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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #87,581
  • Dec 13, 2023 10:07pm Dec 13, 2023 10:07pm
Quoting ty235685
{quote} With the decline in US dollar interest rates, they are probably selling a large amount of dollars and taking profits. Even though the interest rate differential is narrowing, it is incomprehensible that American interest rates are much higher. (Even if you have Japanese yen, there is no interest attached to it, so it is meaningless.) I would understand if the Japanese yen's interest rate reversed that of the US dollar. The market is looking too far into the future, and I think the value of the US dollar will rise even more than it is now,...
UJ has been rentlessly crushing it is just so scary to enter long now.... i wanted to hold my long but it turn from 1xx pips green to now red and even SL i just dun understand what causing this. perhaps market are scared as well of yen n usd.. its a wild horse now
  • #87,582
  • Dec 13, 2023 11:43pm Dec 13, 2023 11:43pm
Watch weekly chart, usd/jpy failed at 152.00 level, long term resistance. Then, 4 down bars.
Long-term range 127 -- 152 is confirmed.
Fundamental factors are in weekly chart. Big guys trade big chart.
  • #87,583
  • Dec 14, 2023 12:00am Dec 14, 2023 12:00am
Quoting Jack168
Watch weekly chart, usd/jpy failed at 152.00 level, long term resistance. Then, 4 down bars. Long-term range 127 -- 152 is confirmed. Fundamental factors are in weekly chart. Big guys trade big chart.
TRUE
  • #87,584
  • Dec 14, 2023 12:18am Dec 14, 2023 12:18am
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I went long on USD/JPY early today. I fell, UJ may go up to 146 again by next week. Of course, the highlighted zone in the chart needs to stay unbroken.
Small lot sizes, big wins
  • #87,585
  • Dec 14, 2023 12:35am Dec 14, 2023 12:35am
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Had a good session so far scalping the Yen pairs.
Kept some positions open for long-term.

if the 141-141.50 zone stays unbroken in UJ, maybe we can see 146 next week.
Small lot sizes, big wins
  • #87,586
  • Dec 14, 2023 12:39am Dec 14, 2023 12:39am
Quoting Traderylt
{image} Had a good session so far scalping the Yen pairs. Kept some positions open for long-term. if the 141-141.50 zone stays unbroken in UJ, maybe we can see 146 next week.

Haha i wanted to enter at 08 but i running out of margin. hopefully my 34 can hold.
  • #87,587
  • Dec 14, 2023 12:52am Dec 14, 2023 12:52am
Quoting FreeGary
{quote} Haha i wanted to enter at 08 but i running out of margin. hopefully my 34 can hold.
I think it will hold. Good luck bro
Small lot sizes, big wins
  • #87,588
  • Dec 14, 2023 1:11am Dec 14, 2023 1:11am
Quoting Traderylt
{quote} I think it will hold. Good luck bro
thanks but im thinking of close it get the profit n try to reenter later. but the price might not be that good. u closed that 08. abit wasted
  • #87,589
  • Dec 14, 2023 5:09am Dec 14, 2023 5:09am
Quoting FreeGary
{quote}UJ has been rentlessly crushing it is just so scary to enter long now.... i wanted to hold my long but it turn from 1xx pips green to now red and even SL i just dun understand what causing this. perhaps market are scared as well of yen n usd.. its a wild horse now
I have been trading for 3 years for the first time, but most of it is scalping trading. The loss if things don't go well is high, but since I entered the market by buying dollars and the yen was weak, my winning rate is 86%. In order to survive, we recommend that you do it with a value other than 1/10 of the deposit amount.
  • #87,590
  • Dec 14, 2023 5:32am Dec 14, 2023 5:32am
Quoting FreeGary
{quote} thanks but im thinking of close it get the profit n try to reenter later. but the price might not be that good. u closed that 08. abit wasted
dint follow my plan again from big green become loss AGAIN
  • #87,591
  • Dec 14, 2023 6:32am Dec 14, 2023 6:32am
Quoting FreeGary
{quote} Haha i wanted to enter at 08 but i running out of margin. hopefully my 34 can hold.
I closed at 61 with the help of trail..
  • #87,592
  • Dec 14, 2023 11:34pm Dec 14, 2023 11:34pm
What a rollercoaster! Went in long at 143.75 (1092) thinking the FOMC news was digested and the USD had bottomed out. Was very wrong and it crashed to below 141 in less than 6 hours leading to a paper loss of almost 2000 USD. Doubled down at 141.098 (1105) with exit strategy at 142.38 for both since that was just below the 142.50 short term resistance. Thanks to the daily interest I came out at -3.67 USD, cannot get a rollercoaster ticket for that price!
Taking a break now until the BOJ news is out next week. I think it might be dovish. That combined with oversold conditions could bring us back to 145+. Feel more comfortable shorting USD then than going long USD now because if BOJ is slightly hawkish we could be looking at 140 and below, like last year. Things are very sensitive now. Just the increase in hinting from 2 to 3 rate cuts next year for USD was enough for a 300+ pip move down. And market reacted very strongly to an even smaller hint from BOJ earlier this week. This makes trading on technicals alone very tricky because they can be disrupted by unpredictable news.
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  • #87,593
  • Dec 15, 2023 4:24am Dec 15, 2023 4:24am
Why would we buy the Japanese yen, which has a lower interest rate, even though the interest rate differential with the US dollar is narrowing? You can earn more swap points with US dollars...
  • #87,594
  • Dec 15, 2023 4:49am Dec 15, 2023 4:49am
With USD weakness and Yen strength,


