Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles | Page 587 | Forex Factory

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Analysis and Trading based on Envelopes, Waves, Cycles

  • #11,721
  • Dec 1, 2023 2:54am Dec 1, 2023 2:54am
Quoting Thtpro
{quote} Yep Hurst was way ahead of his time and produced some great work with cycles, CMA's and FLD's
Thtpro you are interested in the Square of Nine. This just shows me that you are interested in "brain stimulation". That is surely good for your brain, but without practical consequences on your trading. Your last chart demonstrates it clearly to everybody.

Why the square of Nine is not tradable ?

Because :

a) because you have to select first an initial starting point - on which basis ? Gann gave us no precise methodology to do this selection. Then we just infered we can use Tops or Lows . But which one is the best? Moreover Lows or Tops are not of the same value, weight, influence within Price Action. Hence the results will different.

b) Gann selected Zero as a starting point for choosing his SQ9 increment with 1 for incrementation. For Time and Price. What this increment is not 1. What if the increment differs between Price and Time ?

Very quickly the guys using the Square Nine used other increments more adapted to the Price Range they dealt with. Is there a rational methodology to choose this increment ? Not to my knowledge

c) As for the SQ9 results first Gann idea was to emphasize the numerical results located on the Horizontal Axis (0-180°), the Vertical Axis (90- 270°) or the Diagonal Axis (45, 135, 225, 315°)

Problem is you generally get a mix of those axis (or close of) when you position your Tops and or Lows.

As you can not draw some operative rule from it, you just end with the kind of chart you posted here. Looking nice and attractive but without any practical consequences.

IMHO The reason is SQ9 is based on too many parameters we do not master and generates too many results we can not discriminate to choose the operative ones with confidence.

With a SQ9 at best you show in hindsight on a chart oh this Top was on this axis and this Low on this other Axis.
  • #11,722
  • Dec 1, 2023 3:16am Dec 1, 2023 3:16am
Quoting Thtpro
Following on from the SQ9 post - we saw that it was hit and miss, too many lines on the chart and you'd never be able to formulate a decent trading plan from, but we saw that the EURUSD turned and twisted on a lot of those key numbers on the SQ9, namely the cardinal and fixed cross points - so as a concept it has merits and as its basically a square root calculator proves that mathematics is at work in the market(s) Nothing beats, planetary analysis in any market, but some don't like to use planets, so we'll look at basic time counts: Here, I'm...
THTPro

great charts and great analysis. I will elaborate later on the 1 Year, 3 Years and 54 Months "cycles"

Thanks for your post
  • #11,723
  • Dec 1, 2023 5:47am Dec 1, 2023 5:47am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} Thtpro you are interested in the Square of Nine. This just shows me that you are interested in "brain stimulation". That is surely good for your brain, but without practical consequences on your trading. Your last chart demonstrates it clearly to everybody. Why the square of Nine is not tradable ? Because : a) because you have to select first an initial starting point - on which basis ? Gann gave us no precise methodology to do this selection. Then we just infered we can use Tops or Lows . But which one is the best? Moreover Lows or Tops...
Exactly - that is exactly what I was conveying to Acetrader - lots of hits on the sq9 key axis numbers but can't trade with confidence, based on generic factors such as months or the sq9 numbers and I was showing that but.......

I showed in the 1st reply to Acetrader, you include a planet or 2 that sync with the market AND those numbers show up on the SQ9 - which was shown in the GOLD example - Which I've traded for years when its due, as its an ultra reliable cycle and its showing that even planetary degrees show up on the sq9 in an orderly fashion from which you can base a trading strategy from - there are other, I just showed those 2 as an example

The last sq12 example was shown to develop things, if patterns emerge, then maybe they can be relevant and tradeable, which again from the highlighted cycles shown, you can develop a trading strategy from - not saying its brilliant, but for a new trader starting out looking at things, you can start to pull bits and pieces from the charts and start to build strategies from

Exactly - You need to use the right starting point as Gann said, however, you will find number harmonics at major highs and lows, that show signatures of the right starting point and as Gann said Track backwards like the hunters to find the prey/starting point - I just started mine as close to 1st Jan 1999 as possible for this example

I post to get people to think, not to show them complete systems - If a cycle shows up and it repeats, then they need to worked out a strategy to trade if its a low or a high and to see if a method, in this case the sq9 showed up but wasn't useable, but the square 12 was with a bit of tweaking and realising that its a complete static cycle and the markets aren't static

See you all in Spring

THT
  • #11,724
  • Dec 1, 2023 6:41am Dec 1, 2023 6:41am
Quoting Thtpro
{quote} Exactly - that is exactly what I was conveying to Acetrader - lots of hits on the sq9 key axis numbers but can't trade with confidence, based on generic factors such as months or the sq9 numbers and I was showing that but....... I showed in the 1st reply to Acetrader, you include a planet or 2 that sync with the market AND those numbers show up on the SQ9 - which was shown in the GOLD example - Which I've traded for years when its due, as its an ultra reliable cycle and its showing that even planetary degrees show up on the sq9 in an orderly...
THTPro, you are always welcomed to post your detailed and technical posts on this thread.

