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Manipulated Markets: A Strategy To Profit

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  • Do you believe financial markets are manipulated?
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  • #1
  • First Post: Edited Dec 22, 2023 1:35pm Dec 6, 2023 4:16pm | Edited Dec 22, 2023 1:35pm

Manipulated Markets: A Strategy To Profit

I would like to present an extremely powerful strategy that does not rely on standard indicators (99.9% of indicators are made up of 2 factors, mainly being historical/current price but also time) or ‘SMC’ trash etc - stuff with no real theory/baseless claims. But a strategy (and just the tip of the iceberg) that incorporates and focuses on a 3rd variable, instantly giving you an edge over other more classic market participants.

This is of course the art of market participant analysis (or more commonly known as just volume analysis). In 2023 it is a fairly well known fact that financial markets are, and by nature, manipulated. Using tools I will discuss later we can actually spot this manipulation (or just aggressive activity to be objective as possible) in real time and in the past and use them in conjunction with each other!

In terms of manipulation, the spot FX market is no different to any other, here is a scary fact: Many, many different players take part in actively trading, investing or otherwise participating in the forex market everyday such as;

 

  1. Commercial banks
  2. Hedge funds
  3. Real money
  4. Retail traders
  5. Sovereign wealth funds
  6. Prime brokers
  7. Retail brokers
  8. Proprietary trading firms
  9. Money transfer/remittance companies
  10. Foreign exchange fixing
  11. Commercial companies
  12. Governments and central banks


And yet, quite shockingly but undeniably factual, just 10 individual banks control around 80% of all spot currency volume;

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Just for a second, begin to imagine the insane edge that this provides them. This is their game that we are playing. Fascinating, here's another much more recent, 43rd annual survey of liquidity consumption in the global forex market by Euromoney. This is the top 10 overall by market share in 2021;

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They both show an equally grim picture, no matter how great your faith in any institution/firm/bank may be. Okay enough theory, but just to drive the point home if there are still any doubts, simply search up some variation such as ‘bank trader manipulation / conspiracy / fines / lawsuits / evidence’ as well as specific bank names…

The actual real ideology and theory behind the strategy provides us with a mission and a mindset as to what we actually want to achieve, unlike the infinite trash - green crosses red and so on strategies with no value and more importantly no meaning (no ability to specifically define your edge and definitely no meaningful theory behind it). What do we want to visualize in this specific strategy I'm presenting?

 

  1. Where the largest market participants were active (trading) both within a specific time period (standard volume analysis - volume by time) but most importantly, the exact price levels where they traded (in-depth volume analysis - volume by price).
  2. When/where/how volumes are traded once price comes back into contact with these predetermined, high volume areas/clusters (Aggressive? Heavy? Bullish/Bearish? etc).

It's that simple… so lets start! The tools we will be using to visualize the above two goals are 1) Volume Profile and 2) Order Flow respectively.

Before we go further there are some important things to note. I use and is recommended to use FX futures for analysis for greater precision and accuracy on all levels, this is called level 2 market data. There are ways to use spot forex data to input into these tools, but the result is always less accurate. Next I will go on the assumption that you the reader and trader are already familiar with the tools listed, however if not I will try my best to label everything I can, so you can delve further into researching the tools if needed.

Strategy description/overview:


Using the prior day's trading range and volume distribution (via volume profile) to categorize, confirm and then look for significant volume clusters within the trading range of which we will look to trade a rejection of this level(s) if price makes its way to the area in question. We will confirm this and add confluence/propensity to the trade by analysing order flow when price arrives at these areas, looking for a multitude of confirmations - Bid x Ask Imbalances, Accumulation, Large Limit Orders, Delta, Cumulative Delta Divergence etc.
To set up:

  1. A fixed period, daily volume profile, showing (In detail) the volume clusters within the day’s trading range.
  2. Order flow (numbers bars) showing bid x ask volumes, delta, cumulative delta etc.
  3. Spot FX & FX futures level 2 market data


The following post will be straight from my old trading journal associated with this strategy and lastly I am not selling anything, nor will I ever even link any product etc. My only motives are the hope of expanding my trading network with other serious, talented traders. I intend this thread to facilitate the discussion of all aspects of that strategy including - general related questions, testing/research, real time trading and the potential evolution of the strategy.

