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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #87,541
  • Nov 26, 2023 2:40pm Nov 26, 2023 2:40pm
USDJPY price action on the H4 time frame went sideways on Friday after a bullish attempt to retest the 150.00 horizontal resistance. Recent ‘wicky’ prints favour northward market engineering but the 150.00 area should be significantly breached northward first.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #87,542
  • Nov 27, 2023 9:26am Nov 27, 2023 9:26am
Quoting carlne
I'm new to foreign exchange (FX). Could you please explain which indicators led you to suggest going short on the USD/JPY at 123.40?
Welcome. I think you will find that most of the good traders don't use indicators. If all one needed to make money in Forex was an indicator, it wouldn't have taken you this long to join us. People would be lined up at the door. My best advice... open a demo account at $1000. IF you can move that 1000 to 1,000,000, then you are ready for live trading. Until then your attempts will more than likely only serve to feed the system. Learn Elliot wave. Then learn Price Action. Finally look at YouTube for help on perfect entries. If I were to speak to my younger self this is what I would suggest.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #87,543
  • Nov 27, 2023 12:14pm Nov 27, 2023 12:14pm
right on Q
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Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #87,544
  • Nov 27, 2023 4:57pm Nov 27, 2023 4:57pm
It is unclear whether interest rates on the US dollar will fall, but even if they did, it would be foolish to sell the US dollar, which has a much higher interest rate than the Japanese yen. As a result, it is normal for the dollar to remain strong for several years.
  • #87,545
  • Nov 28, 2023 6:17am Nov 28, 2023 6:17am
The Bank of Japan announced that the market value of its government bonds was significantly lower than its book value, resulting in unrealized losses of 10.5 trillion yen, the largest ever.
On the 28th, the Bank of Japan released its financial statements for April to September of this year, and the market value of government bonds held by the Bank of Japan was 576,378 billion yen as of the end of September this year. The book value is 586,878.1 billion yen, which means that there is an unrealized loss of 10.5 trillion yen, a sharp increase from 157.1 billion yen at the end of March this year.
This is because Japan's long-term interest rates rose as the Bank of Japan decided at its Monetary Policy Meeting in July to allow long-term interest rate fluctuations from 0.5% to 1.0%.
The Bank of Japan has so far purchased large amounts of government bonds as part of its monetary easing measures in order to keep long-term interest rates low.
However, as long-term interest rates rise, the valuation of government bonds declines, which resulted in large unrealized losses on the large amount of government bonds held.
The Bank of Japan assumes that it will hold government bonds for the long term until maturity, so ``financial soundness will not be compromised.''
However, some market participants have pointed out that if interest rates rise further in the future, ``there is a risk that the financial and currency confidence of the central bank, the Bank of Japan, will be shaken internationally.''



https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/fe...4fedb4498a10ff
  • #87,546
  • Nov 28, 2023 7:20am Nov 28, 2023 7:20am
Quoting ty235685
The Bank of Japan announced that the market value of its government bonds was significantly lower than its book value, resulting in unrealized losses of 10.5 trillion yen, the largest ever. On the 28th, the Bank of Japan released its financial statements for April to September of this year, and the market value of government bonds held by the Bank of Japan was 576,378 billion yen as of the end of September this year. The book value is 586,878.1 billion yen, which means that there is an unrealized loss of 10.5 trillion yen, a sharp increase from...
means what?
  • #87,547
  • Nov 28, 2023 8:02am Nov 28, 2023 8:02am
Quoting FreeGary
{quote} means what?
Experts say that raising interest rates on the yen risks taking on more debt. As a result, the value of the yen will fall.
  • #87,548
  • Nov 28, 2023 8:03am Nov 28, 2023 8:03am
Quoting FreeGary
{quote} means what?

