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Swing Trades using Price Action

  • #301
  • Nov 27, 2023 11:33am Nov 27, 2023 11:33am
Today was a bad day. 2 SL, 2 BE and two open transactions are also in the red.
  • #302
  • Nov 27, 2023 8:46pm Nov 27, 2023 8:46pm
Quoting brabus8001
Today was a bad day. 2 SL, 2 BE and two open transactons are also in the red.
It's part of the trading cycle Bro.
You get good and bad parts in the cycle.

After backtesting multiple pairs and finding a pair and timeframe that produces near 80% winners and then deep diving into that pair for 150 consecutive trades only to find that it averages out at just over 60% is quite sobering.
The killer is the long runs of outs that occasionally occur for whatever reason... 10 to 13 straight losers in a row.
Obviously then, risk management may be more important than trade selection.
While it's euphoric to trade 10 to 12 winners on the trot, it is quite disheartening to hit 10 to 12 losers on the trot.

This is where your psychological attitude comes into play. A weak mindset will see the trader seek out a new trading strategy and simply end up more and more confused.
This is why backtesting for years back is needed to buffer the mind against self doubts etc.
NOT auto or algo testing... it MUST be manual trade by trade testing, WITH recorded results... the data collected will be invaluable to you in the future.

Example was yesterday... quite a few setups to choose from and the one I chose lost the full .5% risk I had on the table.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #303
  • Nov 28, 2023 8:15am Nov 28, 2023 8:15am
Not a bad 36 hours or so in BTC.
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In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #304
  • Nov 28, 2023 8:44am Nov 28, 2023 8:44am
I don't have selected currency pairs yet, so I'm entering all pairs. I don't know which ones are best for this strategy. I know that I need a larger selection of inputs because I have too many Sl for TP.I'm wondering what other entry criteria to use to increase the winning percentage. When entering a setup, I always take a screenshot and describe from 1 to 5 how good I think this setup is. On Saturday, after one week, I analyze all entries. I think this is a good way to learn the strategy.
  • #305
  • Nov 28, 2023 9:23am Nov 28, 2023 9:23am
I focus on XAUUSD trades with my own RRR compounding template. I like this strategy (8EMA & 16EMA) as its simplicity.
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We only trade when there is AGREEMENT. Get 1% Better Each Day!
  • #306
  • Nov 28, 2023 10:00am Nov 28, 2023 10:00am
Quoting deaftrader
I focus on XAUUSD trades with my own RRR compounding template. I like this strategy (8EMA & 16EMA) as its simplicity. {image}
One pair is not enough for this strategy. There were 35 transactions on gold this year in H4, including 22 winning ones, which is 63%. of course according to my criteria. I still need to check H1. Does he use RR 2:1? I divided it into 2 TPs 1:1 and 2:1
  • #307
  • Nov 28, 2023 10:09am Nov 28, 2023 10:09am
Quoting brabus8001
I don't have selected currency pairs yet, so I'm entering all pairs. I don't know which ones are best for this strategy. I know that I need a larger selection of inputs because I have too many Sl for TP.I'm wondering what other entry criteria to use to increase the winning percentage. When entering a setup, I always take a screenshot and describe from 1 to 5 how good I think this setup is. On Saturday, after one week, I analyze all entries. I think this is a good way to learn the strategy.
First thing in the morning I scroll though 20 fx pairs plus BTC, Gold and Oil... I go through all pairs in the Daily, 4hr and 1hr charts.
When I see a setup, I place the trade on my chart with the TradingView buy/sell thingy with stop at level of the end of the long wick, no set TP.
Then every hour I go through all pairs in the Daily, 4hr and 1hr charts, and update them.

When I feel like it, I will backtest further into the history on my most promising pair... I'm concentrating on backtesting the hourly's first.
Last night I made a crude Google Sheet and entered EVERY trade on my favorite pair that I have recorded in TradingView from 6th Mar '23 till yesterday.
1 hour chart
135 valid trades, 99 wins... 73% wins with TP at 0.5 of risk and 65% with 1:1 risk (TP at +1).


I never delete them... that was the start of my Data collection. I just wish I'd been doing it for years... but better late than never.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #308
  • Nov 28, 2023 11:00am Nov 28, 2023 11:00am
BTC is not my fav pair but I had to take this... the reentry after the stopout was based on a break and retest into a bullsish FVG.
The 1st entry was a bit over 2x, and the open trade has hit 10x but still running.
Combined over +3% so far on my FundedEngineer Challenge which was 6% down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #309
  • Nov 28, 2023 12:10pm Nov 28, 2023 12:10pm
Quoting pt49
BTC is not my fav pair but I had to take this... the reentry after the stopout was based on a break and retest into a bullsish FVG. The 1st entry was a bit over 2x, and the open trade has hit 10x but still running. Combined over +3% so far on my FundedEngineer Challenge which was 6% down. {image}
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  • #310
  • Nov 28, 2023 12:16pm Nov 28, 2023 12:16pm
Quoting Merka
{quote} {image}
I explained why I reentered... it was NOT a pinbar entry.
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In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #311
  • Nov 29, 2023 11:04am Nov 29, 2023 11:04am
These are my setups from today. 3x SL. (yesterday 4 SL) everything seems fine. EMA8 is broken, we have a trend, the candle is larger than 2/3. but something must be wrong. My efficiency is about 40%. maybe because I'm playing against the main trend, does it matter? does anyone have an idea?
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  • #312
  • Nov 29, 2023 2:59pm Nov 29, 2023 2:59pm
Hi, all three charts are in a clear downtrend. So I believe we will have a better chance with bearish pinbars.
  • #313
  • Nov 29, 2023 5:26pm Nov 29, 2023 5:26pm
On 4H chart, I saw that both EMA did not touch the candlestick wick. After checking all TF charts, I followed the uptrend on 15M chart as the combined EMAs touched on the top of uptrend candlestick wick. I placed the BUY bias at 2043.80 to hit the RRR 2.