I will try to explain exhaustively why I stick to my application of Hurst Trading Tools.

I mainly use Centered Moving Averages (CMA's) in 2 Forms ;

- CMA's used as the Centerline of Envelopes
- CMA's used to determine the Focal Points of the various Price Sinewaves components of the composite final Price Action
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  • #11,725
  • Edited 7:19am Dec 1, 2023 7:03am | Edited 7:19am
let's first study this monthly chart Envelopes of the EURUSD

As you can see this monthly chart :

- includes "most of" EURUSD monthly bars within the black 256 Time Units - 256 Months (21 Years)
- underlines the main Price Action Swings within this Envelope 256
- allows us to have a very precise estimation of the EURUSD Swing Amplitude (32 cents) - well shown by the Blue Envelope 32 Months (close from 3 Years) -
-reveals during the available data period 3 Long Term Waves and their duration

Wave 1 - ABC
Wave 2 - CDE
Wave 3 - EFG or EFH

Note that you have 2 possibilities to locate the end of the third Wave .

If you stick to the previous wave duration (15 years) Wave 3 ends in G
If you stick to the Envelopes System Wave 3 ends in H - all 3 Waves ending on the Lower Boundary of Envelope 256

This is my preferred oprion up to now


-
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  • #11,726
  • Dec 1, 2023 7:52am Dec 1, 2023 7:52am
You can even identify a repetitive pattern showing 2 successive Mid Cycle Dips C and E.

These Mid Cycle Dips strongly indicate that a 30 Year "cycle" could be at work too within your EURUSD Monthly Data series
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  • #11,727
  • Dec 1, 2023 8:18am Dec 1, 2023 8:18am
Let's now zoom on the previous monthly chart .

This chart shows more than 20 years of Data
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  • #11,728
  • Edited 8:40am Dec 1, 2023 8:27am | Edited 8:40am
You do not need to buy an expensive software or to scrutinize the stars to identify visually a sequence of "Waves" and suspect even some "cyclicality" within this series of Waves

You can even :
- count the number of waves (with your fingers)
- measure the time elapsed between the begnning of the first Wave (April 2001) and the End of the last Wave (October 22) - 21.5 Years = 1118 weeks

hence the average duration of these 8 Waves is 140 weeks.

Something like 2 2/3 Years
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  • #11,729
  • Dec 1, 2023 9:15am Dec 1, 2023 9:15am
you can also milk from this chart additional informations
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  • #11,730
  • Dec 2, 2023 3:23am Dec 2, 2023 3:23am
Absolutely - I agree, the envelopes nicely follow price action and if you dissect timings you can garner a huge amount of information to form approximates from and averages - there like Tunnels through the air!

I tend to look at everything just to see if any other clues pop out for more precision timing, as I just find amazing how numbers come together and especially the pattern that some of them make on Gann's sq's - shows you something is structured and the markets obey those Instructions or people buy/sell in accordance to those Instructions - but you don't need it or to know it to beat the market or make a living from - it just provides that extra confidence

THT
  • #11,731
  • Dec 2, 2023 3:51am Dec 2, 2023 3:51am
Quoting Thtpro
Absolutely - I agree, the envelopes nicely follow price action and if you dissect timings you can garner a huge amount of information to form approximates from and averages - there like Tunnels through the air! I tend to look at everything just to see if any other clues pop out for more precision timing, as I just find amazing how numbers come together and especially the pattern that some of them make on Gann's sq's - shows you something is structured and the markets obey those Instructions or people buy/sell in accordance to those Instructions...
THTPro IMHO your problrm and the problem of ALL "Cycle Analysts" I know of is that you exclusively (in short) focus on the TIME parameter - the question WHEN - when the trend will change ?. And NEVER on the question - WHERE or AT WHICH LEVEL Trend will turn up or down.

It seems that all cycle analysts have integrated the famous Gann sentence " Time is the most important factor ".

Sentence which IMHO is not true and even dangerous in his consequences.

Even if Time and Price are REPRESENTED in the same way on any chart, TIME AND PRICE ARE NOT OF THE SAME NATURE.

TIME always goes forward , PRICE can go BACKWARDS - it is even labeled as a retracement or a rally.

Moreover the guys who are repeating without thinking about the sentence " Time is the most important factor " have IMHO never correctly read a Gann book.

Why ? Because Gann uses at length in all his books the expression " important, very important, the most important etc "

Then if you collect on a notebook all these quotes with the word "important" at the end you ask yourself "what is the most important of the most important ?"
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  • #11,732
  • Edited 4:23am Dec 2, 2023 4:07am | Edited 4:23am
And these excerpts of How to make profits with commodities shows us how frequent is the use of "important" for GANN

Anyway I do not consider that TIME is the most important factor in Trading .

