soon as EMA's were available to the public ( see the Mc Clellan oscillator) people found that it would be "better" to use EMA's . Why better ? They do not know and can not explain. Well it looks more complicated and "scientific". may be it is the explanation.

In TV default parameter for SMA and EMA - whatever time frame is 9 . Why 9 ? Mystery.

Anyway it is not important because nobody knows how an EMA is built and the consequence on the "better" EMA and on our trading.
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  • #12,087
  • Dec 19, 2023 8:02am Dec 19, 2023 8:02am
the key in the EMA is the "smoothing" factor.

How do you detrmine this "smoothing" factor ?

Can we compare the EMA given by TradingView and an EMA on another platform.

Concretely do they use the same smoothing factor ?
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  • #12,088
  • Dec 19, 2023 8:19am Dec 19, 2023 8:19am
The system you show is basically an Envelope system with parallel boundaries positioned at successive similar distance.

This way you can estimate the amplitude of the movements.

You can even classify and hierarchize the moves (1 Interva, 2 Intervals et

you can the use Hurst Valid Trend Lines system, Action Signal when VTL is bbroke, Mid Band and Edge Band Trading etc
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  • #12,089
  • Dec 19, 2023 8:30am Dec 19, 2023 8:30am
Alain
Anything happening today
In my seat
Cup a tea on my desk
Biscuits in hand
Ready to go ?
  • #12,090
  • Dec 19, 2023 8:52am Dec 19, 2023 8:52am
Apple Follow up ?
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  • #12,091
  • Dec 19, 2023 9:22am Dec 19, 2023 9:22am
Quoting parisboy
Ace may be I will disappoint you but I always found the narrative around EMA's ridiculous. Why using an EMA rather than a SMA. May be because "exponential " looks more sexy than "simple". Most of you have a build-in reluctance against something which is "simple" or "labeled " simple ! It seems that people think that there are never enough lines, angles, indicators etc on a chart. On these weekly charts I see no operative differences between EMA's and SMA's. for 9 and 30 weeks. What gives you the EMA 200? First why 200 . I know the answer...
Parisboy,
No disappointment at all. Value your views. You raised some valid points. I really have no preference for the EMA over the SMA, but I guess it's what I always referred to when I needed a MA. Just changed the chart I posted to the SMA & there is a little noticeable difference. After comparing the EMA Envelopes, I loaded a chart showing CMA's using the PB_Cycles_V1.03t indicator it appears CMAs are much better at showing the cycles.

Thank you for your views & comments as they are always most welcome.
  • #12,092
  • Edited 9:55am Dec 19, 2023 9:37am | Edited 9:55am
Alain
Your a no show
Sorry but Warren Buffett as given
me a call so off to see what tips he can give me ?

ps
Catch you tomorrow

ps
Buy McDonalds
They are trialing a new restaurant concept as an add on to existing modal as to compete with the (Coffee Shops)
Plus Expanding in general
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  • #12,093
  • Dec 19, 2023 10:01am Dec 19, 2023 10:01am
Quoting Fractales
Bonjour, Ai-je bien compris ? est-ce un scénario possible ? MA 16 – rouge MA 128 blanc MA 256 Croix Bleue du MA 16-128-256 au point focal 2009 = 2009-1973 (point bas) = 36+2009 = 2045 (point haut) Fin du cycle haussier, Nouveau cycle baissier début à Projection 2048 du point focal (MA 16 et MA 128) = 2048-2024 = 24 Cycle de projection vers le bas = 2000 {image}
missed !

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  • #12,094
  • Dec 19, 2023 4:31pm Dec 19, 2023 4:31pm
Quoting OAPDave
Alain Your a no show Sorry but Warren Buffett as given me a call so off to see what tips he can give me ? ps Catch you tomorrow ps Buy McDonalds They are trialing a new restaurant concept as an add on to existing modal as to compete with the (Coffee Shops) Plus Expanding in general {image}
I wish I was in the "purple circle" like you are Dave.
  • #12,095
  • Edited 5:37pm Dec 19, 2023 4:50pm | Edited 5:37pm
Quoting tmpascoe
{quote} I wish I was in the "purple circle" like you are Dave.
No
They are that tight , they expect you to keep buying
all the drinks
  • #12,096
  • Dec 19, 2023 4:54pm Dec 19, 2023 4:54pm
Hello,

second day of work

MA of Parisboy with colors = up blue or green = down yellow or red

vertical line when all MA are up or down : have a look:

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  • #12,097
  • Dec 19, 2023 4:55pm Dec 19, 2023 4:55pm
with larger view;

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  • #12,098
  • Dec 19, 2023 4:56pm Dec 19, 2023 4:56pm
with channel 32

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  • #12,099
  • Dec 19, 2023 5:01pm Dec 19, 2023 5:01pm
5MN view with MA 60MN

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  • #12,100
  • Dec 19, 2023 5:18pm Dec 19, 2023 5:18pm
One thing I learned early on is not to get too demanding about just how EXACT the hit is on a line, or near a line, etc. It is more important to analyze

1) what line is a stock or an index CLOSE to?,

2) HOW is it acting in reference to that line?,

3) How long was the PREVIOUS RUN into the line?,

4) Exactly which "smaller square" within the big frame is price really contained within at present?

There are basically 3 behaviors which are associated with the PIVOT lines (even numbered lines - 0/8, 2/8, 4/8, 6/8, 8/8 ).

These behaviors are as follows:

1. Resistance at the pivot line.

In this case, the pivot line is acting as the top (8/8 line) of some smaller square within the bigger square which is the frame.

2. Oscillation around the pivot line.

In this case, the pivot line is acting as the middle (4/8 line) of some smaller square within the bigger square which is the frame.

3. Support at the pivot line.

In this case, the pivot line is acting as the bottom (0/8 line) of some smaller square within the bigger square which is the frame.
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