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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #87,521
  • Nov 22, 2023 12:07am Nov 22, 2023 12:07am
LOL i out then it go up. -_-"
  • #87,522
  • Nov 22, 2023 8:25am Nov 22, 2023 8:25am
Quoting FreeGary
LOL i out then it go up. -_-"

You can, but being so close to 151 it may be less stressful to just drop the trade on the next retrace up. The 4hr appears to have peaked, but if so a retracement is in the wings. I think 150.1 area. Then we will need to finish the three leg down of the retracement. Someone quoted 143.. it is possible. Then I think we continue higher. If the market calls for an Xmas rally like it usually does the dollar will need to take a nap, and UJ longs will be in hibernation mode.

When you posted your post it had already hit the bottom and was consolidating. Just remember every price gets two turns. Once when they decide, and again when the crowd decides. So every bad trade will give you one and sometimes even two chances to get out with little and sometimes even no pain. You just have to be patient and wait for it to come back. Also have the account to sustain the wait.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #87,523
  • Nov 22, 2023 8:33am Nov 22, 2023 8:33am
Quoting Tradder
Hi, I have hedged it .To be frank I don’t have much idea.May be, interest rate cut will bring it down….hoping .If u have any suggestions plz guide me…thanks
If my count is right we have one more leg up on the shorter time frames then we turn negative again. The negative move to the upper 144 area. Once there will check structure to see if she turns upwards again.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #87,524
  • Nov 22, 2023 8:39am Nov 22, 2023 8:39am
How long do u think will it go up…before coming back.As ipreviously mentioned 150?.Is it cos of Boj intervention or something else cos other JPY pairs not moving like this.
Thanx
  • #87,525
  • Nov 22, 2023 8:41am Nov 22, 2023 8:41am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} You can, but being so close to 151 it may be less stressful to just drop the trade on the next retrace up. The 4hr appears to have peaked, but if so a retracement is in the wings. I think 150.1 area. Then we will need to finish the three leg down of the retracement. Someone quoted 143.. it is possible. Then I think we continue higher. If the market calls for an Xmas rally like it usually does the dollar will need to take a nap, and UJ longs will be in hibernation mode. When you posted your post it had already hit the bottom and was consolidating....
Ya i know it will come back up but just got too excited and happy finally it turn green thus i close it. but if i were to hold on to what i was intending to do, i would make big profits....

How do ppl able to hold for few hundred pips. omg my mindset.. i need to train it
  • #87,526
  • Nov 22, 2023 8:42am Nov 22, 2023 8:42am
Quoting Tradder
How long do u think will it go up…before coming back. Thanx

Hey Tradder are you still holding the shorts? How much swaps are u paying?
  • #87,527
  • Nov 22, 2023 8:55am Nov 22, 2023 8:55am
Hedged it…now it’s kind of situation….mm.Thank god it’s swap free.
  • #87,528
  • Nov 22, 2023 9:18am Nov 22, 2023 9:18am
Quoting FreeGary
{quote} Ya i know it will come back up but just got too excited and happy finally it turn green thus i close it. but if i were to hold on to what i was intending to do, i would make big profits.... How do ppl able to hold for few hundred pips. omg my mindset.. i need to train it

If this is an issue for you trick your brain. I have an account that I trade where the funds are crypto and show in BITs. Because my mind can only ballpark the true value of said coin, it looks like demo money to me. You can also change the profit to Pips on mt4.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #87,529
  • Nov 22, 2023 9:24am Nov 22, 2023 9:24am
Quoting Tradder
Hedged it…now it’s kind of situation….mm.Thank god it’s swap free.
Just remember. Try not to close the hedge until the DAILY chart has turned bearish. Any money you make has to be in new trades, and these would be better only held 24 hours at the most. So you don't get stuck in another one. Shit.. if you can. Leave this account to marinate and just fund a new one IMO. Might be less stressful. Because if you try to drop the hedge too soon, you might get caught between bases. Learned this the hard way.
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #87,530
  • Nov 22, 2023 9:52am Nov 22, 2023 9:52am
Quoting COGSx86
{quote} Where elese can you get 5%??? {image} {image}
Wow how did these levels get called?

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Large thrusts that are confirmed 90% of the time with ATR signaling projection zones, through deviation, October 3rds thrust setting the zones for the following two months with micro thrusts that have given exact price turning points at 142, or 100. 42 is the number of the universe, displayed on the chart for everyone to see.
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #87,531
  • Nov 22, 2023 10:00am Nov 22, 2023 10:00am
Just to add, go view 2017-02018s November December, we are following the exact pattern. Rates are appearing to retreat, for the next 2 years. UJ party time. GO overlay October-November-December every year, they all follow a similar pattern. USD peaks out twice and the slow retreat with potential retest of the high come Christmas time.
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
  • #87,532
  • Nov 22, 2023 10:11am Nov 22, 2023 10:11am
Quoting Tradder
How long do u think will it go up…before coming back.As ipreviously mentioned 150?.Is it cos of Boj intervention or something else cos other JPY pairs not moving like this. Thanx
Cheers Tradder!!! I am so glad you are still with us, despite the rough patch!!!