Seeking Fair Value
  • #2
  • Edited 4:52pm Dec 6, 2023 4:30pm | Edited 4:52pm
Quoting makingmoves
Manipulated Markets: A Strategy To Profit I would like to present an extremely powerful strategy that does not rely on standard indicators (99.9% of indicators are made up of 2 factors, time x price) or ‘SMC’ etc - stuff with no real theory/baseless claims trash. But a strategy (and just the tip of the iceberg) that incorporates and focuses on a 3rd variable, instantly giving you an edge over other more classic market participants. This is of course the art of market participant analysis (or more commonly known as just volume analysis), in 2023...

The 4 Daily Volume Profiles used for context.

  1. ‘D’ Profile (Most Common)

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This profile is almost always accompanied by a ranging market (buyers and sellers are in equilibrium) this could be large players accumulating their positions. The day after this profile the highest and lowest high volume nodes (HVN’s) are to be seen as potential support and resistance areas. This is to be confirmed by order flow and price action upon a reaction to one of these levels. Stop loss to be placed at the nearest low volume area BUT not pass another HVN. (Range trading - mean reverting = not ideal for large stop losses) Take profit at the previous days (the ‘D’ shaped volume distribution) P.O.C (Minimum 1:1.75 RR ratio)
If price breaks out of the ‘D’ profile (an actual breakout NOT weak pushing or stop hunting above/below) then the side the breakout occurs on becomes support/resistance (the original levels that side). However in this situation the P.O.C of the ‘D’ profile can also be used at a significant level as well as the 90% of P.O.C volume nodes. You trade in the direction of the breakout when/if price returns there and is confirmed.
SL: Behind the high volume area that price reacted to.
TP For Breakout of the ‘D’ Profile Trade: 1 : 1.75RR / P.O.C

  1. ‘P’ Profile (Uptrend Usually)

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The P or any profile is never perfect (that's trading) thus comes a bit of subjectivity. I have devised many rules to stay objective as possible and not fall trap to subjective/impulsive trading. The P (top part) is to only be seen as S/R if the price continues to rally after creating the P (can assume it was large players accumulating). However, more common from my backtests, the price retraces the next day after the rotation the previous day (making the ‘P’ profile). We can expect a decent retracement + stop hunt so the first HVN/Area is to not be seen as viable S/R to trade off of. The second and third levels however, are fair game! Obviously these levels must also be confirmed with order flow/price action upon a reaction. The ‘P’ profile can appear in a downtrend IF price and volume profile are diverging, do not trade it! Methodology makes sense that if price has stopped trending and reversed the P profile can be traded.
SL: pass the initial reaction HVN/Area + 1 other HVN/Area (closest to initial level) then placed at the nearest low volume area behind these two HVN’s. (Trend continuation trading = bigger stops affordable)
TP: At previous days high/low (trend continuation) as these levels often work as S/R zones. (Minimum 1:1.75 RR ratio)

 

  1. ‘b’ Profile (Downtrend Usually)

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The exact opposite of the ‘P’ profile, the same rules apply. If the ‘b’ profile appears at the end in an uptrend, do not trade it!
SL: pass the initial reaction HVN/Area + 1 other HVN/Area (closest to initial level) then placed at the nearest low volume area behind these two HVN’s. (Trend continuation = bigger stops affordable)
TP: At previous days high/low (trend continuation) as these levels often work as S/R zones. (Minimum a 1:1.75 RR ratio)

 