First comes Price because we cash on Price Levels difference.

Time is secondary, not at all minor , but comes after in the hierarchy.

Time shows you the productivity of your move or of your profit X% per Time Unit (minute or year whatever) . It is what is shown and measured by "Gann Angles" Speed and Acceleration

The Murrey Gann System - division by 8 of the Price Range (the Gann Octave ) and the Halfway Point gives you a Roadmap to easily read actual and future moves Up and Down

De facto there is a great intimacy between Time and Price when we trade because we need Time to reach a determined Price Level
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  • #11,733
  • Dec 2, 2023 5:03am Dec 2, 2023 5:03am
Quoting parisboy
{quote} THTPro IMHO your problrm and the problem of ALL "Cycle Analysts" I know of is that you exclusively (in short) focus on the TIME parameter - the question WHEN - when the trend will change ?. And NEVER on the question - WHERE or AT WHICH LEVEL Trend will turn up or down. It seems that all cycle analysts have integrated the famous Gann sentence " Time is the most important factor ". Sentence which IMHO is not true and even dangerous in his consequences. Even if Time and Price are REPRESENTED in the same way on any chart, TIME AND PRICE ARE...
Parisboy,

This will be my last reply as I take a few months off over winter and will be back trading in spring

If you know the time of a turn, you don't really need to know a price level and vice versa, if you know the market will reverse at x £/$ etc, then you don't need to know the time factor

I personally look at EVERYTHING, Price & Time and I'm more obsessed with PRICE than time

I make the bulk of my income/profits from the stock market, which is why most of my analysis is on those areas:

The following charts prove that I look at PRICE as well as TIME and as Gann did, you can use Gann Angles to do BOTH

Time and price prediction for the SP500 BEFORE the event:

TIME prediction was a simple 2009 LOW price converted into WEEKS

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This chart shows in advance another fuzzy logic way to predict turns on the DJIA in time back in 2020:

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This chart shows the follow on from that sequence to get the high in 2022:

The Gann angle timed the top exactly and price

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This shows Jupiter timing the SP500 beautifully along with gann angles which both time and price the chart nice:

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From the TOP:

Shows time, price etc

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this one shows the angles (1 x 1 is PINK) BEFORE the event, as shown above:

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I'm not your generic cycle trader - So far on here all I've shown Acetrader were the links between the sq9 and things, because it was dismissed out of hand, but in fact the sq9 is quite Important in that the relationships between past wars, president deaths, turns in the market can be linked geometrically on the sq9

I then showed a basic sq12 relationship to the EURUSD in simple time basis terms

Its then up to the trader to test, develop and build from -I've just laid the groundwork

and one last one for the future - SP500 Index - Follow the 1 x 1 PINK - I plan to double check all calcs in 2025, but I'm pretty confident

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THT
  • #11,734
  • Dec 2, 2023 5:29am Dec 2, 2023 5:29am
I wish you a nice Pause THTPro
  • #11,735
  • Dec 4, 2023 3:30am Dec 4, 2023 3:30am
Found a way to square price & time on Tradingview charts (all the other methods described on the site aren't correct, imho) using "Gann, time square method". This method uses the Gann square of 9 to determine the price grid lines and to determine the setting to square the chart.
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  • #11,736
  • Dec 4, 2023 4:05am Dec 4, 2023 4:05am
Quoting tmpascoe
Found a way to square price & time on Tradingview charts (all the other methods described on the site aren't correct, imho) using "Gann, time square method". This method uses the Gann square of 9 to determine the price grid lines and to determine the setting to square the chart. {image}
  • #11,737
  • Dec 4, 2023 4:14am Dec 4, 2023 4:14am
Plodding along with
Price but alas No Time !!!
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  • #11,738
  • Dec 4, 2023 6:03am Dec 4, 2023 6:03am
Quoting tmpascoe
Found a way to square price & time on Tradingview charts (all the other methods described on the site aren't correct, imho) using "Gann, time square method". This method uses the Gann square of 9 to determine the price grid lines and to determine the setting to square the chart. {image}
SQ9 and 1*1 angles can't be squared, they are not equal.

SQ9 cycles are bigger in price with each higher cycle.
1*1 always matching price&time.

but you can square waves or periods by dividing price & time equally

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cheers,
"the public is not yet ready for it" W.D. GANN
  • #11,739
  • Dec 4, 2023 6:20am Dec 4, 2023 6:20am
Quoting Kwt4x
{quote} SQ9 and 1*1 angles can't be squared, they are not equal. SQ9 cycles are bigger in price with each higher cycle. 1*1 always matching price&time. but you can square waves or periods by dividing price & time equally {image} {image} cheers,
Good to see you again
  • #11,740
  • Dec 5, 2023 4:59am Dec 5, 2023 4:59am
Having a play with my brokers (other) platform
Some positives
But a few negatives
(none of my Fav Indicators
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