The bigger scale trend is up, so much so that one must not underestimate it, as its 2021 2022 move has not been weakened by comparable down moves as of yet. And could continue.
(IF)Once back above the highs, again, like 2022 move, height potential probabilities can suddenly become uncalculatable, because of rarely before seen situation. Best buy and trail in this case, with proper risk management (see my USdJPY shares for example of what I mean)

Also, the trend has shown time and time again to be stronger than BOJ interventions. Therefore, I prefer to rely on technicals first, without ignoring the second

And lastly, a fun wish to all here reading:
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If I don't mention SL and/or TP = longer-term setup possibly in the works!
  • #87,533
  • Nov 22, 2023 11:26am Nov 22, 2023 11:26am
UJ 4HR
closing my longs. One short on the board. Looking to take out the lows before the xmas push.
One market short on the board. Others short stops
Targeting an ABC to the downside.
Still a high potential it will hit 150.1, but this appears to be it for the US market day.

While I typed.. first short SL blown
Waiting on 150.1 and will build from there.
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Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #87,534
  • Nov 22, 2023 11:31am Nov 22, 2023 11:31am
Closing GJ too. Had a nice run. Looking for it to take out the recent low after a little more room to the north.

Trend up has had no retracement of note since 184.5. When there is no retracement of note. You are most likely IN a retracement. Under that premise this move up was the retrace of the bearish movement. If that is the case that makes this a wave 4 just like UJ, and the 5 should take out the floor.,
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #87,535
  • Nov 23, 2023 6:39am Nov 23, 2023 6:39am
Quoting Tradder
Hedged it…now it’s kind of situation….mm.Thank god it’s swap free.
o nice. previously i short UJ. the swap was painful. Is ur long in green?
  • #87,536
  • Nov 23, 2023 6:42am Nov 23, 2023 6:42am
Quoting OBsayMkMoney
{quote} Just remember. Try not to close the hedge until the DAILY chart has turned bearish. Any money you make has to be in new trades, and these would be better only held 24 hours at the most. So you don't get stuck in another one. Shit.. if you can. Leave this account to marinate and just fund a new one IMO. Might be less stressful. Because if you try to drop the hedge too soon, you might get caught between bases. Learned this the hard way.
wow if only i saw this earlier. my EU is in deep shit. deep buy shit n deep sell shit. n i out the hedge too soon now im left with deep sell n my acc is in red water......
  • #87,537
  • Nov 23, 2023 7:05am Nov 23, 2023 7:05am
Quoting FreeGary
{quote} wow if only i saw this earlier. my EU is in deep shit. deep buy shit n deep sell shit. n i out the hedge too soon now im left with deep sell n my acc is in red water......
just one of each? Or multiple?
Don't compare your trades to others. Most often the masses are the asses
  • #87,538
  • Nov 23, 2023 8:01am Nov 23, 2023 8:01am
multiple....

now i leave one side already. using other account to trade my UJs...
  • #87,539
  • Nov 24, 2023 3:59am Nov 24, 2023 3:59am
I'm new to foreign exchange (FX). Could you please explain which indicators led you to suggest going short on the USD/JPY at 123.40?
  • #87,540
  • Nov 25, 2023 12:30pm Nov 25, 2023 12:30pm
Chat GBT

“After this weeks moves with the usdjpy pair what can you tell me as an outlook for this week”
”
The outlook for the USD/JPY currency pair seems to be influenced by a variety of factors based on recent market analysis. The Japanese yen has demonstrated renewed strength, and the USD/JPY pair has broken beneath a previous level of dynamic support. The yen is the most heavily shorted it has been since at least 2020, which poses a risk of a short squeeze that could add to its momentum. The analysis suggests that if there is a pullback, the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) could form potential dynamic resistance. Currently, USD/JPY finds support at 146.50, followed by 145.00, and there might still be room for movement before the pair reaches oversold conditions according to the Relative Strength Index (RSI)【47†source】.
The overall value of the yen has lifted across a basket of currencies, but it still has a significant way to go to recover lost ground【48†source】. Additionally, the latest Commitment of Traders (CoT) report indicates that any further strengthening of the yen may compel traders who are short on the yen to cover their positions, which would further boost its value【49†source】.
These factors combine to create a nuanced outlook for the USD/JPY pair, which will likely be influenced by ongoing economic data releases, central bank policies, and market sentiment. It's important to continue monitoring key economic indicators and central bank communications for a more accurate forecast.”
Learn, a forex trader must, unlearn and relearn he will.
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