  1. Least common: ‘I’ Profile (Aggressive Trend/ Price Movement)

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Usually the result of aggressive buying/selling where the largest players were manipulating price sharply in their direction, you trade in whatever direction price was going. Hardest to identify & trade but i have rules to help. If P.O.C is same width no mater what profile instead of looking for a ‘thin’ profile, look for separated volume clusters across the whole day and not clustered like D,b,P profile parts. High volume areas themselves are not used as S/R in this profile context. Only Point of controls, value area highs and lows can be used as potential S/R. Of course this must be confirmed by looking for aggressive/passive players using order flow and price action at the level.
SL: pass the initial reaction Area + 1 other HVN/Area (closest to initial level) then placed at the nearest low volume area behind these two HVN’s. (Trend continuation = bigger stops affordable)
TP: At nearest untested days value area high/low (VAH/VAL) for P.O.C bounces only (Minimum a 1:1.75 RR ratio) however not unrealistic targets from months ago etc. VAH/VAL bounces a standard 1:1.75 RR ratio to to be used.

The following post will be about order flow and then the step-by-step process and rules:
Seeking Fair Value
  • #3
  • Edited 4:52pm Dec 6, 2023 4:41pm | Edited 4:52pm
Quoting makingmoves
{quote} The 4 Daily Volume Profiles used for context. ‘D’ Profile (Most Common) {image} This profile is almost always accompanied by a ranging market (buyers and sellers are in equilibrium) this could be large players accumulating their positions. The day after this profile the highest and lowest high volume nodes (HVN’s) are to be seen as potential support and resistance areas. This is to be confirmed by order flow and price action upon a reaction to one of these levels. Stop loss to be placed at the nearest low volume area BUT not pass another...

The Confirmation of Volume Related Trading Levels Using Order Flow.


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Imagine the first picture above shows price coming down into a high volume cluster (for simplicity). What do you see? Is this a good time to buy? The answer would probably be yes, why? You see the first reaction (possibly too volatile to enter initially) and where price is now, aggressive buyers (the green highlighted colours on the ask side) started to become active before price turned. This can be explained via Auction Market Theory however for simplicity again (and saving future conversation on the thread) I won't go into how this strategy also incorporates AMT. You then see the current bearish candle in the exact same place now showing the exact same thing; aggressive buyers are now present and have/are entering the market (shown via the imbalances). This along with a price-delta divergence (bearish candle + positive delta = bullish divergence) and cumulative delta being extremely positive on the day (more activity on the ask throughout the day) gives you quite a few extra confirmations / propensity to the trade.


The second picture shows what followed.

Delta + Cumulative Delta For Confirmation

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When all other conditions and confirmations are met, the delta and/or cumulative delta must be in your direction upon the entry candle. This confirms overall whether in this particular footprint (delta) or over the whole day (Cum. Delta) the majority of orders were on your side of the market (ideally).

The following post will have the step-by-step process and rules:
Seeking Fair Value
  • #4
  • Dec 6, 2023 4:47pm Dec 6, 2023 4:47pm
Quoting makingmoves
{quote} The Confirmation of Volume Related Trading Levels Using Order Flow. {image} Imagine the first picture above shows price coming down into a high volume cluster (for simplicity). What do you see? Is this a good time to buy? The answer would probably be yes, why? You see the first reaction (possibly too volatile to enter initially) and where price is now, aggressive buyers (the green highlighted colours on the ask side) started to become active before price turned. This can be explained via Auction Market Theory however for simplicity again...

The Steps:

  1. Identify the last daily profile and categorize it (D,P,b,I Profiles)
  2. Once/if price reaches the level before the next day look for confirmation via order flow and price action;

    1. The confirmations via order flow are: Aggressive/Passive participants in your direction ideally creating imbalances. Accumulation on both bid x ask may appear at the high volume level/area, as well as overall one side of the market continuously stronger and larger (x) then the other side at every price level. Once confirmed via orders, delta/cumulative delta must be in your direction upon entry candle.
    2. Price action confirmation atm is simply a bullish/bearish candlestick in your direction. (Data & Testing needed)


  3. Identify suitable low volume areas for stop loss (while following all rules) using the previous day's volume profile.
  4. Identify where to place TP either by the previous days volume profile rules or the fixed RR ratio of 1:1.75
  5. No moving SL to BE in this strategy! This allows for the ever increasing intraday noise in today's markets.