Focus on this
[quote=COGSx86;14669055]right on Q {image}[/quote

TY is talking fundamental news that while useful... tends to be more swing trade related
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #87,549
  • Nov 28, 2023 9:44am Nov 28, 2023 9:44am
what happen? Why the sudden crash
  • #87,550
  • Nov 28, 2023 10:36am Nov 28, 2023 10:36am
A couple more days of this and we may be able to resume buying IMO. Wave 5 on the 4hr appears to be nearing the finish of wave 3. My target to the downside is 144.6. Which will represent the end of an ABC consolidation of the buying we experienced this year. Buying from there. High probability we go sideways first unless there is no Xmas rally in the major market. Let's see.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #87,551
  • Nov 29, 2023 6:53am Nov 29, 2023 6:53am
Quoting FreeGary
what happen? Why the sudden crash
US interest rate expectations shifted after a hawkish FOMC member suggested cuts could begin soon. The treasury needed to sell a ton of 2s, 5s, and 7s this week.

Sentiment is noticeably bullish for US bonds at the moment, but now that the big duration auctions are done until mid December, expect US Core PCE Price Index to surprise to the upside tomorrow. The market is always wrong.
  • #87,552
  • Nov 29, 2023 4:07pm Nov 29, 2023 4:07pm
Today I got about $900 in swap points for 200 lots a day, which is not a small amount if you add it up. The Japanese yen, which has no interest rates, is in a difficult position.
  • #87,553
  • Nov 29, 2023 8:24pm Nov 29, 2023 8:24pm
Quoting ty235685
Today I got about $900 in swap points for 200 lots a day, which is not a small amount if you add it up. The Japanese yen, which has no interest rates, is in a difficult position.
Only today?
This is one investment in a bucket of thousands!
  • #87,554
  • Nov 29, 2023 10:33pm Nov 29, 2023 10:33pm
Quoting JourneyLife
{quote} Only today?
That's right...but it depends on the day, but today I got twice as many swap points as yesterday.
  • #87,555
  • Nov 30, 2023 3:14am Nov 30, 2023 3:14am
Quoting ty235685
{quote} That's right...but it depends on the day, but today I got twice as many swap points as yesterday.
Oh.... so it is just short-term thing.
This is one investment in a bucket of thousands!
  • #87,556
  • Nov 30, 2023 5:54am Nov 30, 2023 5:54am
Quoting Velarcus
{quote} US interest rate expectations shifted after a hawkish FOMC member suggested cuts could begin soon. The treasury needed to sell a ton of 2s, 5s, and 7s this week. Sentiment is noticeably bullish for US bonds at the moment, but now that the big duration auctions are done until mid December, expect US Core PCE Price Index to surprise to the upside tomorrow. The market is always wrong.

Yep. I think the dollar has two weeks of up action coming. Next turn around d mid month imo
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #87,557
  • Nov 30, 2023 8:43am Nov 30, 2023 8:43am
UJ. Buying for the next two weeks. 1HR and 4HR seem to show that we may be done with the 5 legged ABC to the downside. We MAY still get another hit to the downside this week just to satisfy the 145ers, no SL for now. One trade Exploratory lot
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #87,558
  • Nov 30, 2023 3:35pm Nov 30, 2023 3:35pm
Well, I was wrong about the PCE, but today’s data (Personal Income, Claims, Chicago PMI, and Existing Home Sales) were still better than expected… as expected.
And up baby, up we go:
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The how is always less important than the why.
  • #87,559
  • Dec 3, 2023 2:43pm Dec 3, 2023 2:43pm
USDJPY price action on the daily time frame went sideways after breaking below the 149.00 horizontal support area. Nevertheless, the technical impulse favours bears. The 145.250/144.000 horizontal support area (green) is a potential target of a successful bearish follow-through.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

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Do your homework, follow the footprints of smart money
  • #87,560
  • Dec 6, 2023 2:27pm Dec 6, 2023 2:27pm
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Do you have any proof of the intervention? I only see people TALKING about the possibility of one.
well yeah. Got confirmation in the BIS quarterly review.
You have an IQ lower than 90 if you interact with this user.
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