Normally, I follow my RRR setup template (TP: 10pips, 20pips, 40pips). I sometimes see the opportunity and go for more than 40pips TP.
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We only trade when there is AGREEMENT. Get 1% Better Each Day!
  • #314
  • Nov 30, 2023 11:58am Nov 30, 2023 11:58am
Today I analyzed M30, H1, H4 Gold, and I already know where I am making a mistake. It's not about entries, it's about money management. in the H1 time frame, winnings reach up to 66%. RR 2:1, i.e. exactly as written in point 49. This strategy is very profitable, but without good risk management and a trading plan it is unprofitable. I see that I have been in trade for 2 years and I still have a lot to learn. a good strategy is less than half the battle. Is there anyone who can help me create a good trading plan?
  • #315
  • Edited 11:51pm Nov 30, 2023 9:09pm | Edited 11:51pm
Quoting brabus8001
Today I analyzed M30, H1, H4 Gold, and I already know where I am making a mistake. It's not about entries, it's about money management. in the H1 time frame, winnings reach up to 66%. RR 2:1, i.e. exactly as written in point 49. This strategy is very profitable, but without good risk management and a trading plan it is unprofitable. I see that I have been in trade for 2 years and I still have a lot to learn. a good strategy is less than half the battle. Is there anyone who can help me create a good trading plan?
Pick one pair, backtest it for AT LEAST 100 trades on a single time frame (day, 4 hr, 1 hr etc).
Record the winning trades max profit.
Then filter your data for 1:1 wins, 1:2 wins, 1:3 wins etc.
With data you can build a risk plan for that pair and time frame.
Without data you are lost!

How you manage risk is determined by your risk appetite, which is influenced by your brokers leverage, AND whether you are on a Prop Challenge or a personal account etc.
5% risk per trade on a personal account may be manageable, but even 1% risk is regarded as max risk on a Prop Firm Challenge.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
  • #316
  • Dec 3, 2023 9:58am Dec 3, 2023 9:58am
ONLY trade with the Trend... no trend, no trade!

On D1 chart, I saw the 8EMA & 16EMA moving up further since they changed the trend due to their crossing each other at the candlestick. I went for BUY trades.
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We only trade when there is AGREEMENT. Get 1% Better Each Day!
  • #317
  • Dec 4, 2023 2:52am Dec 4, 2023 2:52am
Quoting pt49
{quote} Pick one pair, backtest it for AT LEAST 100 trades on a single time frame (day, 4 hr, 1 hr etc). Record the winning trades max profit. Then filter your data for 1:1 wins, 1:2 wins, 1:3 wins etc. With data you can build a risk plan for that pair and time frame. Without data you are lost! How you manage risk is determined by your risk appetite, which is influenced by your brokers leverage, AND whether you are on a Prop Challenge or a personal account etc. 5% risk per trade on a personal account may be manageable, but even 1% risk is regarded...
So I did. This is very difficult and tiring because the brain subconsciously searches for profitable transactions. while viewing the same chart for the 3rd time, I still noticed SL transactions. the results are surprising. currency pairs that I thought were potentially profitable were not. thanks for the tip, without data it is impossible to build money management.
  • #318
  • Dec 4, 2023 2:57am Dec 4, 2023 2:57am
Quoting deaftrader
ONLY trade with the Trend... no trend, no trade! On D1 chart, I saw the 8EMA & 16EMA moving up further since they changed the trend due to their crossing each other at the candlestick. I went for BUY trades. {image} {image} {image} {image}
The main trend has no meaning. you need to do historical analysis. Without this data you are lost.
  • #319
  • Dec 4, 2023 8:55am Dec 4, 2023 8:55am
XAUUSD RRR 1:2 & 1:3 TP hit along with 8EMA & 16EMA touching the wick at entry of 2068.78. I prefer focusing on XAUUSD.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: screenshot.png Size: 26 KB
We only trade when there is AGREEMENT. Get 1% Better Each Day!
  • #320
  • Dec 4, 2023 4:34pm Dec 4, 2023 4:34pm
Quoting deaftrader
XAUUSD RRR 1:2 & 1:3 TP hit along with 8EMA & 16EMA touching the wick at entry of 2068.78. I prefer focusing on XAUUSD. {image}
Your charts would be easier to read without the watermark on them... just my opinion.
In the days of old when sailors were bold, and seldom if ever contented.
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