The Rules To Remain Objective:

  1. Tested and proved profitability on EURUSD only
  2. NO TRADES BEFORE 5AM! (Newest rule addition)
  3. Minimum RR Ratio of 1:1.75
  4. No moving SL to BE at any point. Can exit just before rollover if needed.
  5. Exit if signal to take opposite side of trade and take opposite side (D profiles).
  6. P & b profiles; the largest cluster, the p and the b themselves can only be traded if price breaks above that day or the day after. Same with D profiles, can trade the opposite side if prices break out of the D profile then test the same areas it broke through but from the opposite side.
  7. 2 Trades/setups a day max. Even if you were not present to take the trade!
  8. Levels tested during rollover/ illiquid times: no trade at those levels.
  9. Price has to close above/below level to enter (5min chart for this), otherwise is it a successful reaction?
  10. Ignore/avoid reactions that happened during a news event and now are far away from the reaction, as the stop loss will be way too large for the market post news event. To be objective this could be a large % of the currency pairs average daily range.
  11. ‘D’ profile breakout S/R role reversal only usable if there has been an actual breakout and not prices gently creeping higher (no aggression/no manipulation to trade off of)
  12. ‘D’ Profile stops behind the reaction HVN/ high volume area level (mean reversion = smaller stop). ‘P/b/I’ profiles stop loss is to go behind an extra layer of HVN/Area. (Trend continuation = larger stop affordable)
  13. Has to be significant aggressive/passive sellers at reaction level for it to be confirmed, imbalances are used for this to see objective relative aggressiveness, on occasion extreme high volumes on one side, or even both (Accumulation), can also be used if there are no imbalances and one side is dominating (larger orders) then the other at every price level.
  14. Delta and/or cumulative delta must be positive/negative in your direction long/short respectively to confirm the entry candle.
  15. Don't trade breakouts if the gap which formed the breakout has not yet been filled, instead see if there is a level coinciding with the closing of the gap.

Seeking Fair Value
  • #5
  • Edited Dec 7, 2023 9:48am Dec 6, 2023 5:59pm | Edited Dec 7, 2023 9:48am
Quoting makingmoves
{quote} The Steps: Identify the last daily profile and categorize it (D,P,b,I Profiles) Once/if price reaches the level before the next day look for confirmation via order flow and price action; The confirmations via order flow are: Aggressive/Passive participants in your direction ideally creating imbalances. Accumulation on both bid x ask may appear at the high volume level/area, as well as overall one side of the market continuously stronger and larger (x) then the other side at every price level. Once confirmed via orders, delta/cumulative delta...

That concludes the introduction of this strategy, now a brief Q&A about the strategy/thread:


Q) Where/how did you learn this strategy?
A) Apart from reading the odd thing online, I initially learned about manipulated markets and volume profile from the books of a guy called Trader Dale. They taught me the categorization of volume profiles mainly. Not the be all or end all but a big stepping stone for me in creating this objective as possible trading process. Order Flow I have been studying for years (all for free online and via books) and I have based other strategies on order flow confirmations, so it was a natural addition.

Q) Why does price react to these volume clusters?
A) The largest market participants, while they will always dominate the market due to their size, have a problem none of us have. The problem is having too much money! No matter how they transact and enter/exit the market, ultimately we will be able to see their massive volumes via volume profile and their aggressiveness via order flow!

When price returns to these areas where extremely large volumes were accumulated we can expect:

1) Those same large market participants to defend their trading positions and aggressively buy/sell the currency while also taking advantage of this extra liquidity to enter into their full positions;

And/Or

2) Other large, smart market participants likely see this area of volume just like we do, and trade accordingly;

And/Or

3) Other large, smart market participants likely see this area of volume and don't want to risk losing their profit heading into this significant area and as such, start covering their positions (exiting) as price reaches the area helping create a rejection of the area and/or they take advantage of this liquidity and enter into their large positions.