Via the latest Reuters poll on the Bank of Japan outlook, main points:

  1. BoJ will begin to unwind ultra-loose monetary policy in January, 21% of economists say.
  2. BoJ will end negative interest rates in 2024, 84% of economists say in their end-quarter forecast; from 71% in Nov poll and 54% in Oct poll.
  3. 88% of economists say BoJ will end yield curve control policy; 12% say BoJ will tweak YCC again.
  4. BoJ deposit rate to rise to 0.00% or 0.10% by end-Q2 2024, say 28 of 42 economists; two say 0.25%.

***
Daiwa Securities, Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Nomura Securities and T&D Asset Management said the BOJ would end its negative interest rate policy at the January 22-23 meeting.
Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan and ZKB predicted the BOJ would abandon its yield curve control (YCC) policy in January. Daiwa Securities foresaw the BOJ tweaking YCC again, raising the long-term interest rate guidance target and retaining the policy's framework to avoid a sharp rise in long-term interest rates.


Downtrend is set

More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #87,595
  • Dec 15, 2023 5:23am Dec 15, 2023 5:23am
Quoting Fardeen1209
With USD weakness and Yen strength, Via the latest Reuters poll on the Bank of Japan outlook, main points: BoJ will begin to unwind ultra-loose monetary policy in January, 21% of economists say. BoJ will end negative interest rates in 2024, 84% of economists say in their end-quarter forecast; from 71% in Nov poll and 54% in Oct poll. 88% of economists say BoJ will end yield curve control policy; 12% say BoJ will tweak YCC again. BoJ deposit rate to rise to 0.00% or 0.10% by end-Q2 2024, say 28 of 42 economists; two say 0.25%. *** Daiwa Securities,...
does this mean UJ will continue to go down?
  • #87,596
  • Dec 15, 2023 5:58am Dec 15, 2023 5:58am
Quoting FreeGary
{quote} does this mean UJ will continue to go down?
Possibility from fundamental view becomes very high for UJ to continue trending down.

With the possibilty of BOJ to end YCC, Yield will start rising up in Japan. concurrenctly, Powell becomes dovish, and put FED funds rate cut on the table in 2024,
The yield gap between the 2 economies will start to get narrower.
Carry trading will be no longer perceive as attractive.
USD weakness - JPY strength
Both currencies of the pair pointing towards trending down.

Technical
Higher time frame structure (daily), keep making Lower Highs and Lower Lows.
Also pointing towrds trending down
More time in the market, does not mean you trade better!
  • #87,597
  • Dec 15, 2023 6:24am Dec 15, 2023 6:24am
Quoting Fardeen1209
{quote} Possibility from fundamental view becomes very high for UJ to continue trending down. With the possibilty of BOJ to end YCC, Yield will start rising up in Japan. concurrenctly, Powell becomes dovish, and put FED funds rate cut on the table in 2024, The yield gap between the 2 economies will start to get narrower. Carry trading will be no longer perceive as attractive. USD weakness - JPY strength Both currencies of the pair pointing towards trending down. Technical Higher time frame structure (daily), keep making Lower Highs and Lower Lows....
Ya thats what i interpret as well..
  • #87,598
  • Dec 15, 2023 7:06am Dec 15, 2023 7:06am
Quoting ty235685
Why would we buy the Japanese yen, which has a lower interest rate, even though the interest rate differential with the US dollar is narrowing? You can earn more swap points with US dollars...
Agree on the swap points, aka the carry trade, which was very popular in the late 90's when the yen hit an all time low of 147+ against the USD and recently it became popular again as interest rates in the US went up.

It was not until end of last year it beat that record low at 151+. So this year is only the third time in history it was close to 150. So shorting the US around those levels makes sense but swap points make it expensive to hold those positions for long. I made the mistake in August of shorting too early, and then exiting too early because I was starting to feel the bite of the daily swap point cost.

I think shorting above 145 still makes sense because the trading profits may outweigh the swap points cost (about US$550/month for 100k lots) if the USD were to go down below 140 again like it did earlier this year (152- in Oct 22 to 127+ in Jan 23, 2500 pips). Likewise, going long at 145+ risk that swap points earnings (about US$400/month for 100k lots) may be more than offset by trading losses. Even a 100 pip move is US$700, higher than both US$550 and US$400. We saw a 1100 pip move in the last month.
  • #87,599
  • Dec 17, 2023 2:05pm Dec 17, 2023 2:05pm
USDJPY price action on the daily time frame turned sideways as it tackles the 141.570/140.600 horizontal support area (sandy brown). This was after a bearish breakdown of the 145.250/144.00 horizontal support zone (green), which has been in place since August. Although the dominant technical structure is bullish, we may still see further southward move before a northward turnaround.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #87,600
  • Edited 3:11pm Dec 17, 2023 2:26pm | Edited 3:11pm
I don't think I will see a major change in the BOJ policy in the next 6 months, but with US interest rates coming down, usdjpy may no longer see 151, but if there is a signal that US interest rates won't go down in the next 6 months, Wait for 150
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