Q) Why did you share this strategy?
A) I aim to contribute value to the trading community, as well as receive value from other traders. Honestly I am hesitant about sharing my most up to date strategies I trade today, but I intend to release them all eventually.

I see so much nonsense being spread about how markets function as well as pathetic trading systems with no edge or theory behind it, I felt the need to share an actual meaningful strategy. Whether anyone sees it or not, at least I did my part.

Q) Do you have to use order flow / level 2 market data?
A) Ideally yes, if you want an edge in today's markets, do you really expect it to be easy? Futures are centralised, meaning every single market participant sees the exact same price & volume. Forex is decentralised, each broker shows a slightly different price and will never give accurate detailed volume data. You can and probably should still trade with a regular forex broker because its a bit cheaper (transaction costs wise) then trading FX futures directly, maybe this will change in the future.

Q) If the strategy is so objective, why cant it be automated?
A) Unfortunately the strategy is not 100% objective. The selection of trading levels (volume clusters) and the analysis of order flow introduces a potentially significant level of subjectivity however, if you are well disciplined, trained and take risk management seriously this can be an additional source of edge!

Q) How does the strategy relate to Auction Market Theory?
A) You will, more often than not, find yourself trading mean reversion style based trades when the market is balanced and the opposite when unbalanced. This isn't a hard rule though as Auction Market Theory was not considered when the strategy was created.

Q) What's the future of the thread?
A) Apart from what I outlined in the first post, ill begin by posting old trades and analysis of the strategy in action, of which I have many hundreds. From there, if I get the time, I will come back and actively look to trade/refine/master/evolve the strategy publicly.
Seeking Fair Value
  • #6
  • Dec 6, 2023 7:25pm Dec 6, 2023 7:25pm
I’m exhausted from just reading this brother
  • #7
  • Dec 6, 2023 7:39pm Dec 6, 2023 7:39pm
Quoting MachineLearn
I’m exhausted from just reading this brother
I am sorry my friend, I am not the best / most literate person and understand the whole thing might be quite convoluted, a fair bit of it did come from one of my trading journals. I tried to only initially post what needs to be posted, for people to at least hopefully get the general idea but I definitely need to touch up on some things for sure
Seeking Fair Value
  • #8
  • Dec 6, 2023 8:19pm Dec 6, 2023 8:19pm
Quoting makingmoves
{quote} I am sorry my friend, I am not the best / most literate person and understand the whole thing might be quite convoluted, a fair bit of it did come from one of my trading journals. I tried to only initially post what needs to be posted, for people to at least hopefully get the general idea but I definitely need to touch up on some things for sure
I subscribe your topic. I am interested to learn this strategy.
We only trade when there is AGREEMENT. Get 1% Better Each Day!
  • #9
  • Dec 7, 2023 5:47am Dec 7, 2023 5:47am
Quoting makingmoves
{quote} The Confirmation of Volume Related Trading Levels Using Order Flow. {image} Imagine the first picture above shows price coming down into a high volume cluster (for simplicity). What do you see? Is this a good time to buy? The answer would probably be yes, why? You see the first reaction (possibly too volatile to enter initially) and where price is now, aggressive buyers (the green highlighted colours on the ask side) started to become active before price turned. This can be explained via Auction Market Theory however for simplicity again...
Hello
my friend
very nice contribution, had to see if our data is synchronised.
i have no idea about manipulating the markets , you can only learn .
I am glad that you have time for this.
one disadvantage is not everyone in ff has the future , in the foreground the cfd is traded
.
best regards kette
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  • #10
  • Dec 7, 2023 6:03am Dec 7, 2023 6:03am
Quoting makingmoves
{quote} I am sorry my friend, I am not the best / most literate person and understand the whole thing might be quite convoluted, a fair bit of it did come from one of my trading journals. I tried to only initially post what needs to be posted, for people to at least hopefully get the general idea but I definitely need to touch up on some things for sure
Hi Makingmoves,

You are clearly thinking outside of the traditional trading box as the saying goes. I just finish reading your idea & find it most interesting.
Now if you will continue to educate those willing to learn & ignore the naysayers that will surely come, this thread has much merit & should save future traders from going the usual path that is usually take. I wish you the best going forward. You may just be turning on the 's for some. I will follow along from the sidelines.
Best of trades to you.
____________________________________________________________
  • #11
  • Dec 7, 2023 6:26am Dec 7, 2023 6:26am
You are absolutely right about the indicators. I came to these conclusions years ago. They just make patterned graphics and nothing else. They draw a mathematical model based on the price, the price now and the price in the past, they do not predict the future! Many people waste their time with them. Congratulations, I will follow the thread with interest.
  • #12
  • Edited 9:35am Dec 7, 2023 9:22am | Edited 9:35am
Quoting kette
{quote} Hello my friend very nice contribution, had to see if our data is synchronised. i have no idea about manipulating the markets , you can only learn . I am glad that you have time for this. one disadvantage is not everyone in ff has the future , in the foreground the cfd is traded . best regards kette {image}
Hi Kette, thank you its great to see you here mate, it sure does look like we have the same FX futures data feed I just had a brief glance and it all adds up! To clarify I use CME FX futures data (6E - EURUSD).

Absolutely my friend, all we can do it strive to learn something new everyday and focus on the process, the outcome takes care of its self

You are absolutely right, many traders don't have FX futures data however, they can if they choose! But either way this provides us an additional edge over other market participants.
Seeking Fair Value
  • #13
  • Dec 7, 2023 9:33am Dec 7, 2023 9:33am
Quoting acetrader
{quote} Hi Makingmoves, You are clearly thinking outside of the traditional trading box as the saying goes. I just finish reading your idea & find it most interesting. Now if you will continue to educate those willing to learn & ignore the naysayers that will surely come, this thread has much merit & should save future traders from going the usual path that is usually take. I wish you the best going forward. You may just be turning on the 's for some. I will follow along from the sidelines. Best of trades to you. ____________________________________________________________...
Hello acetrader,

Thank you very much for the kind words, I appreciate your support and completely agree with everything you said, I will continue this thread and others regardless of any naysayers! I too do believe this thread and the ideology behind it, also incorporating Auction Market Theory, has infinite value and hopefully will help all types of traders steer clear of the infinite noise surrounding retail trading.

That is the goal, if this thread sparks a spiral of further thoughts and strategy ideas, its done its job! Thanks again Ace, trade safe.
Seeking Fair Value
  • #14
  • Dec 7, 2023 9:42am Dec 7, 2023 9:42am
Quoting kompira
You are absolutely right about the indicators. I came to these conclusions years ago. They just make patterned graphics and nothing else. They draw a mathematical model based on the price, the price now and the price in the past, they do not predict the future! Many people waste their time with them. Congratulations, I will follow the thread with interest.
Hi kompira, I see you have been trading and on FF for a long time! You are absolutely right, I 100% agree, many start and finish their entire trading journey/career without ever realizing this fact.

Thank you for following mate, trade safe.
Seeking Fair Value
  • #15
  • Edited 4:42pm Dec 7, 2023 11:12am | Edited 4:42pm
Quoting makingmoves
{quote} That concludes the introduction of this strategy, now a brief Q&A about the strategy/thread: Q) Where/how did you learn this strategy? A) Apart from reading the odd thing online, I initially learned about manipulated markets and volume profile from the books of a guy called Trader Dale. They taught me the categorization of volume profiles mainly. Not the be all or end all but a big stepping stone for me in creating this objective as possible trading process. Order Flow I have been studying for years (all for free online and via books) and...

Trades from the start of 2023 (#1)


As I said, ill begin by posting old trades in my journal, starting from 2023 so its still relevant as we go into 2024 and I don't have to spend years going through them all. They will not all be perfect, some will have minimal info, ill do a few trades at a time as I have to copy, paste and format it a bit and fix spelling mistakes etc. If anyone else tests/trades this strategy feel free to post your analysis and so on.

Note: This is valuable for me too as while looking back, especially order flow related, confirmations I use today are not all present in these setups and tells me I need to be stricter with my confirmation selection process. However it is nice to see my continuous improvement of the discretionary trading that's required when using these tools.

04/01/2023 - 1:50PM (entry at same price but bit later) +2%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Context: Yesterday's B profile (downtrend), at second bump (volume cluster) of B profile.
Confirmation: N/A (Maybe was drunk and forgot to fill in xD)

05/01/2023 - 1:45PM -1%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: p profile.PNG Size: 9 KB


Context: At yesterday's P profile 2nd bump (not trading 1st bump)
Confirmation: Positive Delta, large volumes (possible absorption) on both bid x ask and 2 imbalances at the reaction area.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Warnings / Notes: LOADS of unfinished business under entry long… Subjective but there is a certain amount of of UB’s in between my entry and SL, these are like magnets the price:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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OVER 7! Price soon turned quickly to finish these imperfections. Could have avoided trade with this knowledge however, I need more data and testing to make objective rules for the best outcome.
I closed the previous days short in profit upon this entry, as stated above I could have also held onto this position if future data shows this would be more profitable avoiding large amounts of stacked unfinished business!

06/01/2023 - 1:35PM -1%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Context: At yesterday's B part of the b profile after breaking below it, news hit and came straight to the P.O.C.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Confirmation: As price created an aggressive wick up to the high volume area, large volumes started to appear on the ask at the top (large passive sellers entering) as well as heavy volumes on both bid x ask on multiple price levels (accumulation). Aggressive sellers appeared as well within the bearish candle creating inverted imbalances Delta and cum delta negative for extra confirmation.

Notes: Good process, bad outcome = good trade, do the exact same thing again and again.
Seeking Fair Value
  • #16
  • Edited 12:42pm Dec 7, 2023 12:28pm | Edited 12:42pm
Nice thread. A little too much info for me to study all at once, but the younger brains in here can get it in one reading.

As noted from other posters in here, you will get the naysayers rebuking your posts. The "Forex is random" crowd like Mingary will descend on your posts "in order to save everyone" from falling victim to the evil forex markets. The sad fact is these saviors of the little guy, the uninformed traders, are people who never learned how financial markets work. They lost in the markets so, to mask their inability to make money, they blame the markets and say no one can make money but the banks or market makers.

It is true the market maker's do have the edge. The MM's not only collect commissions (or spread as it's called in forex) but they play both sides to minimize risk and often trade against your position. But without manipulation by the banks, there would be no markets. A random market would eventually bankrupt the banks!

Just keep posting and clarifying as you go for the believers and ignore the non-believers. I think you have a fine thread going so far.

Edit - I don't mean anything derogatory toward Mingary. Every conversion I have had with Mingary has been pleasant and humorous, without insults or harsh criticism. Just we have different understanding on making money in financial markets.

Happy Trades To You,
NB
Ecclesiastes 1:9
  • #17
  • Dec 7, 2023 1:28pm Dec 7, 2023 1:28pm
Quoting newbegger
Nice thread. A little too much info for me to study all at once, but the younger brains in here can get it in one reading. As noted from other posters in here, you will get the naysayers rebuking your posts. The "Forex is random" crowd like Mingary will descend on your posts "in order to save everyone" from falling victim to the evil forex markets. The sad fact is these saviors of the little guy, the uninformed traders, are people who never learned how financial markets work. They lost in the markets so, to mask their inability to make money, they...
agreed.................
  • #18
  • Edited 3:05pm Dec 7, 2023 1:35pm | Edited 3:05pm
Quoting newbegger
Nice thread. A little too much info for me to study all at once, but the younger brains in here can get it in one reading. As noted from other posters in here, you will get the naysayers rebuking your posts. The "Forex is random" crowd like Mingary will descend on your posts "in order to save everyone" from falling victim to the evil forex markets. The sad fact is these saviors of the little guy, the uninformed traders, are people who never learned how financial markets work. They lost in the markets so, to mask their inability to make money, they...
Hello newbegger, I understand and appreciate you even taking the time to have a look at the thread!

I do agree with you, MM's have a big edge but also any sufficiently large financial institution that actively trades to make a profit, naturally has a more significant edge then we (individual traders) will ever have just down to the amount of capital that they/we manage alone. That aside, I do completely agree with you again, without these large institutions providing liquidity and banks facilitating the transactions and taking speculative positions etc we wouldn't have the market we know today and there definitely wouldn't be any price discovery (Trends/Volatility) to trade off of.

The unique thing about trading like this is, the manipulation (or aggression - that moves price) often (not always) benefits you and you'll wish for more... In that that way trading becomes a lot healthier, psychologically wise, as how can you be annoyed at something that over time is making you money?

Thank you for the words of support, I will continue to do as you say, post and clarify as I go while ignoring any naysayers. Thanks again, trade safe.
Seeking Fair Value
  • #19
  • Dec 7, 2023 4:40pm Dec 7, 2023 4:40pm
Quoting makingmoves
{quote} Trades from the start of 2023 As I said, ill begin by posting old trades in my journal, starting from 2023 so its still relevant as we go into 2024 and I don't have to spend years going through them all. They will not all be perfect, some will have minimal info, ill do a few trades at a time as I have to copy, paste and format it a bit and fix spelling mistakes etc. If anyone else tests/trades this strategy feel free to post your analysis and so on. Note: This is valuable for me too as while looking back, especially order flow related, confirmations...

Trades from the start of 2023 (#2)


Making my way through these trades, I should make clear that the rule about 'no trades before 5am' had not yet been implemented in some of these trades (including the trade below).

11/01/2023 1:05AM -1% Trade 1
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Context: At first high volume area of yesterday's D profile. Definitely not the most distinct volume cluster (separated cluster).
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Confirmation: The whole chart is littered with inverted imbalances and consistent negative deltas. At the first reaction candle, passive sellers likely entered, the drive away was full of inverted imbalances representing aggressive sellers. Delta goes negative. Bearish engulfing candle for price action confirmation.
5:55AM (Trade 2/2) +1.75%
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Context: At 2nd top high volume area of yesterday's D profile. Definitely not the most distinct volume cluster (separated cluster).
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Confirmation: As price rallied, delta struggled to stay positive until one blowout candle with a wick with larger volumes on the ask than bid (passive participants waiting at the turning point). Instantly followed by an bearish engulfing candle, full of inverted imbalances representing aggressive sellers. Delta goes negative.

12/01/2023 - 12:45AM - +3.5%
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Context: At the last and most significant upside high volume area/cluster of yesterday's 'D' distribution volume profile.

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Confirmation: At the original drive up to the last upside high volume area I wasn't sure if the imbalances represented aggressive buyers trying to rally the market or passive sellers entering. After waiting for more confirmation the next was a bearish candle (price action confirmation) that was fairly decent volume for the Asian session, the next candle was also bearish, an inverted imbalance with good volume formed representing aggressive sellers in comparison to buyers. Delta was negative on both candles. The added candle was under a pip so no worries about distance from SL. All the confirmation I needed, so I entered after the imbalance candle closed.

Notes / Warnings: CPI news came out AFTER i won trade, but if it hasn't won yet, it would have been a very good idea to get out before news otherwise would be a loss no matter if the TP was hit after.
Seeking Fair Value
  • #20
  • Dec 8, 2023 6:58am Dec 8, 2023 6:58am
Quoting makingmoves
Manipulated Markets: A Strategy To Profit I would like to present an extremely powerful strategy that does not rely on standard indicators (99.9% of indicators are made up of 2 factors, time x price) or ‘SMC’ trash etc - stuff with no real theory/baseless claims. But a strategy (and just the tip of the iceberg) that incorporates and focuses on a 3rd variable, instantly giving you an edge over other more classic market participants. This is of course the art of market participant analysis (or more commonly known as just volume analysis), in 2023...
Do your brain a favour, read Laura T's Roadmap thread.
All you touch and all you see, is all your life will ever be.
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